Cowboys 'Overwhelming' Super Bowl Favorites - Twice As Likely as Eagles, Claims ESPN
FRISCO - We have in this space poked a great deal of fun at the frauds and charlatans who attempt to convince Cowboys Nation that there exist some magical "percentages'' that can predict everything from the decisions made by the mind and soul to which way a pointy ball will bounce.
Have fun with 'em, we say. But don't take them all so seriously as to find yourself bamboozled and hookwinked by the actual outcome.
"The mind and soul''? Apply is to "The OBJ World Tour'' and you will understand. Countless pals of Odell Beckham Jr. and countless media "experts'' and "insiders'' have for weeks boldly announced where the free agent receiver will sign ...
And now we know - because not only has Beckham not decided what to do, but suitors like the Dallas Cowboys haven't decided, either - you know it was all made up.
And to "the pointy ball? The Cowboys trail the Philadelphia Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East, and have lost a game to them head-to-head. Dallas is good at 9-3; Philly is better at 11-1.
And yet, according to ESPN, the Cowboys are overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Per ESPN's projections, the Cowboys have a 29.3-percent chance to win the Super Bowl, by far the highest in the NFL.
The three teams directly behind the Cowboys?
The Kansas City Chiefs at 22.9 percent.
The Buffalo Bills at 23.7 percent.
And then the 11-1, with the fourth-best chance at winning the Super Bowl at 12.5 percent.
Math isn't our specialty. But none of that adds up.
It means the ESPN "computer'' in essence thinks Dallas has more than twice the chance of winning the Super Bowl than Philly has ... even though, among other factors, the Eagles are likely to be playing all their playoff games at home.
Bottom line: The info that gets spit out of that computer is only as valid as the info that was shoved into it. And while Dallas (a 17-point favorite this weekend against lowly Houston) might ultimately be better than the Eagles, to suggest that there is "mathematical'' evidence that Dallas in somewhere between two and three times more likely than the Eagles to win it all is intellectually dishonest.
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