PFF Reveals Interesting Choices for 2019 Giants' First-Round Draft Do-over
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Imagine how much better life could be if we could go back in time and re-do some of our decisions.
Unfortunately, we can't, but that didn't stop Pro Football Focus from going back in time and re-drafting the first round of the 2019 NFL draft for all 32 teams.
"Sexy Dexy's" Still the Man
When it came to the Giants, who had the sixth and 17th overall picks in that draft--they traded up to the 30th spot as well, but author Trevor Sikkema decided not to include trades made during draft weekend--the popular analytics site had a split opinion on what the Giants did.
The Giants' pick Sikkema agreed with was interior defensive lineman Dexter Lawerence, chosen No. 17 overall with the first-round pick the Giants had obtained from Cleveland before the draft in exchange for receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
The Giants still would have this pick, as it wasn’t a draft-day trade; this was the selection they received in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade. They took Lawrence at this spot in 2019, and that's still the right choice in this re-draft. The bigger-bodied Lawrence recorded a 73.3 pass-rushing grade in 2021, the fifth-best of any defensive lineman in the class.
Now entering his fourth season, Lawrence has done enough to convince the new regime to exercise the option year on his rookie contract. If this new scheme can help Lawrence finish off more of his pass rushes, which right now is probably the most glaring part of his game, the former Clemson defender could end up being a steal for the Giants.
No Love for Daniel Jones
Unfortunately for quarterback Daniel Jones, the sixth overall pick in that class, Sikkema felt New York should have gone in a completely different direction. His choice for New York in that spot is receiver Terry McLaurin, who went to Washington in the third round.
Sikkema notes that McLaurin "has averaged more than 1,000 yards a year through his first three NFL seasons" and that the future looks bright for the receiver this year, who now, thanks to having an upgrade at quarterback in Carson Wentz, could be poised to have his best season yet.
Before diving into the McLaurin selection, let's explore the direction the Giants pursued.
A Rocky Road
An argument can be made that Jones was overdrafted at this spot, and one can't help but wonder if the reports of teams behind the Giants from No. 7-16 eyeing Jones had to do with them prioritizing the quarterback.
At the time, the team still had 38-year-old Eli Manning on the roster. Ahead of that year's draft, there were loud whispers that the Giants coveted Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, whom then-general manager Dave Gettleman had personally scouted.
Herbert, who went to the Chargers the following year, decided to return to school that year. The Giants, who had begun prioritizing their search for their next franchise quarterback with the hopes of having him spend at least a season with Manning, decided against bringing in a stop-gap veteran to potentially fill the void after Manning's contract expired and they went with Jones.
And why not? They figured Jones had many of Manning's traits and then some (i.e., his athleticism). They also knew that Jones had been developed in college by David Cutcliffe, the same man who developed Eli and Peyton Manning in college.
The fit seemed perfect--or so they thought. While it might have been a good fit, the fact remains that the Giants didn't prepare for the transition.
Jones, to his credit, stuck to Manning like glue. However, in the day-to-day coaching of the young quarterback, head coach Pat Shurmur and offensive coordinator Mike Shula handled Jones's development, while Manning served as more of a resource when called upon.
Unfortunately, what was supposed to have been a redshirt year for Jones went out the window when the Giants got off to an 0-2 start. Shurmur, fascinated by Jones's athleticism and ability as a runner, realized that playing the rookie could potentially open a whole new chapter of the playbook that the less mobile Manning wasn't capable of delivering.
Three games into the 2019 campaign, the change was made. While Jones won his first two games as a starter by a combined 56-34 (he also won NFC Offensive Player of the Week after his first career start resulted in a victory over Tampa Bay), things went south for the Giants.
New York wouldn't win another game that year until Weeks 13 and 14 when Manning was inserted back into the lineup for his final games after Jones was forced to sit out with a lower-body injury. Still, Jones would finish with 3,027 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, despite a 3-9 record as a starter.
After 2019, Shurmur was fired, and Jones embarked on an odyssey that co-owner John Mara admitted did the signal-caller no favors.
But while it's certainly true that the Giants' failure to provide stability for Jones in the form of a favorable offensive scheme or a decent offensive line, Jones has also had a hand in his struggles.
From his carelessness with the ball--he has 37 career fumbles, of which 20 balls were lost--to his slow post-snap processing, Jones hasn't taken the step forward that the team was hoping to see by his third season. Add that he's missed time due to injury in every season, and it's certainly easy to see why one might want a do-over with this pick.
What About McLaurin?
McLaurin has thrived in a system where his supporting cast has been borderline at best. As Sikkema noted, the receiver has recorded at least 900 yards in each of his three seasons, his last two seeing him go over 1,000 receiving yards with mediocre quarterback play.
While McLaurin has been the central point of Washington's offense, his numbers--including two straight 1,000-yard campaigns--haven't quite been top-10. His 222 receptions put him 16th among NFL receivers, while his 3,090 receiving yards puts him 13th.
While that's not bad production, re-drafting McLaurin with the sixth overall pick might have been as ill-advised as the Giants' taking Jones.
Who Should It Have Been at No. 6?
When the Giants were on the clock at No. 6, it came down to Jones or Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen.
The Giants very nearly chose Allen, but the allure of the quarterback and having him "learn" under Manning was too good to pass up. The Jaguars then chose Allen with the next pick--Sikkema had Allen going No. 13 to Miami in his re-draft--and the rest, as they say, was history.
While Jones might still turn out to be salvageable, one can't help but wonder what adding a bonafide pass rusher, who in 40 career games has 20.5 sacks, 48 quarterback hits, and, per Pro Football Focus, 121 total pressures, would have done for a bottom-dwelling pass rush.
According to ESPN's Stats & Info, after peaking in 2019 with a 17th place ranking with a 41 percent pass-rush win rate, the Giants finished dead last in league with a 31 percent pass-rush win rate in 2020, and last year, they finished 30th, with a 34 percent pass-rush win rate.
The Bottom Line
Life--and in particular the NFL--provides very few mulligans, so what's done is done as far as the decisions made in the 2019 draft.
While Jones still has an opportunity to develop into the quarterback the franchise envisioned, if things don't pan out, the organization will again be set back in its quest to emerge from nearly a decade of losing football.
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