Cleveland Browns: From Historic Rookie Season To Sophomore Slump; What Changed For Baker Mayfield, What Happens Next
In an unforgiving league that punishes players for losing their edge in terms of their preparation, if even only for a moment, Baker Mayfield lost his ahead of the 2019 season. The Cleveland Browns quarterback was coming off one of the best rookie campaigns in NFL history, was viewed as a savior for a franchise and a fanbase that had been seeking one for two decades and a huge star nationally.
Adoration, national advertising campaigns and adding a star wide receiver in Odell Beckham, success had never come so easy in Mayfield's football career. He took a moment to enjoy it and combined with terrible coaching and the harsh reality of the NFL, Mayfield went from a rookie sensation to a quarterback facing questions entering his third season in the NFL.
Through training camp and into the preseason, Mayfield and the Browns had convinced themselves it would be easy. They would go out there and with added star power and experience, they could regain the form they found the second half of 2018 as a threat to score on any possession, able to put themselves in contention to win any game.
One possession into the regular season, going right down the field against the Tennessee Titans for an easy touchdown, it was. After that, save for a few moments of brilliance, the season was a disaster and so much of it, Mayfield and the offense seemed genuinely stunned and confused why they couldn't simply get it going like they had the previous year.
Mayfield said the right things in camp and he worked to get better. He just didn't have that same edge he's had dating back to college and even high school. The doubt that fueled him for his entire life was replaced with adoration and unbridled enthusiasm. Even entering his final season at Oklahoma, Mayfield was coming off the video from his arrest, doubts about his ability to play in the NFL or compete for a national championship and the Heisman trophy. The Oklahoma Sooners fanbase believed in him, but few else did.
Entering the 2019 season, not only did fans embrace Mayfield, he got to take a victory tour over commentators who had doomed him to fail or threatened to retire if he was the selection by the Browns with some having to eat humble pie or something just as bitter. That love, that unending appetite from fans is addictive. And during the 2019 season, Mayfield found himself caught unsure of himself, looking for answers. He wasn't as prepared as he thought, wasn't as ready as he hoped and it was too late to do anything about it.
The Browns hired Freddie Kitchens as head coach, whom Mayfield was fond after their success together in 2018. Unfortunately, Kitchens hired Ryan Lindley to be his quarterbacks coach. Lindley has enjoyed success helping quarterbacks prepare for the NFL Draft as a private coach, but he simply wasn't ready for this job. The drop off from Ken Zampese, the quarterbacks coach in 2018 to Lindley in 2019 was significant. Mayfield did not look nearly as prepared for games.
Additionally, Kitchens who enjoyed a ton of success as the offensive coordinator the latter half of 2018 wasn't up to the job of head coach nor was he equipped to be his own offensive coordinator, answering to no one. Kitchens could call plays, but he was a poor planner and the team would enjoy success while on script in 2018 with help from offensive coordinator Todd Monken. After that, Kitchens took far less input and would even call plays the team hadn't practiced, undercutting Monken's presence and wasting his talent. Unprepared players were being asked to perform plays they hadn't been repping and then the head coach punished some of them for being unable to adjust on the fly.
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both played hurt the entire season, starting in the summer. Beckham suffered a groin injury that probably should've been addressed as soon as it was discovered, but whether he insisted on fighting through, the Browns were unwilling to go into the season without their star acquisition or both, it wasn't. Landry's hip was a problem, though he had one of the best seasons of his career in spite of it. It all but eliminated their ability to practice during the season and limited what they could do in training camp.
The Browns also lost Rashard Higgins about ten minutes into the season and David Njoku a week later, both due to injuries.
And though it was never truly acknowledged, Mayfield took a hit against the Titans that seemed to hurt his throwing hand. It was small, but it enough to where it started impacting his ability to zip passes quite the same way. He also suffered a hip pointer against the Seattle Seahawks, which zapped any real possibility of getting meaningful reps during the bye week as he had to focus almost entirely on rehab. Finally, he took the hit against the Pittsburgh Steelers to his throwing hand that forced him to go out of the game to be evaluated to see if he suffered a break. Like most everything else that went wrong with the season, Mayfield's health was off almost from the start.
One of the consistent elements of 2018 was the creation of a solid pocket up the middle. The combination of Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler reliably gave Mayfield the ability to step up in the pocket with confidence. The tackle play wasn't great, but being able to work forward enabled Mayfield to avoid pressure coming around the edge and often created the ability to escape the pocket, extend the play and find plays down the field.
In 2019, with Zeitler traded and 2018 second round pick Austin Corbett incapable of replacing him, the Browns were left with Eric Kush, who often gave up ground while blocking. That limited the area Mayfield could work, making it easier for opponents to get around the edge to hit him. When he would step up, he was far likelier to get hit. It started causing Mayfield to drop his eyes and hold the ball, which only caused him to take more hits. Wyatt Teller taking over at right guard midway through the season improved the situation, but the damage was largely done by that point.
After a year of disappointment, humiliation and just physical pain watching people take potshots at him, saying he's a one-year wonder and a fluke, it's difficult to imagine Mayfield hasn't regained the edge he briefly lost. Mayfield has consistently found ways to use spite and doubt as a source of fuel in his drive to be the best. He's never been provided with a bigger supply of it than he has entering this season.
