Last Decade of Colts' Drafts Graded by ESPN
ESPN took on the huge task of assigning a point value to each player and aggregate draft class for every team in the NFL for the last decade.
The Indianapolis Colts finished 14th of the NFL's 32 teams but had a tied for the eight-best record over that same time frame.
The formula, Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE), is skewed towards later round picks, because the higher picks are expected to do well. So in essence, first-round picks can only hurt your CAVOE score rather than help it.
To be fair, ESPN titles their article as "Best Value," but isn't hitting on a rookie quarterback or wide receiver good value compared to their second contracts as well?
That said, T.Y. Hilton was considered the best value pick of the last decade for the Colts.
Says ESPN:
Best class from 2012-2021 drafts: 2012. The class was highlighted by quarterback Andrew Luck as the No.1 overall pick. But it wasn't just Luck, who surprised the NFL by retiring in 2019, who made that draft stand out for the Colts. Former general manager Ryan Grigson also selected receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has 9,691 yards and 53 touchdowns in his career, and tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in that group. -- Mike Wells
The Colts didn't fare so well in the 2013 NFL Draft, and first-round pick Bjoern Werner had the lowest CAVOE score of -33.7. 2013 had the worst aggregate CAVOE score of -65.8 with running back Kerwynn Williams getting the highest return of just 3.3 points.
Werner lasted just three seasons with the Colts. He had 6.5 sacks before he was out of football after the 2015 season.
While Wells pegs the 2012 (38.4) class as the best for the Colts the last decade, the highest CAVOE score comes from 2018 (66.3), helping to highlight the discrepancy in the formula.
Second-round pick Darius Leonard got a 35.1 CAVOE score, second only to Hilton's 57.3. While fellow second-round pick linebacker Kemoko Turay was assigned the worst score of -11.9. Turay has started just three games for the Colts in his four seasons in Indianapolis.
Other players of note:
2016 OC Austin Blythe (21.8)
2020 RB Jonathan Taylor (18.6)
2015 OT Denzelle Good (18.6)
2021 ED Kwity Paye (1.8)
2015 CB D'Joun Smith (-22.7)
2016 S T.J. Green (-16.0)
2017 CB Quincy Wilson (-15.6)
The Colts may have finished middle of the pack in finding value in the draft according to ESPN's CAVOE formula, but hitting on Andrew Luck, who compiled a 55-33 record in seven years for the Colts, helped Indianapolis outpace their CAVOE score.
