The Looming Decision on Kareem Hunt
The Cleveland Browns have a number of major decisions to make in the upcoming offseason. One of the more interesting considerations they'll have involves running back Kareem Hunt, who will be a restricted free agent. The Browns could simply re-sign him to a new deal or put different tenders on him, which may signal an intent to at least listen to trade offers for him.
Hunt missed the first eight games of the season due to a suspension. He also had a sports hernia repaired in that time. In the seven games he's played for the Browns, he has accounted for 40 carries for 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground at 4.4 yards per carry. Hunt also caught 34 passes on 40 targets for 253 yards and another touchdown.
That accounts for 61.1 yards per game and over a 16 game season would amount to 978 yards at 5.7 yards per touch. When adding in the blocking Hunt offers, that would be a pretty solid season. It's also similar to the seasons Duke Johnson had for the Browns in 2016 and 2017, where he compiled 872 yards at 6.9 yards per touch and 1,041 yards at 6.6 yards per touch respectively.
Another year in this system or a change of coach could improve the output for Hunt. The Browns could be happy enough with what Hunt did this season to offer him a multiple year offer and try to keep him at below market value, seeing an opportunity to keep him and Chubb together at a reasonable cost. Incidentally, general manager John Dorsey made this exact move with Duke Johnson, signing him before their falling out and the resulting trade before this season.
Only the Browns know just how much they believe in Hunt's attempts to change his life since the video came out of him at a Cleveland hotel trying to attack a woman while being restrained. As talented as Hunt is, the team has to weigh that risk and any potential fallout from another incident, were it to occur, both in terms of what it would mean to lose the player on the field as well as the damage to the team.
More likely, the Browns will put a restricted tender on Hunt, which if signed, is a one-year deal before he would then become an unrestricted free agent next year. Depending on the level of the tender, if another team were to sign him, that would determine what draft pick the team would have to give up to sign him as compensation. There's also a monetary difference in the tender for the player depending on which is used. The higher the tender, the more money the player would receive. A first round tender would come with a contract worth between $4 and $5 million.
The Browns could place a first round, second round or original round tender on Hunt. Hunt was a third round pick, so if they went with an original round tender, that would be the compensation for another team to sign him. The Browns could also trade the restricted rights if they were so inclined. So if the team were to place a second round tender on Hunt, but a team was offering a third round pick in 2019 and a conditional pick the following year as an example, the Browns could accept that offer and trade the rights.
The level of tender the Browns place on Hunt could indicate the likelihood they are willing to move him. A first round tender would suggest the Browns have every intention of keeping him while a second or original round tender could indicate they are at least willing to entertain trading him.
If he does sign his tender, the Browns would keep him another year before he'd be an unrestricted free agent and potentially have a bigger market with far more control of his future. The Browns would either meet the open market demands or potentially get a compensatory draft pick down the road when he signs with a different team.
Another consideration is the blocking scheme the Browns employ. With Nick Chubb, the team's feature back, the Browns enjoy the vast majority of their success utilizing a zone blocking scheme, particularly running behind Joel Bitonio and J.C. Tretter. Chubb's combination of vision and patience enables him to find running lanes and create explosive plays. Chubb averages 5.1 yards per carry and has 11 explosive plays on the season.
Meanwhile, when they hand the ball to Hunt, it's largely behind gap blocking, which has a predetermined hole. The play puts more emphasis on the offensive line to be able to execute the play. There's nothing necessarily wrong with having backs excel utilizing two different blocking schemes, but it's more the offensive line has to practice and execute at a high level. Hunt is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and zero explosive plays on the season, so it's debatable if it's worth it. The Browns as currently constituted seem to simply execute the zone scheme more effectively.
A new coach, should they go that route, might be more inclined to be employ a heavier gap scheme, which could increase Hunt's value to the Browns. However, if they embrace the zone blocking scheme the Browns already execute at a high level with Chubb, they might be more inclined to add another zone runner to compliment their feature back, enabling a smoother transition from back to back over the course of a game or within drives. In addition to reducing the amount the offensive line has to focus on in practice, they would theoretically be better at those areas they can put more time and energy.
Ultimately, any decision is going to be governed through the potential value of Hunt. If teams are both comfortable with Hunt's off field and love the player he was with the Kansas City Chiefs, leading the league in rushing, they might be inclined to make a significant offer. There are a handful of teams where a game changing running back could completely change the complexion of their offense; teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
The Browns could certainly lose some production at the running back position by trading Hunt, but they may be able to address another area of concern on the team and create a more logical offense overall. As useful as Hunt has been, he's hardly been the game changing force he was expected to be, which unfortunately fits in with so much of this team this year. The coaching staff may bear a significant amount of the blame for that, but the front office still has to make a decision this offseason.
