The Parker Projection Point ... and Counterpoint
Wide receiver DeVante Parker still has his skeptics.
It doesn't matter that he ended the 2019 season as the top wide receiver in the AFC in terms of receiving yards and touchdown catches, the consensus seems to be that it was a fluke because he hadn't done anything remotely similar in his first four NFL seasons.
But there's one factor that seems to be overlooked, and it's an important one.
ESPN recently ranked the top 10 at each position in a survey of NFL executives and Parker didn't place in top 10 and wasn't among the five honorable mentions.
Furthermore, two Sports Illustrated fantasy and gambling writers have Parker as a player to avoid in 2020.
In a story that ran this week, SI fantasy and gambling Matt De Lima had Parker as one of his 10 players to avoid.
"In his first four years, DeVante Parker time and time again disappointed all of us," De Lima wrote. "What I would describe my feelings towards him as a player can only be described as, 'butthurt.' That’s what the kids say these days.
"In Year 5, Parker finally put it together for a 72-1,202-9 season, ranking him the WR11 in 2019 PPR leagues.
"Some may view Parker as a value. After all, he’s being drafted as the WR25 and he easily outpaced that last season. However, it appears fantasy players are correctly are choosing to remember his history more than his flash in the pan."
In an SI video, fantasy and gambling analyst Ben Heisler said Parker should be avoided because the uncertain situation at quarterback after he established an obvious chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick and also because Preston Williams was the Dolphins' best receiver in the first half of the 2019 season.
Those are all valid points, but here's what missing.
Because the Dolphins so completely revamped the roster heading into the 2019 season, what happened in the first seven or eight games cannot be used as a proper gauge.
Yes, Williams was more productive than Parker in those first eight games, but Williams' production in those first eight games (32 catches, 428 yards, 3 touchdowns) did not come remotely close to what Parker did in the last eight (44 catches, 802 yards, 5 touchdowns).
The point: Parker was much better in the second half than Williams was in the first — both in terms of numbers and in terms of playmaking.
We don't really need to talk about what he did to Stephon Gilmore, right?
Was it all Parker? No, the offensive line got progressively throughout the 2019 season, which allowed Fitzpatrick more time to throw the ball. Also, the quarterback situation was unsettled until Week 7 when Fitzpatrick returned as the starter for good.
Another key point: Parker was able to play all 16 games for the first time in his career. He had repeated since arriving in 2015 that his confidence had never wavered and that all he needed was to stay healthy to put up numbers.
He did, and he did.
Because he was injured so often in his first four seasons, sure, it's fair to be skeptical about his ability to play 16 games again in 2020.
What's not fair is to say his success in 2019 came about only because Williams was injured and only because he was able to have Fitzpatrick as his quarterback and that he can't repeat that success because Williams is expected back and because Tua Tagovailoa likely will take over at quarterback at some point.
Like, what, you don't think Tua is going to be zoning in on Parker quite a bit.
Maybe, just maybe, Parker finally got over the injury bug and delivered on his potential. After all, there was a reason he was the 14th overall pick in that 2015 draft.
Is Parker a slam dunk to repeat his success? Absolutely not. But maybe media types shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility.
