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NFL 2023 Mock Draft: Giants Target Franchise Quarterback

One highly respected draft analyst is convinced that Daniel Jones won't be in New York in 2023 and tabs this player to replace him.

The New York Giants have yet to take the field for a meaningful snap under new head coach Brian Daboll, so there's no telling what this team will look like under the new regime. That didn't stop NFL draft analyst Matt Miller, who compiled a way too early mock draft for 2023, from addressing what roughly half the fan base likely believes will be the team's most pressing need: quarterback.

Miller has the Giants, drafting No. 10 overall in next year's annual selection meeting, selecting Miami Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Writes Miller:

The new Giants regime didn't draft Daniel Jones in the top 10 in 2019 and declined his fifth-year option, which means he's likely in his final season in New York. That puts the Giants back in the quarterback market.

The 6-foot-4 Van Dyke flashed in nine starts last season (25 touchdown passes, six interceptions), and he could be even better in 2022 because of the staff and roster new coach Mario Cristobal has assembled. Van Dyke has the arm strength and mobility to become a star.

Right off the bat, Miller's assumption that the Giants are ready to give up on Jones just because they (correctly) declined his option year is a dangerous assumption. While it's true that the current regime didn't draft Jones, it declined the quarterback's option year for two primary reasons.

The first is that Jones has yet to put together a full season thanks to injuries. But more importantly, committing an estimated $22.384 million in guaranteed money on a player they haven't seen run this offense yet would be flat-out foolish.

The Giants have admitted to not putting Jones in the best possible position to succeed in his first three seasons. Still, they have tried to make amends by fixing the offensive line and giving him a system that is said to tailor to his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. 

But he still needs to stay on the field and show that he can deliver in that system, morphing from game manager to game-winner if he's to have any chance of being the long-term answer for the Giants.

On the flip side, some believe that the Giants are trying to make a go of it with Jones for the simple reason that this past year's quarterback class wasn't a strong one versus next year's projected class, which is brimming with talent.

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Jones is facing a make-or-break year this season. So far, he's been coming along in the new offense.

Considering Jones is in the final year of his rookie deal, it won't break the Giants' bank to find out if he can execute the offense. If he can, then the two sides can work toward a new long-term contract. If he can't, then both sides can make a clean break at the end of the year.

As for Van Dyke, he's the fifth quarterback to come off the board in Miller's mock, behind Ohio State's C.J. Stroud (No. 5 to Atlanta), Alabama's Bryce Young (No. 7 to Carolina), Kentucky's Will Levis (No. 8 to Detroit), and BYU's Jarren Hall (No. 9 to Seattle).

The 6-foot-3, 220-pounder is in a similar situation as Jones in that he's about to run a new offensive system under head coach Mario Cristobal. Van Dyke is a pure pocket passer with a good arm but who is also limited athletically.

Notes NFL Draft Bible of Van Dyke's abilities:

Van Dyke has sufficient stature for the position with good length and a solid frame. He displays calm feet in the pocket, maintaining efficient footwork and a base from which he can launch the ball. When he does, it is often a thing of beauty thanks to his supreme touch. He seldom misses on fade routes, attacking the upfield shoulder of the receiver, and dropping the ball towards the boundary. His tape is full of high-effort throws, answering any questions about NFL passing ability.

An offense that focused on one progression reads, thanks to RPOs, Van Dyke has no issue physically driving the ball, but his decisions hurt him. When the reigns were “loosened,” he showed a gambler's mentality at times, trusting his arm too much. It is understandable when you see the consistent ability to dot receivers across the field, up the seam, and past safeties but should be utilized accordingly.

He pairs strength with adequate ball placement, often allowing receivers to turn upfield after the catch. However, there were still plays left on the field with Van Dyke, missing big throws at times. The primary reason behind these misses could be his awkward arm angle, in which he presents a three-quarters release.

For a passer that does his best work inside the pocket, Van Dyke can make throws on the move and or when the play breaks down. He was more than comfortable in a moving pocket in 2021, showing his off-platform accuracy on waggles or boots where his eyes stay downfield. That is the extent of his athleticism, though, with little usage in the quarterback run game and a laboring technique when forced to take off and run.

Van Dyke is a gamer, leading his team to multiple comebacks, often against better competition. He understands leverage and the inherent deficiencies of zone coverage, attacking the slightest gaps with his arm velocity. He is a rhythmic passer that can get hot with a few big completions, shredding defenses for the rest of the game.

Based on this scouting report, it sounds like Van Dyke isn't a sure-fire first-round pick, let alone a top-10 pick. But again, it's way too early to be forecasting who's drafting where when there's still a whole new season to be played in both the NFL and in college.

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