Examining if Broncos Should Draft a QB Based on Where They're Picking
With the Denver Broncos and Russell Wilson poised to part ways and the team eliminated from playoff contention, eyes are turning toward the 2024 NFL draft. The Broncos will be looking for a new quarterback, which means the quarterback class will be heavily discussed for the remainder of the process.
When the news broke that the Broncos were benching Wilson, I analyzed six quarterbacks from this year's draft. However, it didn't answer whether the Broncos should force a selection of one of those six quarterbacks.
That's what I'm examining today. Should the Broncos force a quarterback selection?
When you look at the top six quarterbacks for this year, three are clear first-round picks: USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye, and LSU's Jayden Daniels. All three are poised to be top-8 picks. That is reinforced when you look at the teams who will be picking in the top-8, especially the seven teams confirmed to be picking in that range already.
The Chicago Bears have the first pick cemented, thanks to the Carolina Panthers. Chicago could go quarterback or keep Justin Fields.
The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots have been linked heavily to early quarterbacks. Then we have the Arizona Cardinals, who could stick with Kyler Murray, which many reporters have hinted at.
There are also the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans. The Titans are probably in a similar spot as the Bears and Cardinals. Maybe they stick with Will Levis, but they could look to add competition. There is only one team out of the seven who will 100% be out on a quarterback, and that's the Los Angeles Chargers, with Justin Herbert.
The expectation is all three top quarterbacks will end up among those six teams. Even if not, there is always the possibility of teams moving up.
When looking around the NFL, 10-12 teams could be in the market for a new quarterback. Some teams will find a QB in free agency, and it's still extremely early to project those possibilities.
If those three quarterbacks are gone, that leaves Oregon's Bo Nix, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. All three should be available in the 11-16 range the Broncos will be picking, but the question is, are any of them worth picking that high?
The answer can vary from analyst to analyst, but I don't see any of them as worth a pick higher than a late first-round pick to get the fifth-year option. There are serious concerns about each of them and how they would transition to the NFL.
Quarterback is the most valuable position, but you can't force a pick, as that tends to turn out poorly for the team (see: Lynch, Paxton). So, should the Broncos force a pick?
No, but if one of the top three falls, Denver will want to trade up. There's also the possibility that Nix, Penix, or McCarthy rise throughout the draft process.
If so, the Broncos should go for it. But the Broncos can't force the pick if the value isn't close enough, which applies to any position.
Not forcing a pick could lead to a year of Jarrett Stidham starting, but that would keep the Broncos' options open in future years. Even if you take a huge step back for a year, having options and future draft picks is still better for the Broncos' long-term outlook over reaching for a quarterback pick because of need.
There are still four months of the draft process, with college games still happening. A lot can change, and the conversation about quarterbacks in Denver will continue for the next few months.
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