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Giants Week 3 Preview: How to ensure the Daniel Jones era begins on a positive note
When the 0-2 New York Giants take on the 1-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it won't be just another game.
No, Sunday afternoon's match-up is the start of a new era of Giants' football as Daniel Jones makes his first start at quarterback.
This would be an intriguing game even if the Giants hadn't ripped off the bandage and made the quarterback change, and there are plenty of layers that will influence the outcome of the game.
Given the magnitude of the change and the importance for the future of the Giants' franchise, we can't avoid starting with the quarterback position.
Everyone knew that Jones would be taking over for Eli Manning at some point after the Giants selected Jones with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
The general assumption was that Manning would start for as long as there was a chance that the Giants could make the playoffs. The Giants frequently mentioned wanting to follow the “Kansas City Model,” referring to the transition from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes in 2017.
That year Smith started every game for the Chiefs until they locked up their playoff berth, and Mahomes was given the final start of the year--a start in which he instantly took the League by storm.
But then the Giants fell to 0-2 for the third consecutive year and the “Kansas City Model” went out the window.
To be clear, Eli Manning has not been the problem with the Giants this year--at least not the only problem and certainly not the biggest problem.
In fact, there were even promising trends in his passing that emerged from the Giants' first game to their second in an increased willingness to look further down the field and attack the defense.
But it's also clear that Jones is the future, and given the reality of the NFL's financial world, the Giants need to find out what they really have in him sooner than later.
That starts with this week's game against Tampa, and head coach Pat Shurmur made it clear that Jones is expected to play like a starting quarterback.
“We demand that they [rookies] perform well,” Shurmur said. “We understand when things happen and why they happen, and we try to correct the mistakes. But no, we’re going to put him out there and expect him to do what he needs to do.”
This is, of course, Jones' first start in the NFL and allowances should be made, but Shurmur isn't setting a low bar for his new quarterback.
So then, what might this all look like?
When The Giants Have The Ball
Tampa head coach Bruce Arians didn't give much away in a conference call with the New York media, but he did state that he doesn't expect the basis of the Giants' offense to really change with Jones at quarterback.
“We look at their offense,” Arians said, “they are not going to change what they are doing, it’s Pat’s offense, he’s just going to run it. For us, it’s trying to stop Saquon and force him to throw the ball.”
And this is likely going to be the case. The Giants' offense is still going to be based on the West Coast principles Shurmur learned while coaching under Andy Reid and have long been the basis of his offenses.
While Jones' athleticism will force defenses to recognize the potential for zone-read plays to be in the game plan, it would be a legitimate shock for the Giants offense to all of a sudden resemble that of Auburn.
Perhaps the biggest change we will see is a change in how often the Giants use “heavy” offensive packages (and which ones they use), and how often the Giants call play-action.
In Week 1, the Giants primarily played out of an 11-personnel package, with three receivers on the field for 83 percent of their plays. In Week 2, that number dropped to 62 percent, while they played 12-personnel (two-tight end) packages on 27 percent of their offensive plays.
With receiver Cody Latimer (concussion) already declared out and Bennie Fowler (hamstring) questionable, we will likely see more instances of two receiver sets than three.
The question is whether those two receiver sets will be 12-personnel or 21-personnel (two backs).
In the preseason the Giants tended toward 12-personnel as their alternate package with Manning but used two-back sets with Jones on the field.
From an analytic point of view, lining up in heavy personnel packages makes sense. By forcing defenses to defend heavier packages and condensing their formation in response to the offense's personnel and alignment, it creates favorable match-ups and windows for the passer.
It also makes sense from a personnel point of view for the Giants when it comes to putting their best players on the field.
While they are expected to have Sterling Shepard (concussion) and Darius Slayton (hamstring), and while TJ Jones played well in his return to the team last week, the receiving corps is still depleted thanks to the injuries to Latimer and Fowler.
The addition of Shepard should be a boon for Jones. The Giants' receivers struggled to get open or generate much separation against the Bills, with Latimer and Fowler each creating an average of fewer than two yards of separation.
Having a player who can consistently get open and cleanly catch the ball is huge for any quarterback, particularly young ones.
Also, having their most dependable receiver and a potential base personnel package which maximizes match-up opportunities in the passing game could also help the Giants with their anemic third-down conversion rate (5-for-23).
While the Giants have been racking up yards both through the air and on the ground, their inability to convert third downs has limited their offense and has kept them out of the end zone.
Of course, with the versatility of tight end Evan Engram to line up anywhere on the field gives the Giants a whole suite of options.
With Engram and Rhett Ellison on the field, New York has the ability to effectively switch from 12 personnel to 21 or 11 personnel on the fly by lining Engram up as a tight end, H-back, or receiver.
That could prove doubly useful as the Giants undoubtedly want to run the ball with Saquon Barkley. But while it seems counter-intuitive and goes against received wisdom, heavy personnel packages aren't ideal for running.
