Elway, It's Time To Listen To Start Fielding Some Trade Offers
As the saying goes, when it rains, it pours.
After blowing a last-minute go-ahead score for the second time in three weeks, the Broncos find themselves winless through four weeks of the season. And as I write this on a Monday afternoon, Broncos Country has also been alerted that Bradley Chubb will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
You've got to be kidding, right?
What does this injury to Chubb mean for the direction of the team? Does it change their plans?
Well, the short answer is really 'no'. Before the injury to Broncos' star pass rusher, the season was all but a lost cause already. Chubb going down doesn't really change much as far as their outlook goes.
It does, however, allow the guys behind him on the depth chart, like rookies Malik Reed and Justin Hollins, to get significantly more playing time. There's your silver lining in this awful breaking news.
But beyond this injury, the results of this Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars did, in fact, change the plans for the remainder of the season. As I wrote about prior to the game, a loss to Jacksonville at home against their backup QB would be the tipping point for the Broncos to enter a full rebuild.
Look, I get it. The Broncos have technically been rebuilding for at least a couple of seasons now. But has the front office truly embraced it? The team's moves this offseason certainly don't indicate they are in a rebuild.
Why trade for Joe Flacco and not just start Drew Lock? Why max out all of your cap space by signing high-priced veteran free agents like Ja'Wuan James and Kareem Jackson? Why not just go with a total youth movement?
Let's just talk about the reality of the situation for a second. The Broncos are 0-4. And that 0 doesn't look to be changing to a 1 anytime soon given the upcoming schedule.
The next three opponents are the Chargers on the road, the Titans at home, and the Chiefs at home. The Broncos' best hope for those games is to go 1-2, putting them at a paltry 1-6 on the season.
With that in mind, it's time to start fielding offers from other teams now and not wait until the deadline. But the question then becomes, who do they trade?
Von Miller: Keep
Let's start with the most polarizing topic in Broncos Country. Should they trade Von Miller?
First off, I don't think the Chubb injury has any material impact on discussions around whether or not Miller should be traded. That said, the Broncos aren't really in the best position to be trading Miller.
Why?
Von's not going to net a return that's more valuable than having him remain on the team. You aren't going to get a Khalil Mack-level haul for Von Miller. You just won't.
For starters, Mack was just 27 at the time he was traded to the Bears. He was, and still is, an ascending player in his prime. I know it's fun to poke run at the Raiders, but they sold Mack to the Bears at his absolute maximum value.
Back to Von. Miller is unquestionably still an elite pass rusher. At age 30, he's kind of right in the middle of being in his prime and being an 'old vet;. There is no question, though, that Von has a lot of very good years left in the NFL.
But…
If you're another team and you're looking at trading for him, what are you realistically going to offer for an aging pass rusher that will average close to $25M in cap hits for the following two seasons? The number of teams who 1) have the cap space to take on that contract 2) have a need at pass rusher and 3) feel Von would be their missing piece, is a very slim list.
Netting back two first-round picks for Miller isn't happening. If the Broncos are lucky and can find a willing trade partner, the best they can probably hope for is a first-rounder that's not at the very end of the round, plus a mid-to-late-round pick or two.
So ask yourself? Is Denver going to draft someone in the bottom of the first round that helps the team rebuild any better than keeping a great leader in Von Miller? Probably not.
While the idea of trading Von is intriguing, and will surely catch more fire over the next few weeks, he needs to retire a Denver Bronco.
Chris Harris, Jr.: Trade
Before the season even started, many were in agreement that this would be Harris' last season with the Broncos. And that was when many thought this team would actually be decent and win games. Sitting at 0-4, you have to think the undrafted [eventual] Ring-of-Famer is playing his last season with the team.
So do you trade him?
Well, that depends on what you'd get back for him. Since Harris will be an unrestricted free agent this upcoming offseason, you would have to make sure you're getting more back in a trade for him now than you would net in a compensatory pick after he signs with another team.
The best compensatory pick any team can receive is a third-rounder. Harris just turned 30 a few months ago so that will surely factor into his next contract. The highest-paid CBs in the league right now (who are in their prime) are getting no more than $15M per year. If Harris were able to land say a three-year/$42M deal, he would likely only return a fourth-round compensatory pick.
You also need to keep in mind that compensatory pick would be a 2021 selection. And the value of a 2021 fourth-round pick is roughly equal to a 2020 fifth-rounder.
With all that said, the Broncos should trade Harris this year, but the team has to get at least a 2020 third-round pick back (and hopefully more) for it to be worth it. This would guarantee a better return than Denver could hope for if the team just let him walk as a free agent this upcoming offseason.
The last important consideration here is that Harris could very well sign a one-year deal this offseason, which would result in no comp pick for Denver (similar to what will happen with Shaq Barrett). So if you can get the pick in hand now, it would avoid this as a possibility.
The other benefit to moving Harris now is an increase in playing time for the Broncos' young cornerbacks. There is a lot of youth behind Harris on this roster — Isaac Yiadom, De'Vante Bausby, Duke Dawson, and Devantae Harris. Having a better idea of what you have with these guys going into the offseason would be invaluable.
It would be incredibly difficult to trade a player like Chris Harris, Jr., but if he's going to walk after the season anyway, you need to maximize the return you can get on him.
Emmanuel Sanders: Keep
Similar to CHJ, Sanders is also on the last year of his contract. Their situations are also similar in that they both have a plethora of youth behind them on the depth chart. However, trading Emmanuel isn't as straightforward as it is with Chris.
If the plan is to start Drew Lock at some point this season, you want to make sure he's set up for success as best you can, which means keeping the Broncos' top receiving weapon on the team.
In addition, the trade market for someone like Sanders is unlikely to be very active. I'm sure at a certain point you have to start feeling the waters to see what you can get for him, but barring a major injury to a WR on a Super Bowl-caliber team, it just doesn't seem likely.
And if the return is only a fifth-round pick, the value Sanders brings to Lock's NFL debut would likely outweigh that selection.
Derek Wolfe, Ron Leary, Shelby Harris, Joe Flacco: Try to Trade
The reason I say 'try to' trade is because I doubt any team out there would be willing to give up anything more than a conditional late-round pick for most of these guys, if anything at all.
Ron Leary is surely in his last season as a Bronco, right? His four-year, $36M contract sure didn't work out the way the Broncos had hoped. The team can move on from him next offseason for a minimal hit — and it's best they do so.
Derek Wolfe is unlikely to generate much interest due to recent injuries and his nearly $11M cap hit this year.
Shelby Harris is an interesting option but given he's playing out of position and has not played well so far this season, why would another team trade for him?
Joe Flacco is probably the most intriguing option of this group. The Broncos gave up a fourth-round pick to acquire him this offseason.
Wouldn't it be nice to just undo this trade and get that pick back? There are a lot of teams with injured QBs out there right now who could maybe benefit from a trade for Flacco. But there are two major issues here:
- Drew Lock can't return until Week 9, so realistically you don't want to move Flacco until then (unless you want to play Brandon Allen).
- Flacco hasn't exactly shown that he'd be an upgrade to many of the backups that have been starting for teams with injured starting QBs (Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, Jacoby Brisett, etc.)
Who knows what could happen though. Remember when the Vikings gave up a first and fourth-round pick for Sam Bradford?
Bottom Line
At the end of the day, it's time for the Broncos to start thinking about 2020 and beyond. That starts with evaluating and developing your young talent, as well as maximizing potential returns on soon-to-be ex-Bronco players.
What do you think, Broncos Country? What types of moves should the Broncos be making between now and the trade deadline?
Follow Trevor on Twitter @TrevorJudge and @MileHighHuddle.
