Wilkins Watch Continues ... But Is There A Solution in Sight?

The 2019 first-round pick continues to "hold in" as he seeks a new contract

The Miami Dolphins would love to sign Christian Wilkins to a long-term extension. 

Christian Wilkins would love to stay with the Dolphins for a long time, and the 2019 first-round pick certainly has earned a second contract with his performance and leadership, but it's just not that simple.

We're now less than two weeks away from the start of the 2023 regular season, and it's probably fair to wonder whether Wilkins will have a multi-year extension that keeps him in Miami beyond this season in place. In fact, at this point it might be less likely than more likely.

So what does this stalemate mean in the grand scheme of things? And how did the Dolphins and Wilkins get here? And is there a solution?

HOW WE GOT HERE WITH WILKINS STANDOFF

Before diving into other angles of the situation, it probably makes sense to break down exactly what's going on, which simply is that Wilkins wants a long-term contract and he obviously wants more money than the Dolphins are willing to give him.

This is not about the Dolphins turning their back on one of their foundational pieces because the franchise does want to reward Wilkins, keeping him around. They just don't want to do it at Wilkins' asking price.

So while Wilkins' representation and the Dolphins remain at an impasse, Wilkins has decided to basically stop practicing and participating in preseason games outside of doing stretch and individual drills.

News of the Dolphins signing fellow defensive lineman Zach Sieler to a three-year extension worth almost $39 million, which features $20 million in guaranteed money, likely isn't going to help the situation with Wilkins.

For one thing, logic says the Dolphins would work backward with their significant contract negotiations, meaning from highest to lowest salaries involved. So the Sieler extension suggests that maybe the Dolphins have come to the realization there's at an impasse with Wilkins.

WHAT IS WILKINS WORTH?

If 2022 was the year prices got inflated at wide receiver, then 2023 has been the year of the defensive tackle come-up, and Wilkins wants in on substantial pay raises.

So far this year, he's watched Quinnen Williams ($24 million average, $48 million fully guaranteed, per overthecap.com), Jeffery Simmons ($23.5 million average, $48 million full guaranteed), Daron Payne ($22.5 million average, $46 million fully guaranteed) and former Clemson teammate Dexter Lawrence ($22.5 million average, $46.5 million fully guaranteed) all get big money deals.

The problem for Wilkins is that while he might be the best run defender of any interior defensive lineman in the NFL, he's not the same level of contributor when it comes to pass rusher, which some would say is a critical factor to being a disruptive defensive linemen.

Wilkins finished the 2022 season with 3.5 sacks and 7 quarterback hits, falling way short of the others — Lawrence had 7.5 sacks and 28 QB hits, Simmons had 7.5 sacks and 14 QB hits, Williams had 12 sacks and 28 QB hits, Payne had 11.5 sacks and 20 QB hits.

While there's obviously value in what Wilkins does as a run defender (not to mention the intangibles), getting after the quarterback has more value in today's NFL. Maybe it's pure coincidence, but only five of the top 13 teams (38.5 percent) in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per carry in 2022 made the playoffs, while six of the top 11 (64.5) in sacks per attempts qualified.

Wilkins is scheduled to play the 2023 season under his fifth-year option, which is worth $10.7 million guaranteed. At that salary he's the sixth-highest paid Dolphins player in 2023.

HOW DOES THE WILKINS SITUATION GET RESOLVED?

The Dolphins are believed to have a standing offer to Wilkins, one that obviously hasn't been to his liking, otherwise he would have signed it by now.

That Miami moved on to take care of Sieler certainly would seem to suggest the Dolphins might not move from their offer. So what does Wilkins do then?

Despite his current "hold-in," the reality is Wilkins doesn't have a ton of leverage at this point because he's under contract, and dragging his "hold-in" into the regular season would start costing him money — $630,000 per game he would lose by sitting out games if that's a direction he wanted to go.

Even beyond this year, the Dolphins still could keep Wilkins around by putting the franchise tag on him, which would provide him a one-year deal for $22.2 million, per overthecap.com.

Put that franchise tag price together with his fifth-year option and the Dolphins would be paying Wilkins $32.9 million for the 2023 and 2024 season. That breaks down to $16.5 million a season, which could be a tipping point for Miami from a negotiating standpoint.

While it's too early to start focusing on what will happen with Wilkins next offseason, the current situation might not have a perfect resolution that would make everybody happy. And in this scenario, one where an agreement on a new long-term deal can't be reached, it's difficult to envision Wilkins forfeiting game checks.

The Dolphins, though, would then have to face the possibility of having a disgruntled front-line player on their roster, a player head coach Mike McDaniel recently said sets the tone in practice.

How much is that worth to the organization? Would it be as much as Wilkins wants?

That's why this is a delicate situation, one without a simple answer.

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