2023 NFL Draft Profile: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
C.J. Stroud is a former five-star recruit out of Rancho Cucamonga, California. He was highly touted coming out of high school, as he was rated as the third overall QB in the 2019 recruiting class. He elected to attend Ohio State University after his high school career.
Stroud redshirted during his freshman season with the Buckeyes in 2020. He entered the 2021 season as a redshirt freshman starter on one of the best teams in the entire country. Despite sky-high expectations for the young signal caller, Stroud was able to perform immediately in college.
He amassed 4,435 yards passing and 44 touchdowns to just six interceptions in his debut season. He was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and First Team All Big-Ten. He was also named a Heisman Finalist, losing out to Alabama quarterback Bryce Young.
Heading into 2022, the bar was raised even higher for the young quarterback. While he did take a minor step back, he did put some more monster numbers up with the Buckeyes. He totaled 3,340 yards passing and 37 touchdowns to just six interceptions as a redshirt sophomore. He is, yet again, a finalist for the Heisman Trophy this year.
Positives
Timing/Anticipation
Stroud is a pure pocket passer. While the pocket passer is a dying breed in this new era of football, this archetype can still survive (and thrive) if the quarterback can excel in a few key areas. A few of those areas are timing and anticipation.
Stroud had the benefit of working in an offense with a ton of NFL-caliber weapons. With that, he was able to build up the confidence and the timing needed to get the ball to these weapons in space.
For example, Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in this class at layering his throws over the middle of the field. He does a great job of using his eyes and his body language to create space over the middle. He is fearless with these types of passes, and he usually nails his target if he is kept clean:
Another key element with this category is how well a quarterback understands route combinations/reads. Can the quarterback properly diagnose the coverage that they are facing and understand where the primary read is (based on that coverage)?
With Stroud, I have very few concerns in this area. He works the two-man game quite well and has shown the ability to be proficient in attacking the safety down the field. This throw below is a good example of him driving into a pass to the deep dig route on a dagger concept:
Timing is everything when it comes to quarterback play. A QB has to trust that his receivers will be in the right spot when it is time for the ball to come out. Receivers also have to trust their quarterback to throw them open based on the defenders' leverage (especially against zone coverage).
This is another area where Stroud excels. He can stand to be a bit more decisive with his underneath reads, but he has an understanding of leverage and timing that most young quarterbacks don't have. On both of these throws below, Stroud is throwing hitch routes to his receivers against linebackers with their backs turned.
These are fairly simple rhythm throws, but Stroud is showing the ability to distribute as a pocket passer on these plays:
On top of being on time and precise with his throws, Stroud has flashes of pure excellence (and touch) on some passes. This throw against Iowa may be the best we see from a draft prospect all offseason.
Stroud lofts this pass in between three defenders with perfect placement and touch. This is an NFL-level throw that is dropped beautifully in the bucket for a big gain:
Placement
Football is a game of inches. The difference between being a great passing offense and a subpar one can literally come down to ball placement. Accuracy is the ability to get the ball in the general vicinity of the correct target, placement is the ability to put passes where they need to be.
With skill position players at WR and at CB being so equal, the difference between a big gain and an incomplete pass can be mere inches. Quarterbacks have to be able to protect their receivers by placing passes in advantageous spots.
Stroud is a passer that understands this, and he is fairly precise with his throws into coverage. In the clips below, Stroud is protecting his receivers by throwing them away from coverage. These are perfect passes that are nearly impossible to defend for opposing defensive backs.
Deep Accuracy/Touch
Stroud has one of the prettier deep balls in college football. He may not be able to throw a dart 70 yards down the field, but he is phenomenal at dropping touch passes in the bucket to his elite receivers.
These throws below are effortless gems down the field. He has excellent placement and timing on these passes out in space. Stroud may be a throwback pocket passer, but he can still operate an explosive offense (if he is given time to throw).
Reacting to Pressure (Good Side of It)
This final point is a bit difficult to explain, so it will show up in both the positives and the negatives of this article. In short, Stroud is two different quarterbacks when facing pressure in the pocket.
When he is locked into his target down the field, there is no amount of pressure that can phase him in the pocket. He hangs in there like a 10-year veteran, and he can deliver some absolutely beautiful passes while taking contact.
Stroud's numbers against pressure have been ugly this season (more on that in a second), but I was very impressed with his ability to hang in the pocket when he is locked onto a target:
Negatives
Reacting to Pressure (Bad Side of It)
The bad side of how Stroud reacts to pressure is... just about every other aspect of it. He has some really bad tendencies when he perceives pressure, like spinning to bail out of clean pockets and even getting happy feet when he can't find his read.
These aren't killers (by any means) for him, but something that I have learned over the years is that pressure response is a major indicator of NFL success at quarterback. The common theme among mid-late-round guys that hit is how well they move inside and outside of the pocket. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson have that poise and creativity within the pocket.
Stroud will get ample opportunity to improve in this area, but he needs to learn how to better manipulate the pocket and react to pressure at the next level. These bad tendencies need to be cleaned up early.
Lack of Mobility/Creativity
This next point goes hand in hand with the first one. The NFL revolves around the creative passer nowadays. How much success can a pure pocket passer that struggles to create (and struggles to throw off-platform) really have in this modern NFL?
Look at all of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Almost all of them are players that can create with their legs or players that can thrive off-platform. That simply isn't Stroud. He excels within structure, but the struggles come when he has to work outside of that.
The clips below show a few things that concern me quite a bit in his game. When he is moved off of his spot in the pocket, it rarely leads to good things for the offense. He has some functional mobility, but it doesn't translate well to success outside of structure.
My other concern revolves around his arm strength off-platform. His arm loses so much velocity when he is asked to throw on the move (especially when he is rolling left). In theory QB's never want to be throwing on the move, but NFL players are asked to do this quite a bit. This is an area that leads to a lot of issues for Stroud.
The Bottom Line
Stroud is seen as the "safe" QB prospect in this draft class, and he embodies that in a lot of ways. He is smart and accurate from the pocket, and he possesses the best touch in the entire class. However, there are a lot of reasons to be worried about his transition to the NFL.
Stroud is a throwback pocket passer that struggles when he is asked to work outside of structure and be creative. He was one of Pro Football Focus' lowest-graded QB's against pressure this season, and it shows on film. He doesn't have the mobility, the arm talent, or the natural feel to create when things break down.
In an NFL that has seen a recent rise in creative passers, where does a player like Stroud fit? As much as it pains me to say it, I see a player that is very similar to Jared Goff in a lot of ways. Goff was a number one overall pick due to his accuracy in college, and he wowed evaluators with his highlight reel touch throws.
If Goff were in this draft class, would he still go number one overall? How about top 10? That is the question that NFL evaluators should ask themselves with Stroud. I think there is a lot of good in Stroud's game, but the concerns with how he fits in today's NFL will be there come draft time.
Overall, I like Stroud as a prospect and I can see him being a productive NFL quarterback. While he may not have a high ceiling, he would still be a big upgrade over what the Indianapolis Colts' have trotted out there the past two seasons. If he is available when the Colts are selecting, I wouldn't mind them taking a swing on the productive Ohio State QB.
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