Week 1 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Finding value is the key to winning fantasy titles and being able to boast to your friends about how you’re better than them at fake football. One of the best, most successful ways to win titles is to find value and opportunity.
Of course, you’re going to plug all of your studs into your lineup and miss no sleep over the decision, but what about some of the weaker spots on your team?
Did you go no running back or wait on a tight end? Do you look at these positions and think your team is going to implode on itself?
Fear not, as this season, I will be going through the best sleepers and lesser-known players that should be in for a solid fantasy outing during each fantasy matchup.
Did you draft running Josh Jacobs - start him! What about tight end Evan Engram - yeah, go ahead and start that stud too.
But in leagues with deeper starting rotations, and as injuries begin to pile up, your decisions will cause you more trepidation.
Here is my Week 1 fantasy sleepers and players who are either under-owned or under-started that may help you win your fantasy matchup.
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. ARI
Typically, Garoppolo isn’t a great fantasy quarterback. His team wants to run the football down their opponents' throats, but two of his best fantasy games came against the Cardinals last season.
In 2019, Garroppolo averaged 370 yards passing and four touchdowns for just under 30 fantasy points per game in 4 points per touchdown formats.
Deebo Samuel and rookie Brandon Aiyuk are trending to play on Sunday, which can only assist Garroppolo. At the same time, I also feel like the Cardinals may be able to move the football against the 49ers a bit, leading to more throwing opportunities for Jimmy handsome.
Another nice nugget of information is that the Cardinals allowed the most YAC last season, so I expect Kyle Shanahan to attempt to get his playmakers in space and enable Garoppolo to cook a bit.
The addition of Isaiah Simmons from Clemson should help the defense. Still, I wouldn’t count on the talented safety/linebacker hybrid to full halt George Kittle and the 49ers passing attack in what should be a higher scoring game.
Gardner Minshew vs. IND
I like Minshew's upside more than Garoppolo because the game script in this particular affair should lead to more passing attempts for Minshew since the Jaguars will more than likely be chasing points.
The issue with Garoppolo is the potential of a blow out where he won’t have to throw the football, but I feel the Cardinals will be able to keep pace.
As for Minshew, the Colts secondary is somewhat suspect, although their pass rush should be solid; this could lead to more rushing attempts.
Like his quarterback predecessor Blake Bortles, Minshew could be in line for garbage time points, which, sadly, are worth the same as regular fantasy points.
I also like Minshew in Jay Gruden’s offense; Gruden has done wonders with Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton. He tends to get the most out of quarterback prospects, which could benefit the young second-year player out of Washington State.
Running Backs
Tarik Cohen @ DET
If you have Cohen on your team in a half-point PPR league, you probably acquired him around the double-digit rounds, maybe slightly before.
David Montgomery, the inefficient starting running back for the Bears, will more than likely not be available for week one; and if he is, he’ll be limited as he heals from his groin injury.
This leaves Cohen and Corderlle Paterson, a converted wide receiver, to handle the bulk of the backfield work. The Lions defense gave up eight receiving touchdowns to the running back position last season, and Cohen averaged about five receptions a game.
I expect that number to increase, especially in the absence of Montgomery. I feel comfortable starting Cohen in my flex, in a three WR league that is PPR.
He could be in for a heavier workload, and he could see the goal line carriers against a defense that has been susceptible like Detroit.
Chris Thompson vs. IND
This coincides with the Minshew pick above, and it only applies to .5 point and full point PPR formats.
The release of Leonard Fournette opens up a lot of opportunities for relatively unknown and young running backs in Jacksonville. I feel the split will be ugly early on with Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson handling early-down work, and Chris Thompson filling in during passing situations.
Well, I feel there may be a lot of those situations in the second half of the game, so I think Thompson, who can be found on some waiver wires, may be in for a heavier workload as the game progresses. I’d rather start Cohen, but if you’re stuck in a pinch in PPR formats, Thompson isn’t a bad option.
Boston Scott @ WAS
Star RB Miles Sanders should be good to go for this matchup, but the Eagles will bring him along slowly due to the injury. The depth behind Sanders isn’t deep at all, it’s relatively shallow, but Scott was a heavily used player down the stretch of the season last year.
Through week 14 into the wild card game, Scott had 26 catches, and 44 carries in that period. He’s mainly a situational third-down back, but he was good in short-yardage situations and helped people win their fantasy leagues last season.
I think he’s in a good spot to perform against a defense with an excellent pass rush; this may cause Carson Wentz to check the ball down, resulting in a lot of PPR opportunities for Scott.
Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder @ BUF
Honestly, can you name any other Jets' pass catcher at the moment other than Chris Herndon? The Jets will attempt to run the football and play slow, but I don’t think it’ll work to the offense's advantage.
I typically don’t target these types of games in fantasy football, but the Jets are an anomaly with their current proven pass-catchers.
Crowder operates out of the slot and will avoid the Tre’Davious White experience, which should also lead Darnold to target Crowder even more. Crowder could be in for double-digit targets and should be started in 3 WR PPR leagues as a flex play.
DeSean Jackson @ WAS
Fellow wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor are dealing with injuries and won’t be available for the matchup, which leaves an already banged-up Eagles squad with Jackson, Greg Ward, and Zach Ertz as true receiving options in 11 personnel.
I think Boston Scott will be utilized in the short passing game and help keep the workload off of an injured Miles Sanders, but Jackson will be a deep threat and all-around receiver for Carson Wentz. He’s a big play waiting to happen, but his opportunity should be increased for this already injured team.
Tight End
Blake Jarwin @ LAR
All I’ve heard this entire offseason was Jarwin hype, and it makes a lot of sense. Dak Prescott has a propensity to target the tight end position, and Jarwin, as the number two tight end in Dallas last season, had an aDot (average depth of target) over 10 yards.
The implied total for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football is 27 points, with the second-highest over/under behind Thursday Night Football’s Chiefs vs. Texans.
Jalen Ramsey will have the honor of guarding either Michael Gallup or Amari Cooper, and I feel Jarwin should be in for at around six targets with red-zone work over the middle. I would get ahead of your league now and pick Jarwin up off the waiver wire.
Jack Doyle @ JAC
I love so many late-round tight ends in this draft: Hayden Hurst, Blake Jarwin, I also like Eric Ebron, but for Week 1, especially in PPR leagues, I’m going with Jack Doyle of the Indianapolis Colts.
Why? Philip Rivers loves to target the tight end position.
Look, I have questions about the older quarterback's arm strength.
Rivers should be a check-down machine just like he was last year with the Chargers; this will only benefit Doyle, who is going dirt cheap in most fantasy leagues.
I saw this stat on PFF: Since 2007, Rivers targets the tight end position an average of 114 times for 82 catches, with 986 yards and nine touchdowns. Especially now, the position coincides with the current skill set of Rivers.
My one concern with Doyle is that the Colts take a considerable lead and don't have to throw the football because the Jaguars are being blown out, which would benefit Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack. I like this call, but I’d also roll the dice on another mostly unowned tight end…
Chris Herndon @ BUF
Look, Herndon missed some time in camp, but returned to catch passes from Darnold; that’s so much more than the majority of the Jets’ pass-catchers can say at the moment.
Almost everyone, excluding WR Jamison Crowder, has been injured through camp. Herndon should be the number 2 target behind Crowder in a game against the Bills where many short aDot passes should be attempted.
I expect Herndon, who was supposed to break-out last year, only to suffer an injury, is being overlooked and could be a hot waiver wire addition after week one.
