NFL.com Urges Broncos to 'Supplant' Drew Lock at QB to Challenge the Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are once again representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Coming off of their third straight year of hosting the AFC Championship Game, the only team ever to have done so, the Denver Broncos and AFC West face an exceedingly difficult task in supplanting the Chiefs.
Fortunately for the Broncos, new GM George Paton has faced similar circumstances at his previous NFL stop. Serving as the assistant GM for the Minnesota Vikings, it would have been relatively easy for Paton's team to fade into obscurity in contending with the Green Bay Packers for a decade, led by future Hall-of-Famer and one of the best to ever play the quarterback position in Aaron Rodgers.
Still, for as good as Rodgers has been in his career, there's never been a quarterback to start off quite like Patrick Mahomes has for the Chiefs. Unfortunately for Denver, even for as good as Rodgers was in Green Bay, not even he compares to Mahomes at his current clip.
The debate on the Broncos’ quarterback position will likely rage long into the offseason, but according to long-time NFL analyst Gregg Rosenthal, if Denver is to mount a chance against the juggernaut Chiefs, Paton must dive back into the quarterback market to find The Guy. Here's how Rosenthal put it in a recent column laying out how each AFC team can supplant the Chiefs in the Super Bowl sooner rather than later.
"The Broncos must: supplant Drew Lock.
“Last offseason, John Elway didn't even want to bring in a quality backup quarterback behind Lock. Now the Broncos should be looking for someone to displace Lock, not compete with him. It would be a welcome surprise if Lock showed growth in Year 3 -- if Denver ended up with two viable QBs, that would be a good problem to have -- but Lock has too rarely shown a feel for the position to rely on him. The Broncos have the No. 9 pick in the draft and a raft of exciting, young skill-position weapons ready to play with a veteran starter. They would be the perfect landing spot for an established quarterback, although one potentially sensible fit came off the board when the Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Rams.”
Paton Already on the Hunt
The Broncos were reported to be extremely interested in Stafford, but in the end, Paton opted not to outbid the L.A. Rams, who wound up sending QB Jared Goff, two first-rounders, and a 2021 third-rounder to Detroit. The reporting on what Denver was willing to offer for Stafford has been different depending on who you want to believe, but Denver was interested in adding Stafford to upgrade the position and give the team a better chance to win against the Chiefs.
With Stafford off the market, the options become increasingly slim for Denver to “supplant Drew Lock” in the words of Rosenthal. Obviously, the most interesting and enticing name is that of Houston's 25-year-old star (currently) Deshaun Watson.
Watson, sporting a full no-trade clause in his contract, had become increasingly disgruntled with the horrific situation in Houston surrounding ownership and leadership that it came to a full boil with the QB threatening to sit out the 2021 season entirely unless the Texans trade him.
If Watson becomes available, the Broncos must make a call. Watson is likely the second most valuable player in the entire NFL right now given his level of play, age, and the fact that he plays the quarterback position.
It cannot be stressed enough how valuable the QB position is in today’s NFL. Its value is to the point of being a 'have' or 'have not' in the league and if you're the latter, you might as well pack in expectations as your odds of contending for a Super Bowl mimic that of being struck by lightning. Sure, it could happen, but that would be like depending on winning the lottery to pay off a mortgage.
If Watson is available, Denver should call and it sounds like Paton will. If not, the other possible veteran options don’t entice all that much. However, the Broncos could look towards the NFL draft.
Draft is a Fail-Safe for QB
Sitting at pick No. 9 overall in a class with four quarterbacks expected to go in top-15 picks (in any draft) in Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, the Broncos may wind up being aggressive given Paton's signaling already that he is looking to upgrade the QB room.
Will one of the 'Big Four' (sans Lawrence, who will not go anywhere but Jacksonville) land in Denver? That remains to be seen.
Just like how the market for Stafford reached a level not palatable for Paton and the Broncos, it is very possible the GM will look at the cost of moving up for a QB of his choosing in the draft and find it too costly. A draft pick is no sure thing, and if the Broncos only like one specific QB out of the rest of the 'Big Four' and they simply can’t swallow the cost, Paton's next best option is to roll with Lock once again in 2021 with a veteran free-agent signed to raise the floor of the QB room.
If that is the direction for Denver this offseason, Paton will need to set up the team to give Lock the best chance to succeed while also, and more importantly, accumulating assets to position the Broncos to be aggressive in the QB market in 2022 (if needed). Whether that means trading away current players or trading back this year to stock up future capital, Denver needs to put itself in a better position to obtain a quarterback via trade or the draft.
A Chance Remains
This does not mean that Broncos Country should completely write off Lock. Given his statistical output to date, the vast amount of snaps he already has played (after starting nearly four years at Missouri, he is not 'raw' despite sloppy footwork and accuracy).
At 25 years of age entering his third year, the odds are low that Lock will become a viable long-term franchise quarterback. If it happens, he'll defy the odds and become a statistical anomaly based on his production/sample size.
That doesn’t mean it can't happen. The (current) greatest QB ever in Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick and was an absolute outlier. Those unicorns do emerge, but make no mistake, they're exceedingly rare.
Betting explicitly against trends and data is how many folks wind up out of a job. However, not many quarterbacks in Lock’s current (poor) company also faced the circumstances Lock did in 2020 playing in another new offensive scheme, in a weird pandemic-limited offseason, and surrounded by such a heaping of young and new players.
There are so many qualifiers around Lock that it makes it impossible to place so many excluding variables around him. In the end, the view of Lock’s struggles comes down to Paton and the opinion of the Broncos’ staff.
Were all these mitigating factors reasons for Lock's overall poor play last year? Or are they just excuses? That remains to be seen.
Bottom Line
Whether the Broncos should be 100% committed to Lock as The Guy in 2021 and beyond depends on who you ask, but Rosenthal apparently has seen enough to believe Lock won't give the Broncos a chance against the Chiefs going forward. Do Paton, Vic Fangio, and the Broncos’ decision-makers feel the same? Time will tell.
No matter which decision the Broncos make, if the team wants a chance of overcoming the Chiefs any time soon, former cornerback Aqib Talib put it best.
“It’s a quarterback-driven league, and the Sheriff (Petyon Manning) left the building," Talib said.
Until Denver finds a solution at quarterback, whether that be Lock or not, the team’s best efforts to contend in the AFC West will remain in vain.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
