How the Kittle/Kelce Deals Hint at Noah Fant's Future with Broncos
Two top tight ends signed contract extensions that appear at first glance to re-set the market for the position.
So what does that mean for Denver Broncos'tight end Noah Fant when it's time to extend him?
Of course, Fant has three years left on his rookie deal, plus there's the fifth-year option the Broncos may choose to exercise. Thus, it will be a while before it's time to really think about an extension for Fant. But even now, it's worth getting a lay of the land.
Kittle vs. Kelce
But let's look at the extensions the San Francisco 49ers gave George Kittle and the extension the Kansas City Chiefs gave Travis Kelce, and see how those extensions may really impact what Fant could in a contract in the future.
I'll refer people to the breakdown Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap gave for the extensions for Kittle and Kelce. To sum up, Kittle got a player-friendly contract that's in line with some of the higher-paid receivers, while Kelce got a team-friendly deal in which he isn't getting a lot of new money upfront.
The Kelce extension is the perfect example of why the average-salary-per year isn't the best way to measure contracts. New money, full guarantees, and cash flow are the best ways to do that. APY salary can be useful to an extent, but it's not the only thing to consider.
We should also consider the role Kittle and Kelce have in their respective offenses. Kittle has been the unquestioned No. 1 receiving target the past two seasons. Last season, the Niners acquired Emmanuel Sanders in a trade from Denver and then-rookie Deebo Samuel emerged down the stretch, so both took some of the load off of Kittle.
Sanders has since signed with the Saints and the Niners drafted Brandon Aiyuk to fill his spot. We'll find out this year if either he or Samuel can become a true complement to Kittle.
With Kelce, there was a time when he was the unquestioned No. 1 receiving target the Chiefs had. But in more recent years, Tyreek Hill has emerged into a complementary player and, some would argue, the No. 1 target. I personally view Kelce and Hill as 1a and 1b, but Kelce is no longer the primary target.
Looking Back at a Former Bronco
We thus need to consider what Fant might bring in terms of production. To get a better understanding of what could be reasonable to expect from him, we can look to a former Bronco everyone should know: Hall-of-Famer Shannon Sharpe.
Sharpe's time with the Broncos saw his ranking in the receiving order vary from season to season. There were times when he would be in the 1a/1b category, with a couple of seasons in which he was below that, and one season when he was the clear No. 1 target.
In five of his first 10 seasons with the Broncos, Sharpe was targeted at least 100 times. A player who gets targeted at least 100 times would certainly be a 1a/1b type of player.
Sharpe had just one season in which he was the unquestioned No. 1 target, that being 1993 when he had 110 targets, and the next player on the list, Derek Russell, had 74 targets. Furthermore, Sharpe got more production on his targets, with 81 receptions and nine touchdowns, compared to 44 receptions and three touchdowns for Russell.
Sharpe could have been in Kittle's position had it not been for the Broncos acquiring Anthony Miller in 1994, followed by Rod Smith emerging several years later when Miller declined. Ed McCaffrey's emergence also helped take some of the load off of Sharpe, though he still had plenty of involvement in the offense.
What it Means for Fant
I bring up Sharpe to remind Broncos fans that the Hall of Fame tight end was often called upon to be at least in a 1a/1b role, even the No. 1 role, when it comes to targets.
The good news for Fant is he's surrounded by more talent this season compared to what surrounded Sharpe in 1993. Courtland Sutton has already proven he can be the No. 1 guy and Jerry Jeudy, thus far, could threaten to be the guy who forms the 1a/1b with Sutton.
But when you look at Sharpe's production, you saw a player who could step into a bigger role when necessary, and even when he was surrounded by more talent, he was still productive.
That's what the Broncos are looking for from Fant. Either he needs to show he can be part of the 1a/1b with Sutton until Jeudy fully develops, or show he can be productive even if he doesn't put up eye-popping numbers.
And if Fant falls into more of a complementary role, he isn't likely to garner Kittle money and truly re-set the tight end market. Fant would more likely to be in Kelce's situation, in which he'll be compensated well but not get a contract that busts the market.
"I want to be looked at in the same group as those guys," Fant said following Friday's practice. "If I can be in the same conversation as those guys, then I’m doing what I’m supposed to trying and getting on that path I want to be on. Obviously, both of those guys have had a couple of years of experience in the league. I still have a lot to learn and progressing. I definitely want to get there one day.”
Bottom Line
Again, it will be a few years before the Broncos will have to roll up their sleeves on a new contract for Fant. But we should remember that context matters when looking at his production and what that means for a future contract.
Fant is in a good situation in that he doesn't have to carry the burden in targets and receptions, as Sharpe had to back in 1993. This should allow him to settle into a role in which he can maximize production from his targets.
How many younger players the Broncos keep after their rookie deals expire remains to be seen, but if they all produce as expected, the Broncos shouldn't have to re-set the market to keep Fant.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
