Why the Dolphins Will Defeat the Jets in Week 12, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen
The Miami Dolphins will take to bounce back after their first loss in six games, but more importantly keep pace in the AFC playoff race, when they face the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
The Dolphins (6-4) are coming off a 20-13 loss against the Denver Broncos, while the Jets lost a 34-28 decision against the Los Angeles Chargers to fall to 0-10 on the season.
Here are different ways this game could play out:
The Dolphins will win because ...
-- The Dolphins are a better team than they showed in the game at Denver.
-- The Jets are, well, the Jets.
-- The Dolphins once again will get the better of quarterback Sam Darnold, who will come in with four touchdown passes, eight interceptions and 11 sacks absorbed in four career games against Miami.
-- The Dolphins will completely shut down Frank Gore and the Jets running game, making their offense one-dimensional and allowing them to tee off on Darnold.
-- Much-improved slot corner Nik Needham will contain Jets receiver Jamison Crowder, who had seven catches in the October game at Hard Rock Stadium.
-- The Dolphins defensive line will take advantage of a Jets offensive line that will be missing at least one and maybe two starters.
-- DeVante Parker will take advantage of a very young Jets secondary and have his biggest outing of the season, regardless of who plays quarterback for the Dolphins.
-- The much more disciplined Dolphins will watch the Jets self-destruct like they've done so many times this season.
-- New running back DeAndre Washington will get additional snaps on offense and come up with a couple of big plays.
-- Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins will make an impact in his return to the lineup.
RELATED: Wilkins Returns With Same Energy but New Outlook
The Dolphins will lose because ...
-- The Jets are bound to win at some point, no?
-- Sam Darnold will bring life to the Jets offense and his mobility will help him deal with the Dolphins pass rush better than Joe Flacco did in the first matchup.
-- Rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims will continue to break out for the Jets passing game and come up with a big play or two.
-- The run defense problems we saw against Denver will surface again.
-- The Jets will come up with a scheme that's going to take advantage of a Dolphins offensive line coming off a rough game.
-- Without Salvon Ahmed and with Myles Gaskin not yet back from injured reserve, the Dolphins running game will get shut down, thus putting more pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make plays in the passing game.
-- The Jets will get a big play on special teams.
What actually will happen ...
My prediction record for Dolphins games (6-4) continues to mirror that of the team itself, though I'm currently on a three-game losing streak.
The Dolphins are almost a touchdown favorite in this matchup, yet there's just an uneasy feeling about this game from a Miami perspective.
Maybe it's that the Jets have come close in their past two games to getting that elusive first victory, losing by three against the Patriots and losing by six against the Chargers.
Maybe it's the fact that the Dolphins looked so ordinary against Denver after playing so well the previous month. Or maybe it's something as silly as that 10-game road losing streak against teams coming in with a losing record.
Again, all logic suggests the Dolphins should win this game without too many issues.
But there's a question mark at quarterback, there's a question mark at running back, there's a question mark at wide receiver and there's a question mark on the offensive line given the injury issues with Tua Tagovailoa, Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin, Jakeem Grant, and Solomon Kindley, respectively.
It's actually pretty easy to envision a scenario where the Dolphins offense has some problems against the Jets, even though that Jets defense simply isn't very good.
On the flip side, who knows what the return of Sam Darnold will mean in the grand scheme of things. It's not like the Dolphins haven't dominated him, but yet who's to say he doesn't come up with a season-best performance the way Drew Lock did last week.
Again, logic says the Dolphins should win, but there's something about this matchup that's worrisome.
Maybe the most solid prediction here is that it will be a low-scoring game.
Dolphins 17, Jets 16
