Despite Winning, Falcons Still Face Major 4th-Quarter Problems
While the NFL may be a result-driven league, it still matters how you got there.
For the Atlanta Falcons, the good news is that they won in Week 9. The box score says Falcons 27, Saints 25.
And with the win, the Falcons are back at the .500 mark. Next week, they will have a third opportunity (counting Week 1) to move above the .500 mark for the first time since the end of the 2017 season. ... their challenge coming at Dallas, against a probably-angry Cowboys bunch that just got beaten, and trolled, by the Broncos.
But the Falcons barely beat the New Orleans Saints, who started Trevor Siemian at quarterback Sunday. It's not so much that they almost lost to Siemian, though. It's how it happened.
The Falcons took an 18-point lead with 10:39 left in the fourth quarter. Atlanta's defense made a huge play, recording a strip sack of Siemian and setting up Matt Ryan inside the New Orleans 10-yard line. The Falcons scored a touchdown one play later.
That should have been the game. Just like Cordarrelle Patterson's touchdown with 12:51 remaining should have ended things against the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.
Although the Falcons won both contests, it took a Younghoe Koo game-winning kick at the buzzer to escape with victories.
"We just like to give our fans a heart attack," joked Patterson. "Just to keep them on their toes to make sure they're paying attention.
"We got the win; that's all that matters."
A win's a win. But this formula for winning is not sustainable.
While an NFL coach is never fired for one reason, the Dan Quinn era in Atlanta ended in large part because his teams had a fourth-quarter problem. The Falcons blew Super Bowl LI and never got over it. Last year, they lost multiple double-digit leads on their way to an 0-5 start.
Under new coach Arthur Smith, the Falcons still have a fourth-quarter problem.
The Falcons are last in the league with a miserable minus-57 point differential in the fourth quarter. There are only two other teams with a fourth-quarter point differential worse than minus-40 -- the Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears.
Chicago could allow two touchdowns to the Pittsburgh Steelers and not score in the fourth quarter Monday night, and still, the Bears would not have a worse point differential than the Falcons.
Through the first eight games, the Falcons are giving up an average of 13 points in the fourth quarter per contest. No other team has an average of more than 10 fourth-quarter points allowed per game.
If anything, the Falcons have been worse in the fourth quarter under Smith than with Quinn. Atlanta is blowing double-digit leads sooner, and Matt Ryan has enough time on the clock to put together a last-minute field-goal drive.
Although the defense is a major culprit in the poor Atlanta fourth quarters this season, the offense hasn't been great either. The Falcons are 22nd in fourth-quarter points.
With big leads, though, scoring isn't the primary objective. Running the clock is, and that usually can't happen without some kind of running game. Atlanta is ranked in the bottom five in rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Against the Saints on Sunday, the Falcons averaged 1.4 yards per rush.
Like most head coaches, Smith doesn't seem caught up in the statistics.
"Our guys don’t flinch," Smith said after beating New Orleans. "I was joking with [Falcons owner Arthur] Mr. Blank that I’ll get a text later from my mother telling me to stop doing that. We’re just trying to win. So, we’ll do it any way we can."
It's more than fair for a head coach to take that approach. Again, a win's a win.
But unless something drastically changes with the Falcons defense or running game, no Atlanta lead will be safe in the fourth quarter this season. In Dallas this week. And beyond.
