Is Oregon QB Bo Nix Being Judged Unfairly in 2024 NFL Draft?
With the smallest aDOT in the 2024 NFL Draft class, Oregon QB Bo Nix is criticized for throwing a lot of screen passes. Is that fair?
Scouting the quarterback position is arguably the most difficult job for an NFL team. It's one of the biggest inexact sciences in all of sports with little continuity between those who are successful and those who aren't.
One of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft class is Oregon QB Bo Nix. A former five-star recruit, Nix was a five year starter with a record 61 starts at Auburn and Oregon. In that time, there were some significant improvements with his play, including taking Oregon to a New Years Six bowl game in 2023.
The one area where he struggles is with his average depth of target. He only threw an average of 6.9 yards down the field and had a screen rate of 21.7%. Fran Duffy mentions that element and mentions how that stat is treated differently from player to player.
It's an interesting discussion to have but it's also just cherrypicking. I don't believe Duffy is being disingenuous but rather just pointing out something interesting. The biggest difference between Nix and these players? They are all more talented and the offense wasn't built for the quarterback like it was for Nix.
Need some stats to show the differences? Let's take a look at their aDOT.
Trevor Lawrence: 9.0 yards
Justin Herbert: 8.8 yards
Deshaun Watson: 9.2 yards
That ability to truly drive the ball down the field is why he's criticized more for it than the others on the list. They are just more talented than Nix is and that piece of context is important.
