Saquon or Xavier? Which UFA Can Giants Not Afford to Lose?

With Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney being free agents this offseason, which player can the Giants not afford to lose?

Author:
Andrew Parsaud
Publish date:
Feb 16, 2024 10:00 AM EST

In this story:

New York Giants

The New York Giants have some tough decisions ahead of the 2024 league year that begins on March 13, which is also the start of the free agency period. They have 22 pending unrestricted free agents, with 26 total players set to hit the market, players with whom they can negotiate new deals now if they so choose.

Two players are at the top of that list: running back Saquon Barkley and safety Xavier McKinney. Both were voted captains the last two seasons and are very talented players on the roster. Yet, for as important of a role as both played last year, there is little assurance that both will be back in 2024.

The Giants, with limited cap space and a lot of needs, might just have to pick one over the other in terms of whom they aggressively seek to retain. With that being said, which one of those players would hurt the Giants more from losing?

Let's hash it out.

Saquon Barkley

When Barkley was selected as the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, he was hailed by then-Giants general manager Dave Gettleman as a "gold jacket" (Hall of Fame) candidate "touched by the hand of God."

Unfortunately, through no fault of his own, Barkley has proven to be a mere mortal. He's appeared in a full season only twice in his six-year career, otherwise losing time to injuries, including an ACL injury in 2020, which, despite insistence to the contrary, has robbed him of that burst he had before the injury.

And when he's been on the field, the Giants have a 25-48-1 record. Still, the Giants and Barkley want to make it so that he finishes his career as a Giant, but both sides seem to differ on the value of a contract that will make that possible.

Barkley, who was franchise-tagged last offseason, wasn’t particularly happy with his negotiation process. He’s going into this offseason with possibly the same dilemma: either get franchise-tagged again, test the open market, and allow the Giants to match the best offer, or simply go to another team.

Parting with Barkley has pros and cons, but can the Giants live without him?

He had a “down” year in terms of numbers, but considering he missed four games, he more than likely would’ve eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark again. However, this injury history, coupled with the fact that he’s certainly not getting any younger--last year, he saw some of his prior third-down duties taken off his place--could be enough of an argument for the Giatns to justify moving on from him.

That said, there’s still a lot left in the tank in terms of Barkley’s play on the field. A three-year contract, which is about what Barkley figures to get, would ensure he's on the Giatns' books until he's 30, even if the contract has an out after two years. And the Giants, who have so many needs, really must ask themselves if Barkley is a luxury they can't afford.

The argument's flip side is that Barkley is more than just another player on the Giants. Feelings should be put aside in contract talks, but he’s been the face of the franchise. While he may not be the consistent electric player he was in 2018 and 2019, he’s still a weapon out of the backfield.

His pass-blocking has improved tremendously and provides value in the passing game. He averaged only 3.9 yards per carry this past year, which wasn’t great. Considering how poor the offensive line and offense were, Barkley could still make it work instead of inconsistent quarterback play all season.

Xavier McKinney

Coming off of a career-best year in 2023, McKinney projects to be high on the Giants’ priority list. To add another wrinkle into this argument, McKinney was one of two players to appear in 100% of defensive snaps in 2023, along with teammate Bobby Okereke. It was always nice to see McKinney on the field, especially after he missed eight games in 2022 due to an ATV accident suffered during the bye week and nearly half of his rookie season due to a broken leg.

McKinney’s coverage stats were also solid this past year. He allowed a 63.1% completion rate and a 69.8 quarterback rating when targeted, both the second-best of his career. He also only allowed one touchdown and just seven yards per attempt. His three interceptions were his highest since the 2021 season when he grabbed five.

Spotrac has McKinney’s value set at $10.4 million per year. The Giants could also place the franchise tag on him, but it’d be a better option to lock up a young, rising player at the position. Also, with new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen coming in, McKinney's versatility would make him a far better value to invest in.

The problem, though, is that McKinney wants to be paid, and again, the Giants don't have an abundance of cap space, even with projected moves that will be made, to pour excess resources into a single player.

So Who Will It Hurt to Lose More?

These are both fine players and have contributed a lot to the Giants during their tenures, but in our view, losing McKinney would probably hurt more than losing Barkley.

McKinney is still young and hasn’t reached his full potential just yet. The Giants’ secondary is very young, and they only currently have Jason Pinnock, Dane Belton, and Gervarrius Owens on the roster. Their cornerback situation also isn’t very good. Aside from Deonte Banks, who had a solid rookie season, the only other rostered players are Cor’Dale Flott, Aaron Robinson, and Tre Hawkins.

Having McKinney on the backend is a tremendous advantage that Bowen has to acknowledge. The Titans didn’t have great secondaries during Bowen’s tenure, but he did sometimes have solid safety play (ex., Kevin Byard).

While Barkley is the face of the franchise, and it would hurt many to see him go, it wouldn’t make sense for the Giants at this point to give him a lucrative deal, especially if the team plans on adding a legitimate No. 1 receiver who can potentially create the kinds of headaches Barkley did in the passing game and if they also plan on continuing to use Wan'Dale Robinson as a gadget type of player.

Would it make sense for the Giants to franchise-tag Barkley? Yes, if they believe they can execute a tag and trade, but such a move, as already noted, wouldn't be well-received.

Barkley still has a lot to give and could give contenders a boost, like how Christian McCaffrey elevated the 49ers offense. The Giants just aren’t in a position to allocate a good amount of cap space to Barkley, unfortunately, considering his position.