Kelly: The Great Tua Debate Continues
There’s rarely ever a middle ground when it comes to opinions on Tua Tagovailoa.
Either he’s the best thing since sliced bread was created, or he's the NFL equivalent of Spam (no offense to Spam lovers out there ... it’s pretty decent when sliced thin and fried).
Oddly, two influential NFL analysts — ESPN’s Louis Riddick and NBC’s Sports’ Phil Simms — hold polar opposite positions on the Miami Dolphins quarterback.
Riddick has been a Tagovailoa supporter and advocate since his University of Alabama days, and has been unwavering with his opinion that Tagovailoa will ascend to elite status if he can stay healthy.
During a Thursday ESPN chat about Lamar Jackson and how far he can carry the Baltimore Ravens, Riddick claimed the AFC East is going through Miami, mainly because of Tagovailoa.
"You're going to deal with Tua because Miami is going to win the AFC East," Riddick said in a comment that came out of left field.
While I don’t agree with that opinion because Buffalo is the reigning AFC East champ for three straight seasons, I can understand where Riddick is coming from.
As for Simms’ opinions of Tagovailoa, I suspect he loves his position as the primary nemesis for Tuanon because trolling Tagovailoa’s rabid fan base is the only justification I can come up with for ranking New England quarterback Mac Jones one spot ahead of Tagovailoa in his annual QB ratings.
Simms has Tagovailoa ranked 21st, one spot behind his Alabama backup, and one spot ahead of Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and I want to dissect his reason for that ranking line by line.
Let’s begin. My interjections are in ALL CAPS.
SIMM'S LATEST OPINION ON TUA
Simms: “He runs that offense to a T. (TRUE.) He arguably has the quickest release in football (ALSO TRUE. I’M GLAD SOMEONE WITH HIS CREDENTIALS SAID IT.)
“Other than (Aaron) Rodgers, he’s the best RPO quarterback in football. (THAT’S DEBATABLE, BUT LET US ACCEPT THE PRAISE.)
“But his arm is below-average for an NFL starter. (IT’S AVERAGE. SIMMS IS MERELY STICKING TO HIS LONG-HELD NARRATIVE, WHICH PREDICTED TAGOVAILOA WOULD STRUGGLE IN THE NFL.)
"It doesn’t create much on its own. Nobody would watch Tua’s film and go, ‘It’s a laser.’ " (HE’S STATING THE OBVIOUS. BUT THEY WOULD MARVEL AT HIS ACCURACY, AS MANY HAVE.)
“When you break it down, there are so many yards and plays left on the field… (ISN’T THAT EVERY QUARTERBACK? MIAMI PRODUCED THE SIXTH-BEST OFFENSE IN THE NFL, DESPITE STRUGGLING FOR THE SEASON’S FINAL SIX GAMES.)
“The variety of releases is awesome [(MORE PRAISE, WHICH IS SURPRISING). He’s not a great runner, but he’s a good athlete (THIS IS TRUE)....He’s not durable. It’s been an issue his whole career. (FACTS.)
“He plays small in the pocket, he loses control of power throws down the field, and when teams took away some of those trick plays he couldn’t deliver. (VALID. LOOK AT THOSE DECEMBER GAMES FOR PROOF. DID MIKE McDANIEL ADJUST?)
“He’s the perfect fit for this offense. I would run those same things with Tua, too, but that doesn’t mean the 20 other guys in front of him can’t do it either, and then some other stuff as well.”
Let us stop right there because we already know Jones can’t do what Tagovailoa does.
IS TUA REALLY QB No. 21?
And neither can Arizona’s Kyler Murray (who lacks the accuracy and anticipation on throws), Detroit’s Jared Goff (no consistency), Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill (no pocket presence), Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins (stat padder), New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (he had one good season), and Seattle’s Geno Smith (phenomenal 2023 performance, but that’s one solid season as well).
Counting Mac Jones, that’s seven quarterbacks I’d argue Tagovailoa should be rated higher than on everyone's list, even his biggest critic (which is Simms).
If upside is factored in, I'd argue Tagovailoa is a top 10 quarterback in 2023 if he can stay healthy.
On some, (say, Kirk Cousins) you might be able to twist my arm a little to put that quarterback ahead of Tagovailoa. But it's all subjective, especially if we take out the quarterback's age and salary.
But there are also some starting quarterbacks who are given too much praise for doing far less than Tagovailoa, who was the top-rated passer of the 2022 season, and the quarterback who delivered the most big passing plays in the NFL last season.
Has Trevor Lawrence proven without a shadow of doubt he’s better than Tagovailoa in his two seasons as Jacksonville’s starter? I’d argue that he hasn’t.
But Simms clearly believes the Jaguars have a better future with Lawrence as the team’s starter than Miami does with Tagovailoa, and he has a right to his opinion.
For all we know, injuries or another concussion might spoil Tagovailoa's 2023 season, and career. But that could be the case for any projected starting quarterback in the NFL.
All we can do at this point is evaluate the body of work so far, and Tagovailoa has a 21-13 record as an NFL starter the past three years, despite all of the challenges he's faced (a coach who disliked him, a disaster for an offensive line the past three seasons, lackluster weapons till last year, a lackluster rushing game for three seasons).
Only time, health, and the season’s outcome will help us determine who is right, and who was wrong in the Great Tua Debate.