The hiring of Kevin Stefanski as head coach is critical. He has to be the right coach for Mayfield as he's installing the third different offense he's had to learn in the NFL and his fourth in as many years dating back to Oklahoma.
Along with that, going from Lindley to Alex Van Pelt guiding his development, even if he's not labeled the quarterbacks coach, is an important and necessary upgrade. Van Pelt's experience alone should make sure that Mayfield is properly prepared on a weekly basis.
Heading into the 2020 season, the notion that this is a make or break season for Mayfield is overstated. He can't play like he did last year, but everything about last year was out of character for Mayfield. Any notion that's in a similar situation as Mitchell Trubisky was last year for the Chicago Bears is difficult to take seriously as is the idea that there's any room for a quarterback competition in Cleveland.
One of the reasons that coaches like Stefanski and Josh McDaniels wanted to come to Cleveland was Baker Mayfield. He was a draw. And the organization wasn't going to hire someone that wasn't investing in his success. So they aren't simply going to dump him after this year or replace him with Case Keenum, short of some unforeseeable disaster.
Keenum was brought in because if Mayfield were to get injured, he's had success in this offense, leading the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC Championship in 2017, Stefanski included. Even Keenum has noted he's here to help Mayfield. His experience in this offense and having played well in the NFL, he can be a valuable sounding board and set of eyes on the sideline of games.
Another factor for that is COVID-19. Teams have already lost minicamps and OTAs. It's not clear if it will impact training camp or if it does, how much teams would lose in terms of on-field practice. The fact that teams are already going to be working at a deficit in terms of practice would likely mean that starters and players expected to contribute will get a higher percentage of reps than a normal year.
Teams have to find ways to rep and evaluate the lower half of their roster, but when it comes to quarterback in particular, it's going to be really difficult to get a meaningful number of reps for Keenum. For that matter, it looks like it will be a real challenge to find reps for third string quarterbacks, save for some preseason games. Third string quarterbacks are largely responsible for their own work and development as it is. This year may push the boundaries on that to the extreme.
That same equation comes into play when it comes to potentially evaluating the Browns as a whole as well as Mayfield specifically. He cannot play as poorly as he did in 2019, but there's little reason to think that's a likely outcome. It looks like an outlier as opposed to the norm based on his previous five years of playing. Even the difference between 2018 and 2019 is odd, compared to the other rookie quarterbacks who have started both seasons.
TD% INT% Y/A
Baker Mayfield 2018 5.6% 2.9% 7.7
2019 4.1% 3.9% 7.2
Lamar Jackson 2018 3.5% 1.8% 7.0
2019 9.0% 1.5% 8.9
Sam Darnold 2018 4.3% 3.9% 6.9
2019 4.1% 3.6% 6.9
Josh Allen 2018 3.1% 3.8% 6.5
2019 4.3% 2.0% 6.7
Beyond the historic improvement of Lamar Jackson, perfectly cast in the Baltimore Ravens offense, which enabled him to win the league MVP, there are two things that stand out from these numbers that should provide reason to be optimistic with Mayfield.
First, Baker Mayfield was way ahead of everyone else as a rookie, but he's the only one that regressed in his second year. Some will argue that the league figured him out, but it stands out that he's the only one. Everyone else improved, even if only slightly.
Second, Mayfield's 2019 season is not much worse than either Sam Darnold or Josh Allen, but they improved while Mayfield regressed. The interceptions kill Mayfield compared to Allen, but he generated more per pass than either Darnold or Allen.
So while Mayfield's second season was certainly disappointing, it's hardly the end of the world. There are a number of elements that can be attributed to the terrible number of interceptions he had; a poorly planned and called offense, the lack of chemistry with Odell Beckham, and bad luck among them. The bottom line is it was the second worst in the league behind Jameis Winston and it must improve. If it simply gets down to the 2.9% number Mayfield had in 2018, it would've meant throwing 16 interceptions as opposed to 21 in 2019. That's a significant difference.
The offense the Browns are installing under Stefanski is designed to put Mayfield in position to succeed. Based around a philosophy that emphasizes making runs look like passes and passes look like runs, the goal is creating even a moment of hesitation from the defense as they attempt to diagnose the offensive play call.
That should allow Mayfield to thrive utilizing playaction, whether it's in the pocket or on the move. Particularly with the offseason additions of Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, the offense should utilize a significant amount of outside zone going to the left. Wills may be a rookie switching sides to left tackle but paired with Joel Bitonio, they should be able to create running lanes to that side, allowing Mayfield to roll right off of playaction where he can use his legs and Conklin is there to protect his front side. With Chubb and Kareem Hunt, teams may be forced to invest more resources to stop the run, creating larger passing windows as well as some running lanes for Mayfield going to the right.
Ultimately, Baker Mayfield will have to go out and prove it, regardless of circumstance. No one is going to feel sorry for the Cleveland Browns on Sundays. It's just difficult to ignore the amount that Mayfield was able to do right as a rookie despite virtually zero reps with the ones in training camp or the preseason. To go from stepping into a game the Browns were losing against the New York Jets, lead them to that win as well as six others while setting records that year to regress the amount he did this past season was difficult to imagine. The issues went far deeper than Mayfield in 2019, but rectifying it for 2020 begins with him.
