Cowboys 2020 Free-Agent Power Rankings: Does McCarthy - With Cobb and More - Change Priorities?
The Dallas Cowboys have a new boss in former Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy. How does his hire influence these 2020 Cowboys Free Agency Power Rankings? These the Top 10 players the Cowboys have on their roster that are facing free agency. But how big are these priorities as we enter 2020?
1. QB Dak Prescott (final year of rookie contract, paid $2.03 million in 2019).
Prescott has been No. 1 on this list throughout the season, and while his play hasn’t been as consistent in the second half of this season, he threw for more than 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2019, completing 65 percent of his passes and finished with a quarterback rating of nearly 100.
There is no question he’ll be back for the Cowboys in 2020, whether it’s on a long-term deal or on a franchise tag. The Cowboys (publicly) interviewed two former NFL head coaches — McCarthy and Marvin Lewis. The fact that the Cowboys hired an offensive-minded head coach with a Super Bowl ring, one that mentored both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, tells you everything you need to know about what Cowboys management is hoping to get out of a partnership between McCarthy and Prescott.
They expect McCarthy to take Prescott to another level. And you should expect the Cowboys to spend through the nose to make it happen.
2. WR Amari Cooper (final year of rookie contract, paid $13.9 million in 2019).
Ideally, the Cowboys don’t want to face a decision between franchising Prescott or Cooper. But maybe they don’t. The NFL faces a “final league year” scenario in the 2020 collective bargaining agreement. If there is no new CBA by March of 2020 then the Cowboys would have the ability to use a franchise tag on one player and a transition tag on another. In that scenario, the Cowboys have the leverage to keep both players using their tags, if they can’t reach a long-term agreement. That will be interesting to track as free agency approaches.
Statistically this will be Cooper’s best season since his 83-reception campaign in 2016, and his touchdown production in 2019 is the best of his entire career. He’s been banged up, but he has played through most of it, but it has impacted his production. He’s a tough receiver with a quality route tree who helps make this entire offense better. Plus, Cooper wants to stay in Dallas. His mind hasn’t changed while enduring this season.
The hiring of McCarthy shouldn’t change the calculus, either. McCarthy’s offense has produced some highly productive receivers, including one that is hiding on the Cowboys’ roster at the moment.
I expect to see Cooper in a Cowboys uniform in 2020.
3. DE Robert Quinn (last year of contract, paid $8 million in 2019).
Trading for Quinn proved to be a godsend for the Cowboys in 2019. He hit double-digit sacks and ended up leading the Cowboys in that category this season. This happened despite missing the first two games of the season due to suspension and another due to injury. He proved to be a great complement to DeMarcus Lawrence and actually out-produced the Cowboys’ highest-paid pass rusher.
That makes Quinn a high priority going into 2020, even with the coaching change (the Cowboys will hire Mike Nolan to be their defensive coordinator).
There are a couple of considerations, though.
First, pass-rushers that produce like Quinn get plenty of attention in free agency, and if the Cowboys have to use tags on either Prescott or Cooper, or both, they can’t use them on Quinn (and using a tag on Quinn would, frankly, overpay him).
Second, Quinn’s age (he’s closing in on 30) means he’ll be looking for one more long-term deal with some financial security. Can the Cowboys offer that? The salary cap numbers for 2020 say yes. But are there teams that can outbid Quinn for his services? Also, yes. The production makes Quinn a high priority. But there will be plenty of competition.
4. DT Antwaun Woods (last year of contract, paid $570,000 in 2019).
Woods played in 10 games this year, but his value to the Cowboys is clear. He is an exclusive-rights free agent, which means all the Cowboys have to do is make an offer and they can keep Woods. So they can manage cost with a player that has position flex at both defensive tackle positions. That’s why he’s high here, despite the fact that he has little freedom to move. It shouldn’t even be a debate inside The Star.
5. CB Byron Jones (final year of rookie contract, paid $6.2 million in 2019).
This is where we start to get into the value of the player versus the value of the potential contract. Jones took significant strides last season as a corner in his first year under aide Kris Richard. But in 2019 it feels like the whole secondary (and the whole defense, frankly), took a step back. But how much of a step back did Jones taken individually?
Jones didn’t have an interception. In my last rankings I wrote that the Cowboys’ depth at secondary could give the Cowboys the freedom to let Jones test the market. I’m not so sure about that now. To me Jones is the Cowboys’ No. 1 corner. But there will be factors beyond his control that will determine whether he remains in Dallas in 2020. I think he’ll get an offer, but I think he’ll also be allowed to test the market. Because quality corners are so hard to get, I could see Jones not returning if he hits the market.
As for the coaching changes, Nolan is known for coaxing high turnover numbers out of the defenses he works with. Could he coax more game-changing plays out of Jones? That’s a consideration, too.
