ESPN Makes Big Michael Penix Jr. Predictions

ESPN made short and long-term predictions for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. isn't expected to play much for the team in 2024. However, that doesn't mean there aren't big expectations riding on his shoulders.

The Falcons surprised most people when they took Penix weeks after handing 35-year old Kirk Cousins a 4-year, $180-million contract. But there were few questions about Penix's tools as passer making him worthy of being a first-round pick.

ESPN+ broke down every quarterback taken in the NFL Draft and discussed how they fit with the team, plus a short and long-term prediction. From a scheme and fit standpoint, Jordan Reid thinks Penix makes perfect sense in Atlanta.

"Coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both come to the Falcons after spending the previous five seasons with the Rams, so we can expect some concepts similar to what Sean McVay runs in L.A. -- and the explosive arm and downfield accuracy of Penix fits well with such a scheme. What is still unclear is exactly when Penix might see game action," wrote Reid on ESPN+.

One of the problems with connecting Robinson to Penix is the time frame. Penix isn't expected to start until 2026 at the earliest. That's when the bulk of Cousins's guaranteed money has already been paid.

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If Robinson has a lot of success with the Falcons in the next-two years, he'll be on top of the lists in a lot of head coach searches in 2026. If he doesn't have success, he'll be replaced.

Every team in the NFL changed offensive coordinators the last-two seasons. The odds of a Penix and Robinson pairing are microscopic.

Just because he isn't the starter, doesn't mean Penix won't see some time during regular season games. He should enter 2024 as the No. 2 quarterback. No one wants Taylor Heinicke taking away snaps from Penix, and the Falcons' moves since acquiring Penix have made that apparent.

Mop up duty or an injury to Cousins puts the 24-year old Penix on the field.

ESPN's fantasy football analyst Mike Clay predicted 471 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2024 for Penix.

It's the long-term prediction from Reid that had the Falcons excited about Penix's potential. When asked what stat each quarterback could lead the league in five years, Reid was all about the explosive plays.

"Completions on throws at least 20 yards downfield," wrote Reid. "Penix was exceptionally accurate in those third-level areas at Washington, completing a nation-leading 46 throws of 20-plus air yards during his final college season. Expect that skill set to shine in the Falcons' scheme."

The Falcons invested heavily in offensive-skill players before the arrival of Cousins and Penix. Cousins is being counted on to help get the most out of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson the next two years.

Penix was drafted to make sure that young core keeps producing as they spend their prime years with the Atlanta Falcons.