Keeping it real about Colts-Chiefs
What’s a realistic expectation Indianapolis Colts fans should have when their team travels to Arrowhead Stadium to face the high-powered, unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night?
A caveat of “anything is possible” usually gets prefaced when making a bold assertion, but in this case, again, let’s be real about the Colts’ chances.
It would take nothing short of a miracle for head coach Frank Reich’s team, which is a 10-point road underdog, to pull off an upset. To be blunt, I’m not expecting a Colts win, nor should even the most optimistic of Colts fans. Hope is one thing, but counting on it, don’t make it worse for yourself.
When the Colts ventured to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs in January’s AFC Playoffs, one of my advance stories tried to be clever in using reverse psychology, the suggestion that the visitors didn’t have a chance. That’s what the pregame pub centered on. And nothing usually motivates an NFL player like the opinion that they don’t stand a chance.
Well, that turned out to be true. The Chiefs won 31-13.
This time, the Colts (2-2) are coming off an ugly 31-24 home loss to Oakland and are struggling mightily on defense without a sack in two games and have imploded trying to stop the run. The Chiefs (4-0) are once again one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL, led by reigning MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps Chiefs coach Andy Reid can keep the score down by just sticking to running the ball and chewing up clock? OK, perhaps not.
We’ve all seen Mahomes highlights because he makes everybody’s clips every week for doing something special. He’s got a great arm, he can run and he often does both to elude tacklers and turn a broken play into a sensational result. He entered the week with the most passing yards in the league at 1,510, and Mahomes has been sacked just three times. The Chiefs are second in scoring at 33.8 points per game while the Colts are 25th in points allowed at 25.5 per game.
That’s pretty simple math. Yeah, this could get ugly.
Factor in that the Chiefs are playing at home in primetime and looking to make a statement about their candidacy as legitimate Super Bowl contenders capable of dethroning the defending champion New England Patriots and expect the home team with that loud crowd to be fired up.
Colts defensive tackle Denico Autry, who leads the team with 2.5 sacks, says he loves these kind of scenarios, where their backs are to the proverbial wall.
“It’s a chance to show the world who we are,” Autry said.
No truer words could be spoken.
Despite the unexpected August retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck, the Colts are making positive strides toward becoming a solid team. Jacoby Brissett has stepped in and been decent so far as Luck’s replacement. Despite a slew of injuries, this team still has the potential to repeat in earning a playoff berth. At 2-2, they’re tied with the other three teams in the AFC South Division, a reminder that anything can happen.
But what fans hope they don’t see on Sunday night is a complete obliteration that would erode confidence that the Colts are still trending in a positive direction.
An uglier loss than Sunday to the Raiders would set the franchise back perhaps for this season in terms of public perception. Not trying to be overly skeptical here, but that’s the reality to a rout. People will come away thinking, “That was embarrassing” and “We’re really not very good.”
Should that blowout happen, everyone in the organization will be placed under the microscope as panic sets in with the fan base. Specifically, what will general manager Chris Ballard do about a defense that has seemingly regressed, albeit with 2018 NFL-leading tackler Darius Leonard sidelined for what will be a third consecutive game with a concussion.
Don’t underestimate the significance of that loss. “The Maniac” is a defensive eraser for the mistakes of others in addition to being able to make impact plays. He’s the heart and soul of this defense, and not having him has left a huge hole.
Ballard spent money on former Chiefs pass rusher Justin Houston, giving the former four-time Pro Bowl star with 78.5 career sacks a whopping $24.4 million over two years including $18.5 million in guarantees. He has one sack and three hurries in four games. When he signed that deal, he assured he still had a lot left in the tank. The Colts need to see that now in his return to Arrowhead Stadium.
The same could be suggested for other Colts defenders such as defensive tackle Margus Hunt, who has just three tackles after signing a two-year, $9-million contract in the offseason. His career year in 2018 that included five sacks and 13 tackles for loss hasn’t transferred so far. He doesn’t have a sack or tackle for loss. And the Colts have been alternating players in for him, presumably because he’s not producing.
Even if the Colts defense somehow finds a way to slow down Mahomes and friends, it still might not be enough. Mahomes and Chiefs are that good.
Here’s hoping the visitors can put up a fight and make a game of it. I’m not expecting an upset. Who is, seriously? But if they can somehow keep this respectable, if not worthy of watching into the late-night hour, not all will seem lost. They then enter a much-needed bye week, which will allow some injuries to heal before a home division showdown with the Houston Texans.
Based on what we’ve seen from these Colts so far in a rather inconsistent start, just being modestly competitive against one of the league’s best is about as realistic an expectation as fans should have for this game.
