Why the Giants Will Beat the Vikings, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The stars seem to be aligning for the New York Giants healthwise, but they still have to go out and execute against a very good Vikings team in the NFC Wild Card round.

As far as New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll is concerned, the NFL playoffs are just another week where, if his team sticks to the processes he's put in place since Day 1, the Giants will find success.

“I think it's really what you make out of it,” Daboll said Monday of the postseason experience. “The experience probably is overrated, to be honest with you. It's how you prepare, practice, and ultimately how you play the game and coach it on whenever it is.”

Among the Giants' goals, this week has been cleaning up the issues that contributed to their loss in the first meeting--the turnovers, the dropped passes, the missed blocks, and the failure to rattle Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to the point where he made mistakes the Giants could cash in on.

"I think everyone understands where we are now. We’re in the playoffs," said quarterback Daniel Jones. "We’re past the regular season. The games mean more from the sense that if you lose, you go home. So, people understand that.

"But the only way we’re going to play as well as we want to play is to prepare how we have all year, to trust our process, and stick to that. So, that’s largely been the conversation amongst the guys."

Can the Giants, who are a slight underdog in this one, pull off the upset in what's sure to be a very loud environment?

Let's hash out the scenarios.

 Why the Giants Will Win

Some might mistake the Giants' confidence as being cocky, but several things are driving the confidence that's come out of their East Rutherford locker room.

For starters, the Giants are healthy--no one was given an injury designation ahead of this game, which means that, unlike last time, the Giants are going to have safety Xavier McKinney and cornerback Adoree' Jackson back in the lineup, as well as having outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari (who left the firs meeting halfway through with an ankle injury) ready for full-game duty.

That's big on so many levels because the Giants' defense had no answers last time for tight end T.J. Hockenson or receiver Justin Jefferson, both of whom went over 100 yards receiving. Jefferson, in particular, was instrumental in the Vikings game-winning drive when he caught a 17-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to help set up the game-winning 61-yard field goal.

Now with a healthy slate of options, Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale doesn't have to rely on a wing and a prayer in slowing down the Vikings' very good offense.

"It helps, and that’s why they were starters at the beginning of the season," Martindale said Thursday when asked about having McKinney and Jackson back, adding that the anticipated return of those two players changes how he can call plays.

Martindale wouldn't say how Jackson and McKinney's return will change the playcalling. One possibility is that he'll be able to blitz Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins a bit more often than he did in the first meeting if the two defensive backs can do their part to hold their coverage.

In the first game, Cousins was under pressure on 34.6 percent of his dropbacks despite being blitzed 51.9 percent of the time. Because of the coverage issues combined with the pass rush not getting home, Cousins had a relatively clean game in that he didn't throw any interceptions. But noteworthy is that Cousins has completed just 51.5 percent of his pass attempts when under pressure and has tossed four interceptions.

For the Giants, getting home with the pressure and forcing Cousins into making a few errant throws will ensure they live to see another round in the playoffs. 

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Why the Giants Will Lose

The main concern is the anticipated Adoree Jackson-Justin Jefferson matchup. Jackson didn't get an injury designation, so the assumption is he's going to play his first live snaps since Week 11, when he was injured returning a punt.

Jackson, remember, didn't go full bore in practice until Friday of this past week. He's been ramping up his wind after being sidelined for almost two months. Despite that, he's not expected to be put on a pitch count, not with the Giants' survival on the line.

That's just fine with Jackson, who said he's been antsy to return to the field.

"I've been antsy since the Detroit game – since I went out and wanted to go back in, but knew I couldn't," Jackson said this week. "The antsy-ness, I don't think it ever goes away. Even if somebody retired from playing ball, whatever it may be, they're always going to have the urge to go out there. I feel like I'm always going to be antsy, but being smart with it, not wanting to not just hurt myself, but hurt my team in any situation."

"(Jefferson is) a good player, a great player," Jackson said. "I think for us, we just try to control what we can control. It's about your alignment, your technique, doing your job. And you know the other guys will do a good job next to you. It's a collective, a scheme to handling Jefferson. He's a great player."

If Jackson and the Giants don't find a way to slow him down, New York could be looking at a long and disappointing afternoon.

Prediction

The Giants and Vikings seem to specialize in one-score games this year, with Minnesota holding an 11-0 record in such games and the Giants 8-4. This week's game doesn't figure to be any different and will come down to the bitter end, just as the first game did. But this time, look for the fully staffed Giants to emerge victorious, setting themselves up for another crack at the Eagles in Philadelphia next week. 

Giants 24, Vikings 21

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