Shane Steichen's Offense Will Be Explosive in Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts have a new man at the helm, as former Philadelphia Eagles' Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was named as the team's head coach back in February.
Steichen is a rare offensive coach that understands how to mold his offense to his skill players (and quarterback). He is a true chameleon that can pull from numerous sources in order to best maximize offensive success. There is, however, one constant theme in Shane Steichen's history that he will bring to the Colts; explosive plays.
Marcus Mosher of Pro Football Focus and Locked on Cowboys does a fantastic job of tracking explosive plays. He tracks these plays by assigning rushes of over 10 yards and receptions of over 20 yards as explosives. According to Mosher, the Eagles ranked first in 2021 and second in 2022 in explosive plays on offense.
On the surface, one might think that the best way to create explosives is just by airing it out deep more than any other team. While Shane Steichen does adhere to a vertical passing attack, all yardage is created equal. A 20+ yard reception can be completed by throwing the ball down the field or by creating that yardage with yards after the catch.
In today's article, I dive into the various ways that Steichen builds his offense around the explosive play.
An Analytically-Based Offense
Shane Steichen is a football guy at his core, but his fundamental understanding of offense is rooted in analytics. Let's talk about his offense in Philadelphia through a comparison to the new age of NBA basketball.
Love it or hate it, the new era of NBA basketball revolves around lay-ups and three pointers. The most efficient and productive shot attempts are the ones that are nearly guaranteed points (lay-ups) or the riskier shots that can generate more points (three pointers). Shane Steichen subscribes to a similar style of passing offense.
Jalen Hurts last season, according to Pro Football Focus, attempted nearly 68% of his passes under 10 yards with an average depth of target of just 2.5. Those are the lay-ups and underneath passes with a greater chance to create yardage.
On top of that, Hurts also threw deep on 14.2% of his pass attempts, with an average depth of target of 31.8 yards. Over 80% of the Eagles' passing offense a year ago consisted of lay-ups and deep three pointers. The beauty of it all is that it led to one of the more explosive offenses in the entire league.
As my friend Anthony Amico says in the tweet below... mesh it, screen it, slant it. Then bomb it.
Yards After Catch Opportunities
The foundation for this explosive offense is in the underneath throws. Logan Radke put together a phenomenal study on the Eagles' offense from a year ago and what the team's most popular play-calls were.
He charted the Eagles as utilizing mesh calls on 21 separate occasions a year ago, including four calls in the Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs. This low ADoT play call had an explosive play rate of 25% on the season for the team.
He charted the Eagles as utilizing a perimeter wide receiver screen on 38 occasions last season. This play only had an explosive play rate of 5%, but it did produce multiple gains of 10+ yards on the year.
Steichen even mixed in a few dart screens to the tight end last year, a concept that netted the team an explosive play rate of nearly 43%.
These few concepts are extremely low depth of target calls that are designed to create yards after the catch. While they not have an extremely likelihood of breaking free, they are still calls that contribute to explosive offensive football in a multitude of ways.
Just to add some more numbers to back this point up, the Eagles ranked sixth in the NFL in yards after the catch per completion in both 2021 and 2022 with Steichen as the primary play caller.
Vertical Passing
Once Steichen has effectively peppered the opposing defense with underneath throws and yards after catch opportunities, then he can open up the passing game to what he truly wants it to be. He may be a chameleon that can adjust his style, but Steichen is a Norv Turner disciple at his core. He wants to attack teams vertically.
Going back to Logan Radke's study from earlier, it is easy to see the heavy Norv Turner influence in the playbook.
The Eagles called four verticals out of 2x2 sets on 54 different occasions this past season (for an explosive play rate of 19%). Once Steichen got teams out of the two-high shell with the underneath passing game/rushing game, he let his two star receivers win one on one shots vertically on the outside.
The Eagles called four verticals out of 3x1 sets on another 25 occasions last year (for an explosive play rate of 12%). If we combine this with the section above, that is 79 calls this past season of just four verts to attack down the field.
I can mix in a few other route combinations designed to attack vertically in this section like sail concepts and daggers, but it doesn't get more explosive down the field than good ole four verts. The Bruce Arians 2012 Colts would love to see this style of offense brought back to the team.
Again, to add some more numbers to what I'm saying, the Eagles ranked sixth in the NFL in 2021 in average depth of target (8.0) and eighth this past season in average depth of target (8.0).
The Bottom Line
Shane Steichen is going to bring explosive offensive football back to the Indianapolis Colts. He is a diverse coach in how he attacks defenses, but the biggest constant in his style of offense is creating big plays.
He understands that all yardage is created equal and that there are multiple ways to create these explosive plays. He can accomplish this through yards after catch opportunities and also through a pure vertical passing attack.
The bottom line is that Shane Steichen is going to rejuvenate a dull Colts' offense by leaning heavily into creating explosive opportunities... and I can't wait to see it.
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