Late-Season Weaknesses Clarify Colts’ Obvious Needs for 2021 and Beyond
INDIANAPOLIS — The grind of a grueling, 17-week NFL regular season inevitably reiterates which positions must be addressed in the offseason.
Regardless of whether the Indianapolis Colts (10-5) make the AFC playoffs after Sunday’s games — they need to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) and get help from one of four other contenders losing — the Wednesday news that offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo needs season-ending ankle surgery was the latest reminder of what general manager Chris Ballard must work on when making roster decisions for the future.
The Colts lacked depth at offensive tackle, which was clarified when the 10th-year pro Castonzo couldn’t play at Cleveland and at Pittsburgh, both losses. It also didn’t help that offensive right tackle Braden Smith missed Sunday’s Steelers loss due to contact tracing rules for COVID-19. Smith returned to the active roster on Wednesday.
Before delving into analysis on need positions, let’s be clear about one thing. There were only so many holes Ballard could fill the past offseason. The Colts, if they win Sunday, will have improved four wins to 11-5. That usually makes the playoffs. Just two 11-5 teams since 1978 have missed out.
So the Colts were better. Some moves worked. And yet it’s easy to say Ballard should have had better backup offensive tackles, perhaps drafting one in April. He hoped that reserves Le’Raven Clark, Chaz Green, and others could get them by on a Colts offensive line that was the NFL’s only unit without a missed start in 2019. That wasn’t the case. Clark wasn’t good, Green was worse, and that weakness got exploited in key losses.
The Colts will be among the top teams in salary cap space with about $65 million, so Ballard will hopefully add some quality depth at offensive tackle, or use a higher draft pick on one, especially if Castonzo is unable to return for the final year of his two-year contract that he signed before this season.
Offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo signed a two-year, $33-million deal in March.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
There are other priorities, of course.
For starters, should the Colts bring back quarterback Philip Rivers for an 18th season, the price presumably the same at $25 million? While Rivers will always have his critics because he’s an old-school gunslinger lacking in mobility, he was worth it this season because he’s smart, makes quick reads, and gets rid of the ball quickly. The offense had hiccups, but Rivers made it work.
A majority of the NFL’s teams didn’t get to 11-5. And unless Ballard has a plan for quarterback that involves bringing someone else in, or turning to fourth-round pick Jacob Eason after one year of learning, he and head coach Frank Reich know what they have in Rivers.
The problem on offense, aside from O-line depth, is the need for more weapons. Rookie wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has potential. Veteran Zach Pascal fulfills a steady role as a reliable pass-catcher and excellent blocker, so here's hoping he is re-signed.
A subject for disagreement, at least in the media, is wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. The four-time Pro Bowl player hasn’t performed at that level for three consecutive seasons, so re-signing to help with continuity makes sense, but not if he’s expecting a big contract for several years.
Two of Hilton’s best games came against the Houston Texans, who he always dominates. Excelling against bad defenses is one thing. Disappearing against good defenses is something else. Too many times, Hilton was unable to come up with the key plays needed from a No. 1 wide receiver. It shouldn’t be a surprise if Ballard uses yet another high draft pick to select a wide receiver, although he just took Pittman in the second round.
Ballard wisely drafted running back Jonathan Taylor in the second round also, and many questioned that decision. I didn’t. In fact, my final mock called for the Colts to draft a running back in the second round. Taylor has been a lifesaver after Marlon Mack was lost for the season in the opener. Taylor has played his best ball down the stretch and solidified himself as a workhorse for the future. He needs 84 yards rushing to hit 1,000 and has 10 TDs, nine of them rushing. He’s been better than expected at catching passes, too. And after all the doubt about his ball security, he’s had only one lost fumble.
The other two obvious concerns are on defense, which improved because Ballard was willing to step out of his draft pick-stockpiling M.O. and part with a first-round draft choice to acquire three-technique defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. No. 99 was as solid as anticipated, but he can’t cover wide receivers and there’s only so much he can do inside when the edge rushers are so-so.
Fact is, a Colts defense that was ranked too high at No. 1 early in the season has faded, especially down the stretch. The Colts escaped twice against the Texans because of fumbles, one because of a bad snap, with Houston in position to score and potentially take the lead late. The defense couldn't protect a 24-7 lead in the third quarter at Pittsburgh.
That brings us to the inconsistent pass rush, which has had some great games, and then been non-existent in others. The only sack of Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday came on a safety blitz by Khari Willis. Defensive tackle Grover Stewart, recently given a multi-year extension, had the only other quarterback hit.
Buckner, Justin Houston, and Denico Autry share the team lead with 7.5 sacks. Difference is, Buckner has 24 quarterback hits. Houston and Autry, who are both looking to get new contracts, have combined for 20 quarterback hits.
The Colts can be optimistic that second-year edge rusher Kemoko Turay will emerge with a breakthrough 2021 after he returned to the lineup late this season and showed tremendous speed. But even if Turay blossoms, he’s not enough. Another quality pass-rusher is needed.
Ballard can’t be blamed for looking elsewhere as opposed to paying big bucks to Houston and Autry, who are solid players but weren’t consistent. Houston had a four-game stretch with only one assisted tackle. Three of his 7.5 sacks came against the Texans, who have been awful in protecting Deshaun Watson.
The Colts got value from signing cornerback Xavier Rhodes for $3 million. Teams haven’t wanted to test him as the season progressed. He’s worth bringing back, presumably for an expensive, multi-year deal because good cover guys are hard to find.
But the Colts have be looking at the other side because second-year cornerback Rock Ya-Sin still hasn’t developed into the player expected. He’s been good at times, but has often struggled, too. Nobody needs to give up on him just yet, but there should be another cornerback who can push Ya-Sin for that starting job. This next year should be considered make-or-break for him. There’s only so much time for players to develop.
Free agency and the draft should be telling. Take your pick on what Ballard’s priorities should be. My preference would be edge rusher, wide receiver, offensive tackle, cornerback. If Castonzo doesn’t return, offensive tackle gets pushed to the top spot.
