Should New York Giants Trade Up for QB J.J. McCarthy?

Let's look at the pros and cons of doing so.

The 2024 NFL Draft begins tonight, and the New York Giants, who hold the sixth overall pick, are in the thick of the "QB or not QB" rumor mill.  

Speaking of which, the rumor mill struck a chord and began a tune signaling the Giants could be in the mix to trade up with either the New England Patriots for the third overall pick or the Arizona Cardinals for the fourth overall pick. Of course, the target would be obvious: a quarterback. But the question is which one?

North Carolina’s Drake Maye has been widely mentioned recently, but Michigan’s National Championship-winning signal caller, J.J. McCarthy has also been mentioned. 

However, the scouting community seems split on whether McCarthy is worth that high of a pick and if moving up for what is essentially an unproven player at the most important position is worth the risk.

Let’s look at both sides of the coin. 

The Pro

Giants head coach Brian Daboll has a strong history with young, talented signal callers. He spent time in Alabama with Tua Tagovailoa, in New England with future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady, as the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills, where he assisted in the grooming of star Josh Allen, and he helped Daniel Jones have his best season to date in 2022. 

The point is that Daboll knows what it takes to get the best out of his quarterback and appreciates their physical tools. McCarthy fits the mold of a toolsy, athletic, yet raw quarterback. He flashed his clutch ability on third downs during the 2023 season and flashed even more as a passer when given “True Dropback Sets” during the Wolverines' championship run. 

McCarthy has the arm talent to push the ball down the field with velocity to deliver strikes into tight coverage in the middle of the field (MoF). As a plus athlete, McCarthy can extend plays with his legs, navigating inside and outside the pocket. 

Daboll will have the luxury to call designer quarterback runs similar to the ones he dialed up during the Giants’ playoff run with Jones in 2022. There is plenty to like and admire about the physical tools and upside/potential of McCarthy to make moving up to select him worth it. 

 The Cons

Despite McCarthy's potential positives for an NFL offense, there are some concerns with his passing exposure and volume. Michigan's offense was run-heavy, and there are questions as to whether that resulted from a lack of trust in its quarterback or just the head coach's personal preference. 

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. McCarthy was rarely leaned on to shoulder the load and pressure for Michigan’s offense. The lack of volume in “True Drop-back Sets” has hindered his growth with processing speed, anticipation, and ball speed. These things can improve with repetition, but how early and at what cost to his confidence if selected? 

His processing is a tick behind/late. On film, he can be seen staring down reads, waiting for something to become available, instead of reading/surveying the field and getting to his next progression quickly. He must grow in this area to take advantage of the entire field on passing downs. 

Anticipating throwing lanes is adequate but needs time and reps to improve. He isn’t consistent with seeing voids come open in the defensive coverage and ripping it before the receiver comes out of their breaks. Along with staring down reads, this can become a clear issue at the next level, where defenders read routes and the quarterback's eyes, potentially creating more chances at potential turnovers. 

 McCarthy tends to be a fastball pitcher more times than not. He must develop more touch on his passes to improve his efficiency, especially on down-the-field targets outside the numbers. He leaves points and explosive plays on the field due to these issues. 

The margin for error in the NFL is vastly less than in college. You must be able to take advantage of opportunities when they are presented. He cannot assume that he is covered by an elite run game and defense that controls opposing offenses for four quarters. 

Lastly, the Giants’ offensive supporting cast is not equipped to elevate his game early on. Moving up could cost them their second-round pick, which might have been used on a new wide receiver or offensive lineman. So, there are plenty of ramifications to consider regarding this potential trade-up. 

Final Thoughts

McCarthy is a talented player with the upside to love at the quarterback position. If the Giants are comfortable with their roster, go for it. If it were up to me, I’d rather sit still at pick 6 and, if McCarthy is there, use the pick to select him. That way, you have the rest of your 2024 picks to improve the roster around him. 

The Giants cannot set him up for success without talent. If Daniels Jones does not improve his play early in the 2024 season, the fans will be clamoring for their first-round pick to see the field. It's a tough decision with equal parts pros and cons, but it will also be a very telling one depending on how the board falls.  

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