Applying Analytics to the Tua Timeline Debate

To get a better sense of when we can expect Tua Tagovailoa to become the starting quarterback of the Miami Dolphins, we checked the recent history of top 10 picks at the position

You can call it the great Tua debate.

This one actually doesn't have to do with his jersey number — yes, that's a thing — but rather deals with exactly when he'll take over as the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins after they made him the fifth overall selection in the 2020 NFL draft.

Of course, everything will be predicated on him being physically ready to compete after he underwent hip surgery last November after a nasty injury in a game against Mississippi State.

Oddsmakers seem to think Tagovailoa will not start right away, though the flip side is his over/under of 3,200 passing yards in 2020 suggests an expectation that he'll get in the lineup sooner rather than later.

That's the gambling aspect of it.

What about analytics? More specifically, what does recent history tell us?

Let's break it down, analyzing all the drafts of the 2010s.

During that time, a total of 20 quarterbacks became top 10 picks and exactly half of them became opening-day starters as rookies.

That list is comprised of Sam Bradford (Rams, 2010), Cam Newton (Panthers, 2011), Andrew Luck (Colts, 2012), Robert Griffith III (Redskins, 2012), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins, 2012), Jameis Winston (Bucs, 2015), Marcus Mariota (Titans, 2015), Carson Wentz (Eagles, 2016), Sam Darnold (Jets, 2018) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 2019).

Six quarterbacks got their first start in the first quarter of the season: Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars, Week 3, 2011), Blake Bortles (Jaguars, Week 4, 2014), Baker Mayfield (Browns, Week 4, 2018), Josh Allen (Bills, Week 2, 2018), Josh Rosen (Cardinals, Week 4, 2018) and Daniel Jones (Giants, Week 3, 2019).

Of the other four quarterbacks:

Mitch Trubisky made his first start in Week 5 after being the second overall pick in 2017; Jared Goff got his first start in Week 10 after being the first overall pick in 2016; Patrick Mahomes had to wait until the season finale of his rookie season after being the 10th pick in 2017; and Jake Locker didn't start for the Tennessee Titans until the season opener of his second year after being the eighth pick in 2011.

What sticks out from the data is the recent trend to have top 10 quarterbacks wait before they start.

Of the past nine quarterbacks taken in the top 10 of a draft, only Murray and Darnold started immediately.

It's also interesting to note that the 12 playoff teams of last season featured only three starting quarterbacks who became starters right away in their NFL career: Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, Wentz and Tannehill.

In terms of trying to correlate long-term success with starting or not starting right away, let's look at the Associated Press NFL MVPs since 2000.

Since the start of the millennium, 10 quarterbacks have been named MVP. Only three of them were immediate starters in the NFL: Peyton Manning (1998), Matt Ryan (2008) and Newton.

The other seven: Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon, Steve McNair, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

Ultimately, the Dolphins are going to do what they feel is best when it comes to when to put Tagovailoa in the lineup. It's just good to have historical background for a little perspective.