New York Giants Training Camp Preview - WR Sterling Shepard

What's in store for the Giants' longest tenured player?

Author:
Patricia Traina
Publish date:
Jul 13, 2021 2:00 PM EDT

Is history repeating itself? When it comes to Giants receiver Sterling Shepard, the evidence sure is there.

Shepard was drafted in the second round out of Oklahoma in 2016 as the heir presumptive to Victor Cruz's slot position. When the Giants had to move on from Cruz, Shepard moved into the slot where he played some of his best (and healthiest) football.

In those first three seasons, Shepard finished either first or second on the team in receiving yards (he finished first in 2017 with 731 yards, a total he'd top in 2018). His totals over that period were 190 receptions out of 296 pass targets for 2,286 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Those figures were good enough for Shepard to earn a contract extension before his rookie deal ran out. But then when the Giants traded away Odell BEckham Jr and replaced him with Golden Tate, another slot receiver, Shepard's slot snaps declined--and with it, his production.

To give you an idea of how productive Shepard has been in the slot, he's scored 17 out of his 20 career touchdowns from that spot. He also caught 69.4% of the pass targets thrown to him in the slot, and 2,215 of his 3,518 career receiving yards have come from the slot.

Let's take a closer look at what's made Shepard so good--and why history could be repeating itself.

What He Brings

One of Shepard's most appealing yet underrated talents continues to be his expertise in finding soft spots against zone coverage. According to data from Pro Football Focus, Shepard's reception percentage when facing zone coverage has led the team in every season he's been on the roster--and remember he was on a team with Beckham, who played a bit in the slot as well, for the first three seasons of his career.

Another of his talents is his ability to adjust to the ball in flight. Not all passes are thrown on the money by the quarterback, just as sometimes a receiver might overrun or underrun a pass.

Shepard has shown exceptional judgment in adjusting his route to get himself into the right position to make a reception while the ball is in flight, even going so far sometimes as to fool defenders into over-running him while he adjusts.

RELATED: WR Sterling Shepard: The Good, the Great and the Ugly

His route running is another strength to his game, particularly his ability to sell fakes to defenders. According to NFL NextGen Stats, Shepard was the best of the Giants receivers last year with creating separation with his route running, averaging a team-best 3 yards of separation.

His Contract

Shepard will count for $9 million against the cap this year, the final year of his contract in which he has guaranteed money due to him ($4.025 million of his $6.9725 million base salary is guaranteed this year).

With the Giants projected to be squeezed against the cap next year and with them having drafted Toney in the first round as a potential replacement in the slot, Shepard could be about to start his final season as a Giant.

He has two years remaining on his contract extension, but next year will be due to count for a whopping $10.5 million, which is way too much to pay for a guy who could see his snaps reduced this year.

While the Giants could always negotiate a restructured deal given that Shepard will have two years remaining on his contract after this season if he misses any more time due to injury (especially due to a head injury), that could make for an unhappy ending to his Giants career.

Roster Projection/Expectations

The biggest concern with Shepard is his health. Two seasons ago, he suffered two head injuries within six weeks of one another. Last year he suffered a turf toe that knocked him out in Week 2 for about three games.

Worth asking here is if the decision to have Shepard, who at 5'10" and 196 pounds isn't exactly a "big-bodied receiver," play on the outside these last two seasons contributed in any way to his health issues (most likely it's just been a coincidence).

Whatever the answer--and we may never know--history seems to be taking shape to repeat itself. The Giants drafted Kadarius Toney, who at Florida was primarily a slot receiver, in the first round this year, a move that suggests he's the heir apparent to Shepard in the slot.

Since the Giants didn't draft Toney to sit on the bench, it would not be surprising if the coaches plan to have Toney take on some of the snaps that might ordinarily have gone to Shepard, especially in the slot.

Shepard, who while not an 'old man" at 28 but who is getting up there in terms of football years and the mileage, might benefit from a slightly reduced role if it helps him get through a season that could very well be his final one as a Giant given his contract.

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