Handicapping the Dolphins Pro Bowl Possibilities
But the reality is that fan voting, which goes on until next Thursday, counts for only one-third of the selection process. There's a third that will come from coaches and then the players, who will be voting next Friday, Dec. 16.
The AFC and NFC Pro Bowl teams will be announced Wednesday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. on NFL Network. The Pro Bowl Games will take place Sunday, Feb. 5 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The Dolphins haven't gotten much Pro Bowl love in recent years, so much that Xavien Howard is the only player from the team selected in the previous four seasons — he was named to the Pro Bowl in 2018, 2020 and 2021.
That way more than likely will change this year, and not just because of the four players — Tagovailoa, wide receiver Tyreek Hill, fullback Alec Ingold and tackle Terron Armstead — leading their position in the fan voting.
With the Dolphins 8-4 and in the middle of the AFC playoff picture, the team understandably has several worthy candidates, but unfortunately not all of them will make it.
So let's provide a Dolphins Pro Bowl prognosis heading into the Week 14 games. Keep in mind that alternates will be selected as players initially selected bow out because of injury or their team's participation in the Super Bowl.
QB TUA TAGOVAILOA
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selections: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones (injury replacement*)
In some ways, Tua should be a slam dunk to make his first Pro Bowl considering he leads the NFL in passer rating and completion percentage, among several categories, and orchestrates perhaps the most explosive passing games in the NFL.
But the competition for Pro Bowl spots in the AFC is ridiculous, and the proof is in the latest NFL MVP odds released by BetOnline (www.betonline.ag), where Tua actually is fifth overall but three of those ahead of him are AFC quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
For those Dolphins fans who care about such things, Tua has a fabulous opportunity this Sunday night to sway players and coaches because of the stand-alone game against the L.A. Chargers.
Tua talked Wednesday about what a Pro Bowl invitation would mean.
"That would mean the world to be recognized for something like that in a league that’s really tough and the competition is really tough and the guys are really good," he said. " It’d mean the world. Coming into my third year and experiencing a lot of things that I’ve had to experience and go through, that’d be awesome.”
At this point, we'd give Tua a good chance of being selected to the original team, though it's not a done deal.
WR TYREEK HILL
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selections: Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Ja'Marr Chase, Hunter Renfrow*, Diontae Johnson*
This one should be an absolute slam dunk.
Hill leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and is the top non-quarterback when it comes to the BetOnline NFL MVP odds.
WR JAYLEN WADDLE
This one will be more tricky, even though Waddle has a legitimate case.
At this point, it seems almost a given that three of the four AFC wide receivers will be Hill, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams, leaving room for one more.
Waddle currently is fourth among AFC wide receivers in yards with 972 (behind Hill, Diggs and Adams), but tied for 10th in catches with 57 and tied for fifth in touchdowns with six, including two high-profile ones in the first two weeks of the season against New England and Baltimore.
The competition here figures to include Chase, Bengals teammate Tee Higgins, Christian Kirk of the Jaguars, and maybe Amari Cooper of the Browns.
Let's call this one 50-50.
FB ALEC INGOLD
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selection: Patrick Ricard
At a position where stats don't begin to tell the story of the efficiency of a player, reputation ends up playing a big role in the Pro Bowl voting, and this is where Ricard will have a big advantage here.
The Baltimore Ravens fullback has been selected to the Pro Bowl each of the past three years, and the guy they call "Pancake Pat" remains a good blocker.
So, as effective as Ingold has been for the Dolphins in his first season in Miami blocking and catching out of the backfield, his Pro Bowl chances probably stand somewhere south of 50-50.
T TERRON ARMSTEAD
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selections: Orlando Brown, Rashawn Slater, Dion Dawkins
As with fullback, reputation matters here, and Armstead is a three-time Pro Bowl selection and he's got that going for him — along with the fact he's played very well when he's been in the lineup.
With Slater missing practically the entire season, that opens the door for another candidate before even trying to analyze how well those guys have played.
With Armstead's reputation, performance and the fan voting, his Pro Bowl chances probably would have to be ranked as very good.
DT CHRISTIAN WILKINS
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selections: Chris Jones, Cameron Heyward, DeForest Buckner, Jeffery Simmons
The 2019 first-round pick just keeps getting better and better every year, and this might be his best season yet.
Like Tua at quarterback, Wilkins' Pro Bowl-level performance being recognized as such might get blocked by the major AFC talent at his position.
Jones leads all AFC defensive tackles in fan voting and he's third in the BetOline odds for NFL Defensive Player of the Year; Jeffery Simmons was a second-team All-Pro last year who somehow was left off the original Pro Bowl roster; and Heyward has been selected to the Pro Bowl each of the past five years.
Wilkins leads all NFL defensive tackles in tackles and tackles for loss, but he might get hurt by the fact he has only 1.5 sacks, compared to 10 for Jones, 6.5 for Simmons and 5 for Heyward.
So let's just say that Wilkins is having a Pro Bowl year, though it's probably not looking great that it'll officially be a Pro Bowl year.
CB XAVIEN HOWARD
2022 AFC Pro Bowl selections: Xavien Howard, J.C. Jackson, Kenny Moore, Denzel Ward
We included Howard on this list strictly because of his reputation and Pro Bowl resume, which will get him more recognition that his performance this season would warrant.
Howard was slowed earlier in the season by groin issues and he's starting to look again like the X of old, but his overall metrics really are not very good — his passer rating allowed when targeted this season is 105.4, according to Pro Football Reference.
It's not necessarily a great year for AFC cornerbacks, and that also might play in Howard's favor. At this point, Jets rookie Sauce Gardner would seem like a Pro Bowl lock, and other good candidates would include Stephon Gilmore, Marlon Humphrey and Jonathan Jones.
