Which QBs Should Colts Pursue Next?
INDIANAPOLIS — Well, at least for a few days, Matthew Stafford joining the Indianapolis Colts was a nice thought.
Problem is, the Detroit Lions all-time leading passer was going to get plenty of interest, and Colts general manager Chris Ballard wasn’t going to mortgage future draft picks for the 32-year-old quarterback. So they came up short in a bidding war — the L.A. Rams reportedly have given the Lions two first-round draft picks, a third-round choice, and quarterback Jared Goff in exchange for Stafford. The Lions agree to eat Goff’s gaudy contract, which was key.
So what are the Colts’ next options, either by trade or in free agency?
Before overly optimistic thoughts enter the mind, let’s be realistic. The Houston Texans have just hired a new general manager and head coach, and their first move won’t be to deal quarterback Deshaun Watson. Granted, Watson is upset, and rightfully so, given the past direction of his team. But unless he’s willing to hold out to try to force the issue — and part with a lot of money that he’s already been paid — the Texans would be wise to do everything they can to convince the NFL’s leading passer in 2020 to return. All that said, if Watson wins out, the Texans won’t trade him within the AFC South Division to a rival. Giving in to a franchise player is one thing. Agreeing to send him to a team that plays you twice each year would be beyond crazy.
And anyone thinking about Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is hoping for a minor miracle. The Cowboys are expected to break the bank to keep him. And they could franchise tag him again if the talks aren’t productive.
So back to what sounds realistic, the Stafford deal reminds that trades can be tricky. Just suggesting the Colts should inquire about New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold doesn’t mean the deal gets done. The Jets have the No. 2 overall pick in April’s NFL draft, so they are in position to take any quarterback they want other than Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, the consensus first pick expected to go to Jacksonville.
Will the N.Y. Jets be looking to trade Sam Darnold?
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If the Jets are willing to part with Darnold, what kind of draft pick would it take? The Colts reportedly weren’t willing to part with a first-round selection for Stafford, so don’t expect Ballard to cough up more for Darnold, who might seem like an underwhelming option but he’s been languishing on a lousy team without enough weapons for three years.
The third overall pick in 2018 is just 23 with a lot to learn, most notably reducing his interceptions. But Colts head coach Frank Reich has been effective with three different quarterbacks in as many seasons, so teaching Darnold how to cut down on risky throws and make smarter decisions shouldn’t be too much to expect. Darnold has 45 TDs and 39 interceptions so far.
If the Jets want too much for Darnold or decide to stick with him, who’s next in a possible trade? How about the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan? Yeah, he’s 36, but Ryan is scheduled to be a $40.9-million hit to the salary cap in 2021. There’s an opt-out option after next season, and he has two more years through 2023 on his contract. His base salary for the next three years is just under $60 million. Then there are bonuses, options, and restructuring amounts to sort out.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan would cost a lot to keep in 2021.
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Bottom line, perhaps the Falcons want to move on from that contract and the Colts could afford to make a deal. Again, how much would Ballard be willing to give up for the 2016 NFL MVP who has reached one Super Bowl in 13 seasons and has 55,767 passing yards with 347 TDs and 158 interceptions?
The Falcons, who also have hired a new GM and head coach, have the fourth overall pick in the draft. So they could decide to choose a young franchise quarterback to start the rebuild.
Another possibility that might seem more far-fetched is Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz. The Eagles just hired Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni as head coach. Sirianni has to decide if Wentz is part of the solution or part of the problem. The Colts connection is stronger than that — Reich was the Eagles offensive coordinator when they won Super Bowl LII and knows Wentz well.
Carson Wentz thrived with Frank Reich as offensive coordinator.
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If Sirianni decides Wentz is worth keeping, then there’s nothing to talk about. But if the Eagles want to move on from the second overall pick in 2016, it stands to reason Sirianni would ask Reich if the Colts are interested. Wentz is 28 and in the prime of his career. Yes, he struggled last year, but again, he wasn’t surrounded by enough weapons. Sound familiar?
The Eagles turned to rookie Jalen Hurts toward the end of 2020. If he’s not the future, Philly has the No. 6 overall pick. They could select a young passer or trade up to get one.
Back to the Colts and wondering how much interest they might have in Darnold, Ryan, or Wentz as the right fit. For the record, they were listed in alphabetical order, not by order of preference. Truth be told, Wentz makes more sense than the other two based on his relationship with Reich. Ryan is the best talent. Darnold is the youngest, which suggests there’s more room to improve, but is his ceiling limited?
As the Stafford situation showed, there’s no sense getting too excited about one player or another. We just have to see how it plays out.
But the list of quarterbacks who will become free agents in March doesn’t measure up to the three just mentioned. If any of them end up with the Colts, it’s likely another short-term fix to a situation that demands a long-term answer.
That list includes the Colts’ Jacoby Brissett, who has twice been the starter and replaced by better players, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers. Brissett was paid $21.4 million to be a backup insurance policy in 2020. Now he will see what he’s worth on the open market. As much as some Colts fans like him, Brissett’s flaws have become obvious the more he’s played. He lacks vision and is indecisive in throwing the ball down the field. If you’re Brissett, he has to be wary about returning because losing the job again would subject him to the same disappointment he’s already experienced.
About that list of free agents, the list includes Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Mitchell Trubisky.
Yeah, that’s not exactly inspiring.
