Giants 2021 Unrestricted Free Agent Primer: DT Dalvin Tomlinson
The New York Giants have been knee-deep in evaluating every player on their roster to determine who is part of the team’s future and who will be moving on.
Over the next several days, I will break down every one of the Giants’ unrestricted free agents (UFAs) by revisiting their 2020 seasons, assessing why they should be re-signed.
Then, using OTC's premium stats and advanced valuations tables, I try to arrive at an ideal contract before concluding with a prediction as to whether the player will be a Giant in 2021.
Up next in this series is a look at defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, a homegrown Giants product who arguably is one of the last remaining draft picks of the Jerry Reese era worthy of a second contract.
But can the Giants justify keeping Tomlinson with so many other priorities?
2020 Season In Review
When it comes to Dalvin Tomlinson, his stats don't tell the entire story.
Tomlinson's emergence as a run defender is why the team felt comfortable enough moving on from Damon Harrison back in 2018. Tomlinson excelled in taking on double teams and holding his ground while at the same time mucking up the interior running lanes, which forced opposing running backs to head for the edges where faster linebackers met them in 2020.
Tomlinson's ability to draw double blocks also opened things up for Leonard Williams' big season. Williams himself has credited Tomlinson many times for drawing blockers and pushing the pocket, which opened up opportunities for Williams and other defenders to make plays.
Tomlinson, who plays with a junkyard dog mentality, has especially been productive in the red zone.
The Giants' red-zone defense finished third in the league in touchdowns allowed (50.85%), and a big reason for that was Tomlinson, who put his wrestling background to good use in mucking things up inside.
You want to talk about stats? Start with the fact that Tomlinson has never missed an NFL game--ever. Then there are his sacks--his 3.5 sacks this year, while not eye-popping, matched his career-high set a year prior and are a testament to his fine athleticism.
Tomlinson also recorded eight tackles for a loss and ten quarterback hits, both career highs. Again, that's modest production compared to all the things he does that stats can't measure. But at the end of the day, Tomlinson has been a rock on that Giants defense.
Oct 10, 2019; Foxborough, MA, USA; New York Giants defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson (94) prepares to run onto the field before a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Giants Should Re-Sign Tomlinson
The trio of Tomlinson, Dexter Lawrence II, and Leonard Williams is one of the most underrated groups in the NFL and a big reason why the Giants run defense has ranked in the top half of the league (14th per Football Outsiders). So why fix what isn't broken?
Also, there are the finances. For years, the Giants defensive line has been among the lowest paid group on the Giants, yet again in the last three years, it's been the most productive and consistent unit.
That's currently the situation entering the 2021 off-season--the Giants defensive line is the 31st lowest-paid group per Spotrac. Eventually, it would come time to pay for all that production, and that time is now.
Why the Giants Should Let Tomlinson Walk
The Giants have a history of letting run stuffers walk away. That is because big-bodied space-eating run defenders are typically a lot easier to find in the draft and free agency than two-way run defenders/pass rushers (think Aaron Donald).
If Tomlinson walks, the Giants have two possibilities to replace him. The first is re-signing Austin Johnson, who rotated in there at nose tackle with Tomlinson.
Johnson, who was coached by Giants defensive line coach Sean Spencer at Penn State, would almost certainly be someone the Giants can keep for a fraction of what it would cost to keep Tomlinson.
The other would be B.J. Hill, who was part of that defensive line rotation and played his role (primarily at defensive end) well. For that to happen, though, Hill, who is listed at 6-foot-3, 310 pounds, would have to bulk up to be better able to handle the inside work that Tomlinson handled.
RELATED:
- New York Giants 2020 Position Review: Defensive Line
- Shaping a Competitive New York Giants' 2021 Off-season Salary Cap Plan
Ideal Contract
Spotrac has projected a market value for Tomlinson to be four years, $38.19 million, which comes to about $9.5 million per year. That's a little more than the estimated $8.2 million projected.
So let's meet somewhere in the middle of those two estimates and go with a 4-year, $36 million deal ($9 million APY).
Prediction
After all the Giants draft picks who just weren't good enough to earn a second contract with the team, you hate to think that one as good as Tomlinson, who is worth a second contract, might not get it from this team.
But who knows? Perhaps Leonard Williams, a free agent, gives the Giants a hometown discount (or better yet, gets a new deal done quickly rather than eating up nearly $19 million in cap space).
Tomlinson is going to get paid handsomely for what he brings to a defense. But given the Giants' top priorities--a playmaker and Leonard Williams--they might not have enough money to offer Tomlinson, not with some other depth positions in need of addressing (running back, tight end, etc.).
What's next for the Giants this off-season? Sign up for our FREE newsletter for all the latest, and be sure to follow and like us on Facebook. Submit your questions for our mailbag. And don't forget to check out the daily LockedOn Giants podcast, also available for subscription wherever you find podcasts.
