Will Playoffs Reiterate What Colts Should Decide on Re-Signing QB Philip Rivers?

He earned $25 million to join the Indianapolis Colts for his 17th NFL season and quarterback Philip Rivers did enough for the team to qualify for the AFC playoffs. Should the Colts spend again to bring him back for 2021?

INDIANAPOLIS — When the Indianapolis Colts visit the Buffalo Bills in Saturday’s first-round AFC playoff game, the visitors will be counting on 17th-year quarterback Philip Rivers to make enough plays as a savvy leader.

On the other side is Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has enjoyed a breakthrough season with numbers worthy of NFL MVP consideration. Allen embodies what every NFL team should want in a quarterback — he’s young and has a strong arm, mobility, confidence, and pocket presence. Allen has completed 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. He’s also run for 421 yards and eight scores.

Will the Bills (13-3) remind the Colts (11-5) what is needed to play quarterback in today’s NFL? Or will the wily veteran Rivers prove that anything is still possible with quick-thinking smarts?

The Colts paid Rivers $25 million to get them to the playoffs, which hadn’t been accomplished in four of the previous five years. Based on that fact alone, Rivers was worth the money.

But in the past two games, when the Colts needed Rivers to step up in the second half of important games, he didn’t. The Colts blew a 24-7, third-quarter lead in a 28-24 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 16. On Sunday, the Colts were clinging to a 20-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter, when rookie running back Jonathan Taylor put away the pesky Jacksonville Jaguars with a 45-yard touchdown run in a 28-14 home win that clinched a playoff spot.

Trying to ascertain Rivers' value has been nothing short of maddening at times. The 39-year-old quarterback threw second-half interceptions on deep throws in the second half of each of the past two games.

His play demands constant evaluation because the Colts have to decide if they want to pay him another $25 million to return in 2021. If he struggles at Bills Stadium, will it be time to find that quarterback for the future?

Philip Rivers gestures during a Week 16 loss at Pittsburgh.

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Rivers has completed 67.96% of his passes, his second-highest completion percentage in seven seasons, for 4,169 yards and 24 TDs with 11 interceptions. He cut down on the picks, from 20 in his last year with the Chargers. Part of that can be credited to an offensive line that allowed him to be sacked just 19 times, the second-fewest total in his career.

The Colts won six of eight games to make the playoffs because Rivers as well as an improved defense did enough to earn the postseason berth. But they didn’t have the tiebreaker advantage in losing the AFC South Division to the Tennessee Titans (11-5) because the Colts lost the season opener to the Jaguars, who didn’t win again in finishing 1-15.

Tiebreakers also weren’t favorable because the Colts lost AFC games to Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, and split a pair of lopsided games against the Titans. All three made the playoffs, too.

Thanks to the emergence of Taylor, who rushed for a single-game, franchise-record 253 yards against the Jaguars, Rivers has had a strong run game to rely upon. That should have made his job easier. But that’s why the second-half struggles in several games are disconcerting and can’t be easily dismissed when making an offseason decision on a new contract.

What seems clear is that every other facet of the Colts offense needs to be in order for Rivers to thrive. That hasn’t been the case. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton didn’t return to Pro Bowl form this year, which means the Colts didn’t really have a No. 1 wide receiver. The offensive line was solid for the most part, but struggled when offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo was injured.

And while Taylor finished the regular season with 1,169 yards rushing and 11 TDs, as well as 299 yards receiving and another score, he didn’t become the workhorse until the final six games, when he averaged 123.5 yards. Too many times, the Colts stopped giving him the ball. Colts coaches deserved to be second-guessed when the second-round selection was benched after his only lost fumble of the season and endured a three-game stretch with just 24 carries for 61 yards in November.

The Colts have struggled on third down (22nd, 39.59%) as well as in the red zone (tied 17th, 58.33%). For the most part, that's about Rivers making plays when needed most, to move the chains and finish scoring drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.

Head coach Frank Reich talks with quarterback Philip Rivers.

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Colts head coach Frank Reich was sold on Rivers as an elite quarterback and general manager Chris Ballard signed off on it. Rivers was an upgrade on 2019 starter Jacoby Brissett, who stepped in when Andrew Luck retired and the Colts finished 7-9 a year ago.

But don’t be surprised if the playoff game at Bill Stadium reminds that the Colts-Rivers marriage is a short-term fix at the most important position. Rivers has had a great eight-time Pro Bowl career with statistics that will be weighed for Pro Football Hall of Fame consideration. But he’s never made it to the Super Bowl and lost in his only AFC Championship Game appearance. He’s 5-6 in the playoffs and this will be the seventh year he’s made the playoffs in 15 seasons as a starting quarterback.

Perhaps the Colts will be convinced that Ballard can put more key pieces around Rivers to take another shot in 2021. That’s certainly possible.

Perhaps Rivers will shine against the Bills to prove himself worthy of one more year with the Colts.

But there’s no denying the clock is ticking on the Colts finding a long-term solution. Just making the playoffs can’t be good enough.

If the Colts are one-and-done on Saturday, perhaps they should be one-and-done with Rivers as well.