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Are Colts Ascending at Ideal Time?

After a fourth win in five games with a balanced offense and stingy second-half defense, the Indianapolis Colts are making noise as a dangerous AFC team.

There have been reasons to doubt these Indianapolis Colts, but maybe it’s just like head coach Frank Reich says.

He spoke of his offense "ascending" at the right time after Sunday’s 44-27 road win over the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.

Based on four wins in five games, raising the Colts (9-4) to the sixth seed in the AFC, perhaps the same could be said for this entire team. Except for an ugly home loss to the Tennessee Titans, in which the Colts were missing five starters including defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, it’s fair to say Reich’s team has been playing some of its best football of the season lately.

The Colts made a strong Sunday statement in slamming through the Raiders on the road with season highs in points and 212 yards rushing.

After languishing in obscurity for much of the year, T.Y. Hilton has re-emerged as a four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver with four touchdown catches in three games, including two on Sunday.

Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, drafted in the second round in April to provide a home-run threat on any play, delivered a breakthrough performance with a career-high 150 yards rushing and two TDs in Las Vegas. That included a 62-yard TD rush in which the power back showed his speed by running away from three Raiders defenders. Run The Damn Ball, indeed.

Managing the offense well despite dealing with a turf toe injury that reportedly needs offseason surgery, 17th-year quarterback Philip Rivers has been playing exceptionally well in taking care of the football and utilizing all his weapons as the Colts’ spread-the-ball-around approach with as many as 11 targets has been hard on defenses. Rivers, who turned 39 last week, has bounced back from some shaky early moments to be quite efficient in completing 68.06% percent of his passes for 7.7 yards per completion with 20 TDs and nine interceptions. “Uncle Phil” has been on it.

And a fifth-ranked defense, for all of its troubles before halftime, knows how to slam the door shut in the second half. A noteworthy streak of four games without allowing a second-half touchdown came to an end with a Derek Carr scoring scramble in the final minute, but fact is, that was garbage time. The Raiders mustered just two field goals as the Colts offense pulled away.

Nickel cornerback Kenny Moore II snagged one of the best interceptions you will ever see with his right-handed theft of an end-zone pass.

He also forced a fourth-quarter fumble that the Colts recovered. Then safety Khari Willis cemented the outcome with the team’s fourth pick-six of the year.

Indianapolis Colts safety Khari Willis strikes a pose with defensive teammates after his pick-six in the fourth quarter clinched a road win on Sunday at Las Vegas.

Khari Willis (with ball) strikes a pose with Colts defenders after his pick-six.

If the playoffs were today, the Colts would venture to New York to face the third-seeded Buffalo Bills (10-3). But there’s still much to be determined in three regular-season games.

The Colts host the Houston Texans (4-9) on Sunday, then visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2), and close at home with the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12). Presuming the AFC South Division home games go according to plan, that Steelers game likely has serious playoff ramifications. The Bills beat the Steelers on Sunday night, which provides the head-to-head tiebreaker should they be able to make up one game. The Colts could provide that outcome.

Barring anything unexpected, the Colts’ best chance for improving their playoff standing is to win the AFC South. They’re tied with the Titans, but don’t have the division-record tiebreaker edge, which means the Colts need their rivals to lose. The Colts might need to win out to claim the division title and fourth seed. The Titans still have to play the Green Bay Packers (10-3), who are the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Colts beat the Packers, another reminder of what Reich’s team is capable of when playing well.

As much as Colts fans have every reason to be optimistic about what could happen, it’s also understood that there’s still some doubt. You don’t forget nor still understand how the Colts opened the season by giving the Jaguars their only win this season.

That improved Colts defense didn’t have a sack and hit Carr just twice on Sunday, which can’t happen when going up against playoff-caliber teams. And let’s be clear, the Raiders proved they aren’t playoff material. They can score, but the Colts exposed their defense, so much so that head coach Jon Gruden fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther after the game.

After an encouraging five-sack game against the Texans — in which Justin Houston had three as well as a safety and Buckner added two — Houston had one assisted tackle on Sunday. Buckner got four tackles and one QB hit.

The latest victory reiterated that players must make big-time plays when the games count the most. Hilton, Taylor, Rivers, Moore, and Willis did that.

Question is, can they do that against the Steelers in two weeks? And will this momentum carry through to the playoffs in January?

Skeptics fearful of a crash landing will focus on the reasons why these Colts can only accomplish so much.

Optimists who enjoy accentuating every positive are confident these Colts can contend for the AFC title (as crazy as that might sound).

Down the stretch we come, and say this for the Colts: They’re on the verge of earning a playoff shot to change more doubting minds and thrill faithful fans come January.