6. DT Maliek Collins (last year of rookie contract, paid $2.02 million in 2019).
Collins is a quality player. He always has been. But I also think we’ve seen his ceiling as a player, though I would love to see what a coordinator like Nolan and his staff could get out of him. He’s can stop the run and get to the quarterback, but he’s probably never going to produce at a “star” level. You need steady, dependable players like Collins, however. You just can’t pay them a ton.
That’s the trick for the Cowboys in 2020. I think they need Collins back, but he’s probably not quite the priority of a player like Jones because there is enough depth behind Collins to compensate if he leaves. What is a solid defensive tackle worth in the NFL? I think we’re about to find out. Collins is much like Jones in that I think the Cowboys will make an offer, but Collins will test the market. And, if he does, he may not return.
7. WR Randall Cobb (last year of contract, paid $5 million in 2019).
I had Cobb at No. 10 when I started this article last week. The hiring of McCarthy will have the biggest impact on Cobb’s free agency season in Dallas.
McCarthy coached Cobb for several years in Green Bay and that offense, along with McCarthy’s coaching staff, got plenty of mileage out of the vet. At the end of 2019 Cobb was the Cowboys’ third-most productive receiver (55 catches, 828 yards, 3 touchdowns). Not bad for a guy the Cowboys just picked up. He will be 30 next season. Given his career production he would make a great No. 3 receiver in this offense. McCarthy’s arrival, to me, changes the priority, especially when you hear Cobb tell it.
That’s respect and understanding of what McCarthy did for his career. McCarthy’s hiring means Cobb is much more likely to stay than go. But it all comes down to money. But with McCarthy in town, Cobb might take the same amount he got last year — $5 million — to work with his own boss. But they shouldn’t overpay to keep him. The players ahead of him, to me, have a higher priority.
8. LB Sean Lee (last year of contract, paid $3.5 million in 2019).
Lee has had a fine season, and the injury issues with Leighton Vander Esch only underscore what Lee can be for this defense as an elder statesman kind of player who can still produce. Plus, the Cowboys have managed his snap count in a way that has allowed Lee to be a productive player this late in the season. He’s 33, so the first thing we have to find out is whether Lee wants to come back (I think he does, and he said this week that he would probably wait until March to make that decision).
Then, it’s up to the Cowboys to produce a contract that pays Lee well enough to bring him back. I think it’s a deal in the $2-3 million range. I don’t think Lee wants to play anywhere else, honestly. The good news is here is there is enough cap room and enough respect on both sides to make a deal happen, even if it lingers into April or May.
9. SS Jeff Heath (last year of contract, paid $2.5 million in 2019).
I think just about every Cowboys fan has a love-hate relationship with Heath at this point. When he’s playing well, you love him. When he’s making mistakes, you hate him.
Just about every NFL player has that sort of dynamic, but with Heath it seems to be amplified by the fact that the Cowboys have made plays for Earl Thomas and Jamal Adams the last two years.
They clearly see safety as a position of need and I think going into 2020 they see it as a position where they could spend some money in free agency (and Adams could be out there). Heath has eight career interceptions and enough value to other teams where he could get a better deal than he could in Dallas, and I don’t think the Cowboys would be opposed to that at this point. He’s not a player the Cowboys will overpay to keep. The hiring of Nolan as defensive coordinator could help Heath, who in the past few seasons has been one of the defense’s few consistent turnover producers.
10. TE Blake Jarwin (last year of rookie contract, paid $645,000 million in 2019).
Jarwin isn’t going to be Jason Witten, but he’s now produced two straight 30-catch seasons, the second of which came with Witten on the roster. As a restricted free agent, all the Cowboys have to do is make an offer and they would likely keep the third-year pro. Bank on it happening.
Dropped out
None
Why not …
TE Jason Witten: Witten will make a decision quickly about his future. It’s up to him at this point.
WR Tavon Austin: My mind hasn’t changed here. Tony Pollard makes Austin expendable.
LS L.P. Ladouceur: The vet would make more than $1 million if he comes back in 2020. The Cowboys will re-sign him.
T Cameron Fleming: Fleming did nice work in place of Tyron Smith. But other teams will come calling, some with an opportunity to start.
DE Michael Bennett: This was a rental from the start. Bennett won’t be back in 2020.
LB Malcolm Smith: Given Vander Esch’s surgery, keeping the former Super Bowl MVP as depth would be nice, especially if the price is right.
Other expected Cowboys free agents in 2020 (unrestricted free agent unless otherwise noted): DT Christian Covington, ILB Joe Thomas, DT Kerry Hyder, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, OLB Justin March, FS Darian Thompson, S C.J. Goodwin, S Kavon Frazier (injured reserve), DT Daniel Ross (Restricted free agent, on injured reserve), K Kai Forbath, LB Ray-Ray Armstrong, CB Anthony Brown, QB Cooper Rush (RFA), G Adam Redmond (RFA, on injured reserve).
