San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: First Look
New York will host the 2019 NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers in their upcoming Week 3 matchup. It’s the second consecutive week of MetLife Stadium for the Niners, who are 1-1 on the season after defeating Sam Darnold and the New York Jets.
The 49ers are not the team that competed against Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl primarily due to injuries, many of which came against the Jets last weekend.
They lost defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas for the year with torn ACLs. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain, and running backs Tevin Coleman & Raheem Mostert, Dee Ford, D.J. Jones, and Dre Greenlaw (the last three may be available against the Giants).
There were also prior injuries heading into the contest that affect the identity of the 49ers team. Cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, and star tight end George Kittle were declared out before the Jets game.
The 49ers are a beatable team with many injuries, now led by backup quarterback Nick Mullins. Nevertheless, the brilliant mind of Kyle Shanahan will give the Niners a chance to defeat a competitive, yet winless, Giants’ team.
49ers on Offense
Last season, The 49ers were second in the NFL, averaging 153.5 rushing yards per game, while averaging 4.8 yards per rush with Jimmy Garoppolo as their quarterback (a non-rushing player).
The Niners were fifth in the league in time of possession, and eighth in the league in yards per game with 374.
It’s hard to truly identify the game plan of a team that just lost their two starting running backs, their quarterback, and still don’t have their best player (tight end George Kittle) on offense, but I’m sure the game plan will revolve around running the football.
Shanahan is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the NFL. The loss of Garoppolo could be huge for the Giants; there’s a false perception that Garoppolo is nothing but a glorified game manager, and that’s a bit disingenuous.
Garoppolo used precision to dominate the middle of the field in 2019, along with the help of Kittle. There wasn’t a team that passed the ball more between the numbers in the middle of the field than the Niners.
While targeting the middle, Garoppolo had 9.2 yards per attempt average, a 109 passer rating, and 0.36 EPA, ranked in the top 5 among quarterbacks targeting that specific section of the field. According to Warren Sharp's statistics, the NFL average success rate is 44%; Garopplo was 49%.
Yes, having Kittle helps, and yes, the vaunted rushing attack assists Garoppolo here as well, but no team had a higher explosive passing rate in the last four seasons than the 2019 49ers.
These explosive plays were probably assisted by Shanahan's proclivity to run play action and use pre-snap motion. The Niners ranked fourth in the NFL, from the first till the end of the third quarter, in play-action pass attempts.
According to Sharp, they had the fifth-largest improvement in success rate and seventh-largest improvement in yards per attempt when using play-action.
In theory, one reason why their play-action pass was so effective was that they were able to run the football so well with Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, both of whom are projected to miss this game against the Giants.
However, I feel Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, and whoever else Shanahan deems fit can execute the offense well enough to be dangerous. The pressure will lie on the shoulders of the backup quarterback Nick Mullins.
The 49ers are one of the few teams who frequently incorporate 21 personnel packages with their fullback Kyle Juszczyk. According to Sharp, the 49ers were in 21 personnel 33% of all their rushing attempts last year.
They’re second in the league in EPA, fourth in yards per carry, and seventh in success rate when running out of 21 personnel. Shanahan used 21 personnel extensively against the Jets, and the effectiveness of Juszczyk, along with the creative pre-snap motions, counters, misdirections, and the varied concepts, were difficult for the Jets to overcome.
The offensive line of the 49ers is very good. They made the offseason trade for Trent Williams after Joe Staley retired, and Williams is a top 5 tackle in the league.
On the right side of the line of scrimmage, Mike McGlinchey is a rock. The three interior linemen are all-powerful at the point of attack and possess solid lateral agility to run the stretch concepts that the 49ers employed against the Jets.
Expect Shanahan to run a lot of stretch zone and outside zone against this Giants’ defensive front that lines up a lot in bear type of looks.
I expect Shanahan to establish the rushing attack through 21 personnel while attempting to work the play-action game to take intermediate/deep shots against the New York Giants’ secondary.
The route concepts' effectiveness against man coverage will be based on the spacing and timing of how the 49ers receivers run their routes.
The 49ers will use pre-snap motion to decipher Patrick Graham’s defense while also removing a defender away from the area they want to attack in either the rushing or passing phase of the offense.
Expect to see tight stacks, delayed releases, and a lot of route traffic in an attempt to bait a Giants’ defender into a disadvantaged position.
The 49ers did this against Gregg Williams and the Jets, and it worked well. Shanahan will likely attempt to run the football the same way, and expect McKinnon to be used a lot out of the backfield.
49ers on Defense
The 49ers defense just suffered a few devastating blows. The loss of Nick Bosa and Soloman Thomas for the season is rough, and there are several other players who are questionable.
The 49ers under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh are aggressive when shooting their gaps in the run fits, leaving them susceptible to play-action passing. They show a lot of one-high and two-high looks but will adjust after the snap.
Their two-high looks, in passing situations, can be a ruse with the defense being Cover-1 and the safety playing off a slot receiver, while Saleh brings the nickel on a blitz. This could be excellent if Jones sees the blitz and can throw hot.
Their primary zone coverage is Cover 3, but they’ll use a lot of man coverage as well. Before the Bosa injury, they were comfortable rushing four and dropping the rest into coverage, but that may change.
The defense is well-coached; they always play with a high level of competitive toughness, and you don’t find them out of position very often, at least when they’ve had the starters out there.
Expect stud linebacker Fred Warner to cover Evan Engram and spy Daniel Jones on passing situations.
The Giants will probably struggle to run in the A-gap against the rookie out of South Carolina, Javon Kinlaw, who is going up against Nick Gates. It’s going to be a long day for Gates, and the Giants will have to answer for the sheer talent, strength, and hustle of Kinlaw.
Linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jimmie Ward are difference-making players on the second level of the defense. New York’s offensive line will struggle to rush the football in third-and-short situations as the 49ers are very aggressive with their gap penetration.
They were frequently in the backfield to meet Josh Adams and Frank Gore of the Jets for a loss of yardage. This has been all too apparent for the Giants in their first two matchups with Saquon Barkley, and I expect the Niners to do the same while putting the game on Daniel Jones’ shoulders.
With all the injuries the 49ers suffered, it’s very plausible that Giants head coach Joe Judge earns his first victory. Jason Garrett has to find ways to contain Kinlaw, run the football, and sustain drives, so their defense isn’t tired out.
Hopefully, Garrett incorporates some play action and misdirection on short-yardage plays, so the 49ers aren’t living in the backfield.
Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis, who project to carry the load for the Giants running game this week, might be in for a long day on Sunday.
Both teams have suffered losses, and the 49ers are tentative to play on the MetLife Stadium turf, but they have no choice to do so for a second straight week.
The Giants may be able to capitalize on a dinged up team that’s has let the turf monster creep into its head and which has been away from home, spending its time in between games down at The Greenbrier in West Virginia.
