Josh Allen's Extension has Limited Impact on Baker Mayfield Negotiations
Josh Allen signing his extension with the Buffalo Bills sets the market for the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield, but it doesn't negotiate the contract and it doesn't impact how this front office operates.
It was a little disappointing not to see Mayfield and the Browns get their extension done first, but it's hardly the end of the world. Beyond getting it done in terms of timing to negotiate other contract extensions to players like Denzel Ward, perhaps Ronnie Harrison or Wyatt Teller, there was a sense that the Browns could get a deal done that would allow Mayfield and his agents to briefly champion the size of the deal they signed, which would then alter the demands of both Allen and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, since they would then insist on getting more than Mayfield.
Allen and Jackson were always going to get more than Mayfield. After an All-Pro season, Allen is negotiating at the peak of his powers while Jackson was the unanimous MVP in 2019. Mayfield was the co-rookie of the year and was downright incredible the final 12 games of the 2020 season including the playoffs. That's why the Browns want him on a long term deal. Both sides have every expectation that Mayfield is going to have an outstanding season in 2021 that gets him the respect and adoration nationally that he already has in Cleveland.
Allen's contract provides a framework for the Browns and Mayfield to work out the necessary details so long as Mayfield wants to do a deal now, but the Browns aren't going to suddenly change how they negotiate contracts with players.
Traditionally, they come to a number for a player and don't change. Agents appreciate the fact the Browns are straight forward even if they don't always love the numbers.
As an example, Nick Chubb's deal is pretty good for the Browns but it also works out well for Chubb. Had the Browns simply allowed Chubb get to free agency this coming year, they could have applied the franchise tag. It would've cost a projected $12.836 million in 2022.
The risk for Chubb was that if he got hurt or was simply ineffective, that might be the only big salary he gets. In the event he stays great, the Browns could have simply repeated the process.
Instead, Chubb averages a hair under that figure over the next two years which enables the Browns to finesse their payment structure to benefit them. They're paying him $5.2 million in 2021, which enables them to keep Kareem Hunt on the team another year. Then he gets $14.85 million in 2022. On the salary cap, it's $20 million over their two years, which does provide savings for the Browns. This is where the the team wins on the deal.
Chubb wins because the Browns owe him $4 million guaranteed in 2023, which brings the total paid to him for two seasons to $24 million. If he's still dominant, he forces the Browns to keep him and earns another $11.775 million in salary. He gets the certainty he wants, stays with the team he wants while ensuring his financial future.
If there's a contract where the Browns came away with a pretty incredible value, it's John Johnson's deal. Johnson averages $11 million per year and the structure fits the escalation of the cap perfectly. It seemed at the time he could get somewhere in the range of $14 million per year.
The Browns aren't getting over on players. Instead, they are finding ways to take their market value and using it to fit within their salary cap plan harmoniously. That's not likely to change with Mayfield, despite his status as the team's franchise quarterback. It may even be part of their sales pitch. It enables them to surround him with talent so he can get paid while pursuing his goals on the field.
Josh Allen's contract could provide one major benefit for the Browns in that it shifts the expectations for what Mayfield will get. Early in the process, figures like an annual average of $35 million were thrown around as acceptable. Since Allen is averaging $43 million, that $35 million figure becomes laughable.
Had the Browns agreed to a deal with Mayfield that averaged $38 to $40 million annually before Allen, both fans and media likely would've panned the deal. Now, they might be applauded for it. That immediate reaction isn't enough of a reason not to negotiate a deal, because they have a plan, want to stick to it. Still, it doesn't hurt that the sticker price reactions to a Mayfield deal won't be as stark.
Allen's deal is a significant one for the Bills. The deal starts in 2023 when the salary cap is set to explode and it's likely to reflect a new reality in the NFL. The risk for the Bills is obvious in that it requires Allen to be consistently great. Largely a dynamic impacted by Tom Brady's run with the New England Patriots where he's often taking up , no quarterback has ever won the Super Bowl taking up in the modern era of free agency with a higher percentage of the salary than 13.1 percent. Oddly enough, it was Steve Young in the current structure's first season way back in 1994.
In his 2020 Super Bowl run, Brady accounted for 12.25 percent of the team's salary cap. In his five with the Patriots, he was over 10 percent just once. He's appeared in nine, so it limits how many AFC quarterbacks can even get to the Super Bowl, let alone win it.
In a post Brady world, there may be a shift to quarterbacks able to win on upper echelon deals without a year where their cap hit is relatively small a la Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts in 2006 when he took up 10.4 percent. This is where one might argue some caution with Allen's deal. Depending on how the cap escalates, the figure could be altered, but Allen's impact on the salary cap for 2023 and 2024 are projected to be 17.7 percent and 16.3 percent respectively.
That doesn't make it a bad deal, but it puts a significant amount of pressure on Allen to carry this team over the life of the deal.
Theoretically, the impact on the cap might be what the Browns are looking at in terms of a deal with Mayfield. So much of this comes down to Mayfield's willingness to accept a deal now as opposed to waiting. That entirely depends on what's important to Mayfield. Is he looking to maximize his earning power in the NFL or focusing on legacy and winning? There is no wrong answer, but it would certainly impact the dynamic of negotiations.
The Browns may have their number and Mayfield may have his. If they don't match and neither side is willing to budge, a deal will be deferred a year, perhaps two. That doesn't mean either side has lost interest in continuing this relationship, but would provide another season to evaluate.
Should the Ravens and Jackson agree to a deal, likely to be worth even more than Allen's, it shouldn't impact Mayfield's either, but further elucidate the market. The hope is the Browns and Mayfield can come together on a contract extension that would clarify the team's future and the most important step in keeping this young core together for years to come.
