Updated NFL Draft Order: Where - And Who - Are Falcons Picking?
The Atlanta Falcons fell to 6-8 after their loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. The loss currently has them with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
The Washington Football Team is also 6-8, but Washington beat the Falcons and the strength of schedule tiebreaker is in favor of Atlanta as well.
Atlanta could have moved up to the No. 8 spot if the Seattle Seahawks had been able to hold on to their 10-3 third-quarter lead over the LA Rams on Tuesday night, but they ended up falling 20-10 and dropping to 5-9 on the season.
There are a glut of teams just one game behind the Falcons at 7-7. Six teams are sitting at .500 right now which would indicate a possible big variance in the Falcons draft position.
But the Falcons strength of schedule, opponents winning percentage, is .464 tied for second-easiest in the league with the Tennessee Titans and ahead of the 7-7 Miami Dolphins.
The Falcons strength of schedule percentage is about to go even lower with the 2-11-1 Detroit Lions visiting Atlanta this weekend. Detroit may have won only two games on the season, but they have won two out of three including wins over the Arizona Cardinals (10-4) and Minnesota Vikings (7-7), two teams currently in playoff positions.
Should the Falcons fail to win their first game of the season at home on Sunday against Detroit, dropping the final three games and a 6-11 record becomes a real possibility.
After the Lions, the Falcons must travel to Buffalo to take on the 8-6 Bills before closing the season at home against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints moved to 7-7 with their 9-0 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday and have suddenly found life. New Orleans has won two in a row after dropping five straight starting with their loss to the Falcons on November 7th.
Should the Falcons finish 6-11, the highest they would likely pick is seventh. The Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers sit at 5-9 while the Chicago Bears and New York Giants have just four wins on the season.
Seattle closes the season with Chicago, Detroit, and Arizona, and the Panthers finish with Tampa Bay (twice) and in New Orleans to take on the Saints.
The likeliest of scenarios has the Seahawks beating the Bears and Lions at home to finish 7-10. The Falcons beat the Lions before falling to the Bills and Saints, finishing 7-10, and the Panthers drop their final three games and finish 5-12.
Washington finishes the season at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia, and at the New York Giants. Picking up one win would likely keep them behind the Falcons.
The most likely case for the Falcons draft pick in April is they pick No. 8 behind the Carolina Panthers.
There are 16 teams between 6-8 and 8-6 this year, a dream for the parity engineers of the NFL. If the Falcons were to pull off a couple of upsets to close the year, they could see their draft position fluctuate wildly.
But one win and two losses to finish the season 7-10 looks the most likely, and is what we predicted in October when the Falcons were 3-3.
A No. 8 pick for the Falcons would give them a chance at an impact player at one of the premium positions of need. The best drafts match the best player available with a position of need, and that should be easy for the Falcons, because they need virtually everything.
Safety Kyle Hamilton of Notre Dame could be the best player in the draft. He could fall to the Falcons at the back half of the top 10, because safety isn't considered a premium position in the draft. But it's a gaping hole in the Falcons secondary, and plugging that hole with Hamilton would be a boon for general manager Terry Fontenot.
Offensive tackle Ikem Ekwonu of NC State is considered the No. 8 prospect by NFL Mock Draft Database, and offensive tackle Charles Cross of Mississippi State sits right behind him at nine.
Right tackle is a huge need for this Falcons team and either would provide an immediate upgrade over Kaleb McGary who has struggled since the Falcons traded up to take him in the first round of the 2019 draft.
There's a chance Purdue's George Karlaftis could be available as well as Michigan's David Ojabo. Both are edge rushers who would fill arguably the biggest hole on the Falcons defense.
The Falcons have shown improvement this season after a 4-12 finish last year with arguably a worse roster. A top-ten pick should be another big step in Atlanta's rebuild.