The same defensive adjustments that make it easier and more efficient to throw the ball from heavy personnel packages make it that much harder to run. But by using Engram's alignment to spread the defense out, the Giants can help to create running lanes for Barkley.
Stepping back from the schematic possibilities of the Giants' offense, we can't ignore the Buccaneers' defense.
Edge rusher Shaquil Barrett bet on himself after starting his career with the Denver Broncos behind DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller, and now Bradley Chubb, and so far, that bet is paying off.
Barrett has been one of the best and most effective pass rushers in the NFL. Thus far, he has accounted for all of the Bucs' four sacks, logging three sacks and 8 total pressures against the Carolina Panthers last week. He is blossoming in Todd Bowles' defense.
The Giants' offense will at least have some familiarity with the general shape of Bowles' defense thanks to James Bettcher's time coaching under Bowles with the Arizona Cardinals.
But even knowing what might happen, Tampa's defensive front could pose a problem for an offensive line which struggled against the Buffalo Bills.
In addition to Barrett, nose tackle Vita Vea, DT Beau Allen, defensive ends Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston, edge rusher Carl Nassib, and linebacker Lavonte David were able to control the line of scrimmage against the Panthers. If they are able to collapse the pocket and contain Saquon Barkley, the Giants could be in for a long evening.
The one positive is the absence of rookie linebacker Devin White. White is one of the few linebackers in the NFL who can physically match up with Saquon Barkley and cover Engram in space.
His absence could allow the Giants to attack the middle of the field and slow down Bowles' aggressive defense.
Giants-Bucs Week 3 Preview.
by Patricia Traina (stats from Inside Edge)
When The Buccaneers Have The Ball
Can the Giants defense stop anybody? That is the question coming into Week 3 after giving up an average 31.5 points over the first two weeks to Dallas and the Bills, teams that seemed able to score at will.
There were glimpses of an effective defense and the end of the second quarter and in the third quarter against Buffalo, but once the Giants pulled within one score of the Bills, the defense proved unable to get off the field.
Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is one of the most inconsistent passers in the NFL, but he is capable of gashing a defense if not respected.
He has dealt with a foot injury but seems to be getting healthier as well as finding his stride within Bruce Arians' offense. Winston had a bad performance in week one, but rebounded nicely against the Panthers, completing 65 percent of his passes and averaging nearly 8 air yards per completion.
Making matters worse for a struggling Giants' secondary is the situation the Bucs have at receiver. Not only is Chris Godwin emerging as a dangerous threat in the passing game, but Mike Evans is once again healthy after battling the flu.
Rookie corner DeAndre Baker will be under heavy scrutiny after playing nearly every snap and giving up a perfect passer rating when targeted by Josh Allen.
How the Giants deploy their secondary, and Baker in particular, will be one of the prime areas of focus when watching the Giants' defense. Baker was primarily played in off-man or zone coverage against the Buffalo Bills, even when the rest of the defense was playing a tight man coverage.
James Bettcher spoke of Baker needing to challenge opposing receivers more, saying, “I think as the game went on, you saw him probably challenge people more. I think that’s what he does best. He has to just believe in what he does best and go do it.
"At the same time, position coaches in the room, myself as the coordinator, we have to challenge him to go do the things that he does best as well.”
It will be interesting to see if the Giants allow Baker to play press-man against the bigger and explosively athletic Godwin or the mammoth (yet still athletic) Mike Evans, or if they try to protect Baker using softer coverages.
The Giants could decide to try and take away explosive plays at the expense of giving up shorter or intermediate gains through the air.
There is also the curious matter of tight end O.J. Howard. Bruce Arians has never made the tight end position a priority in his offense, but it was argued over the summer that he never had a tight end with Howard's ability.
However, Howard was blanked against Carolina, not seeing a single target all game. The Giants' defense, however, continues to be porous when it comes to covering tight ends.
While they didn't give up many yards or catches to Buffalo's tight ends, that had more to do with Dawson Knox's hands than the Giants' coverage. The team has to be prepared for Howard to be a threat as he is too good a player and too dangerous an athlete to ignore.
The other end of the equation is the pass rush. While he hasn't been sacked nearly as much as DeShaun Watson, the Buccaneers have not protected Winston well thus far this season.
He has been sacked three times in each of this first two games, fumbling twice in week one. If the Giants' secondary can hold their receivers at all in check, there could be opportunities for Bettcher to dial up a pass rush against Winston.
Of course, the familiarity mentioned above cuts both ways. Bettcher coached under Bruce Arians for five years between the Indianapolis Colts and Cardinals as a linebackers' coach and defensive coordinator.
While Bettcher knows Arians' offense and tendencies, Arians knows Bettcher's as well. The potential chess match between the two old friends is going to be fascinating to watch.
Tampa enters this intriguing game as (roughly) touchdown favorites at home, but this game has the potential for fireworks on both sides of the ball. But from the Giants' perspective, all eyes will be on Daniel Jones and if he shows positive signs it will be hard to chalk the game up as a loss no matter what else happens.
