The Samuel Saga and the Dolphins Angles
When the Miami Dolphins pulled off their blockbuster trade for Tyreek Hill exactly four weeks ago, they essentially gave new head coach Mike McDaniel his new Deebo Samuel.
And considering the price the Dolphins paid for Hill, it's pretty much a given that the Dolphins won't be involved in any trade talks with the San Francisco 49ers to reunite McDaniel with Samuel in light of ESPN's Jeff Darlington reporting — from a direct conversation with the player — that Samuel wants to be traded.
But that certainly doesn't mean the Dolphins wouldn't be affected if indeed Samuel ended up being moved.
And the potential ramifications are both positive and negative.
The 49ers' 2023 First-Round Pick Could Improve
The most direct impact of a Samuel trade for the Dolphins could be how it impacts the 49ers' won-loss record in 2022 because, remember, Miami owns San Francisco's first-round pick in 2023 as the result of the draft-related trade the teams pulled off last year.
Barring the 49ers getting a playmaker of similar caliber, their offense likely would be hurt by the departure of Samuel, whose 1,745 all-purpose yards in 2021 ranked third in the entire NFL behind only the totals put up by Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp.
Also keep in mind the dilemma the 49ers face at quarterback because of that 2021 trade with the Dolphins, the one where they gave up two future No. 1 picks to move up from 12th to third overall to select quarterback Trey Lance.
Logic suggests that after being a backup last year, Lance will need to be in the starting lineup in 2022 to more or less justify the trade and the bottom line is we just don't know yet how successful he will be early in his career. Not having Samuel certainly won't help.
So then maybe the 49ers take a step back after reaching the NFC Championship Game last season and stumble to a losing season, which obviously would help the Dolphins' draft position.
Before they traded the pick to Kansas City in the Hill trade, the Dolphins' first-round pick obtained from the 49ers would have been the 29th this year. It should be better next year regardless, but it's got the potential to be much better if the 49ers offense doesn't have Samuel.
The Dolphins Might Have to Face Samuel on a Regular Basis
Of course, it didn't take long after Darlington's report surfaced for the speculation to begin as to which team might want to trade for him.
National radio talk show host Colin Cowherd suggested the one team that makes the most sense is the New England Patriots and he went as far as to suggest that the 49ers owe the Patriots a favor after they agreed to trade them Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 for what sure seemed like a very low price (a second-round pick) for a future starting quarterback.
New England also has a glaring need for a No. 1 wide receiver — yes, even after trading with the Dolphins for DeVante Parker — to the point where there's been debate as to whether the Pats will use the 21st overall pick in the 2022 draft on that position.
Another absolutely logical destination would be New York, the Jets specifically.
Think about it.
There's a 49ers connection there with Jets head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur both being former San Francisco assistants, and the Jets also have a screaming need for a No. 1 wide receiver, which is why they made a push to acquire Hill before the Chiefs sent him to Miami.
Oh, and the Jets have a lot of draft capital with which to work, including two first-round picks in 2022.
Samuel would represent a great consolation prize for the Jets.
Based on odds from BetOnline, the Jets are the second-most likely destination for Samuel if he gets traded at 5/1 behind only Indianapolis at 9/2. New England is tied for 11th at 16/1.
If Samuel does get traded, and he gets traded to New England or to the Jets, then Mike McDaniel will be seeing his former player again on a regular basis. Only this time he'd have to figure out a way to try to contain him.
That would be the negative side of a potential Samuel trade.
Samuel and the What-If Scenario
Because they gave up five draft picks to land Hill and because they already have a lot of money and draft capital invested at wide receiver, it's again next to impossible to envision the Dolphins making a move for Samuel if the 49ers decide to grant him his wish.
But one can't help but wonder how things would have played out had Samuel made his request a month — or before the Dolphins traded for Hill, to be precise.
McDaniel's familiarity with Samuel no doubt would have made acquiring him appealing and the price tag — both in terms of trade compensation and new contract — likely would have been more palatable.
But Samuel is coming off his first huge season in the NFL, while Hill has been selected to the Pro Bowl six times in six years as a pro. And the age difference (Hill is 28, Samuel is 26) isn't big enough to make up for that.
Another issue that has surfaced involving Samuel is his reported desire to be used as a pure wide receiver from now on, as opposed to a hybrid player. While that no doubt will help his NFL longevity, it also takes away from what makes him special.
Regardless, while we'll never know, one would think Hill still would have been the choice even had Samuel been available back then.
Based again on BetOnline, we're not alone in our view here because 16 teams were listed with odds of becoming Samuel's next team — and the Dolphins were not one of them.
