Broncos' Round 1 Pick Will be Determined by 3 Crucial Games in Week 18
Despite beating the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, the Denver Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention. The focus now shifts to the 2024 NFL draft.
The Broncos face conflicting motivations in the season finale, as a loss would be better than a win relative to the NFL draft. Adding to the stakes of Week 18 is the Las Vegas Raiders' seven-game winning streak over Denver.
In 2019, a Drew Lock-led Broncos squad beat the Raiders and found themselves picking No. 15 overall, which led to the selection of Jerry Jeudy. A loss in that game would've had Denver picking at No. 10, which would have offered a shot at future All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs.
The Broncos face a similar incentive conflict this year. The eight-win Broncos can't earn a pick higher than No. 11 and can't go lower than 16. After running through all 496 possible outcomes for Week 18 (excluding ties), the likelihood of where Denver will be picking is clear.
This isn't me arguing that Denver should try to lose. Some Broncos fans could never root for a loss, while others can view a short-term defeat as a long-term triumph if it's best for the team's future. Netting a higher draft pick often is best, especially when it comes to the first round.
Had the Broncos lost to the Chargers, they would've had a chance to get a top-10 pick. That victory cements Denver's place outside of the top 10.
So the question is, do you want Denver picking 11-13 with a loss to the Raiders, or is picking 14-16 with a win not enough of a difference to root for a loss against the most hated divisional foe riding a multi-year winning streak?
Let's examine how the Week 18 situations could play out relative to the Broncos' draft positioning. For the Broncos to pick at No. 11, both the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers have to win, with Denver losing to the Raiders.
That's how those three games have to shake out to guarantee pick No. 11. There are more games that matter, of course, but those are the big three. In any variation of those three, Denver can't pick higher than 12 overall.
As for picking at No. 16, many 8-8 teams need to lose, with Denver winning. With everything that would go into it, the chances of the Broncos picking 16th overall are slim.
The most likely spots the Broncos will land in the draft are No. 12 overall with a loss (about 55% of the outcomes) and No. 15 with a win (about 75%). With a loss, No. 13 is still possible, with the second-highest probability, but that's the highest pick the Broncos could net, whereas 14 would be the lowest if they win in Week 18.
So, a loss puts the Broncos in the 11-13 range, while a win positions them between 14-16. Is a loss to the Raiders worth the difference?
Every Bfan will have a different answer, but when you look at the 2024 NFL draft prospects, it may not be. After the top 8-10 prospects, many players are closely rated at this point of the draft process.
The Broncos would be out of range for any of the top three quarterbacks, all of whom are expected to go in the top-8. To wit: USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye, and LSU's Jayden Daniels.
The next three quarterbacks may not be fated to be drafted in Round 1, outside of a team opting to pull the trigger late in order to get the benefit of the fifth-year option afforded to first-rounders.
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