2022 NFL Draft: 5 Mocks, 5 Scenarios For the Jaguars at No. 1
20 days. That is the only thing between the Jacksonville Jaguars, the No. 1 overall pick and the 2022 NFL Draft.
The draft process has felt overwhelmingly long at times and like it has been going at breakneck speeds at other times. But regardless of its pacing toward the finish line, the end is near.
With the Jaguars looking increasingly likely to pick at No. 1 instead of moving down in the draft, we opt to look at the most likely scenarios at No. 1 -- while also including the unlikely outcome of a trade.
So, what could a potential draft haul look like for the Jaguars with five different scenarios? With no two draft hauls looking the same, we try to break it down below in our latest mock draft exercise.
Note: all picks are made using PFF's mock draft simulator.
Scenario 1
Round 1, No. 1 overall: Michigan EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
From measurables to his production to checking all of the boxes coaches and scouts seem to love off the field, it is hard to not think of Hutchinson as the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. He has been the darling of the draft community and most scouts and coaches when quoted in articles, making it clear the NFL sees him as a safe bet in this class.
Per TruMedia and PFF, the Jaguars defense finished No. 26 in sacks (32.0), No. 13 in pressure percentage (9.6%), No. 22 in quarterback hits (91), and No. 32 in fumbles forced (2.0). Josh Allen (7.5) and Dawuane Smoot (6.0) combined for 13.5 sacks, but no other Jaguars' defender had more than 3.0. And in terms of edge rushers, the Jaguars' backups (K'Lavon Chaisson, Jihad Ward, Lerentee McCray, Jordan Smith) combined for just three sacks. Ward and McCray have since become free agents.
Round 2, No. 33 overall: Georgia WR George Pickens
The Jaguars spent big money at wide receiver this free agency period with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, but they still have a massive need at wide receiver. They need a young receiver who can grow and develop with Trevor Lawrence while also providing a downfield deep threat on the outside. While the Jaguars hope they get that in Jones, Pickens is the better bet and has significantly more upside. Pickens has the type of skill set Lawrence thrives with, and he would give them a much-upgraded wide receiver room both in the short- and long-term.
As a sophomore, Pickens tied the team in receiving scores with six while also recording 36 catches for 513 yards (14.3 yards per catch). Pickens was expected to have another massive role in 2021 before an ACL injury in March sidelined him for much of the season, though he did return to play in four games and catch five passes for 107 yards (21.4 yards per catch).
Round 3, No. 65 overall: UT-Chattanooga OG Cole Strange
One of the best small-school prospects in the entire draft, UT-Chattanooga offensive guard Cole Strange is an elite athlete at guard. Strange finished with the best RAS of any guard in the entire class and the best RAS of any guard since 2016. He put up similar numbers to Brandon Brooks in terms of the agility drills, finishing behind only Johnson in that regard while having the best broad jump of any guard.
Round 3, No. 70 overall: Cincinnati LB Darrian Beavers
More of a thumper linebacker than a rangy sideline-to-sideline force, Darrian Beavers would give the Jaguars a physical run-stuffer in the middle of the defense next to Foyesade Oluokun. The Jaguars' scheme has an emphasis on speed and explosion, but they also need to ensure they are strong up the middle of the defense and Beavers has the traits general manager Trent Baalke likes in a linebacker.
Scenario 2
Round 1, No. 1 overall: Georgia EDGE Travon Walker
This would be a risky selection due to the fact that Travon Walker is a relatively raw pass-rusher and has limited production beyond just sacks (low pressures and pressure rate throughout his career). Still, he is arguably the best athlete in the draft and if the Jaguars want a power rusher, they may want to go with the longer and more explosive one between Walker and Hutchinson.
In 2020, Walker played in nine games and recorded 1.0 sack, 2.0 tackles for loss, one interception, and one forced fumble. Walker then had a career season in 2021, starting all 15 games as Georgia finished the year as National Champions. During Georgia's title run, Walker recorded 6.0 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss, two pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and a team-high 36 quarterback hurries.
Walker then had arguably the best combine performance of any defensive player in 2021, measuring at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds but still running a 4.51 40-yard dash (98th percentile), a 36-inch vertical jump (80th percentile), 123-inch broad jump (87th percentile), 6.89-second three-cone (93rd percentile), and a 4.32 20-yard shuttle (76th percentile).
Round 2, No. 33 overall: Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore
This was a really tough pick to make. On one hand, the best options on the board value-wise were at edge rusher and safety -- two positions that it is hard seeing the Jaguars invest in after the first round, especially in the event in which they draft Aidan Hutchinson. Skyy Moore is also a smaller receiver and would be joining a Jaguars' roster that is currently filled with receivers below 6-foot-2. Still, the Jaguars need playmakers and instant impacts at No. 33 and Moore accomplishes both.
Moore was an instant impact for Western Michigan's offense after making a switch to wide receiver. He caught 51 passes for 802 yards (15.73 yards per catch) and three touchdowns as a true freshman, earning him First-Team All-MAC as he led all MAC freshmen in most receiving stats. Moore's second season saw him play six games in the pandemic-shortened season, with Moore finishing the season with 25 catches for 388 yards (15.52 yards per catch) and three touchdowns. Finally in 2021, Moore led the Broncos' offense with 94 catches for 1,283 yards (13.6 yards per catch) and 10 touchdowns.
Round 3, No. 65 overall: Georgia LB Quay Walker
A linebacker who very well could hear his name called in round two, Georgia's Quay Walker would give the Jaguars another athletic linebacker next to Oluokun. Walker is quick diagnosing plays downhill, physical against blocks, can match up with running backs and tight ends in coverage, and would give the Jaguars another athletic and productive SEC defender.
Walker started all 16 games for the Bulldogs last season, recording 67 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and three pass breakups, while also recording eight tackles against Alabama in the National Championship Game.
Round 3, No. 70 overall: Kentucky IOL Luke Fortner
An interior line prospect the Jaguars have shown some extensive interest in since the combine, this may be a slight reach for Luke Fortner but would give the Jaguars a potential starter at either guard or center due to his experience at both positions. He fits a zone-based blocking scheme and would add much-needed offensive line depth to the Jaguars' roster following Brandon Linder's retirement.
Scenario 3
Round 1, No. 1 overall: Alabama OL Evan Neal
Evan Neal is a terrific athlete and a truly dominant left tackle at the college level who has played three different positions at high levels. The Jaguars did franchise tag Cam Robinson and have a second-round pick slated to compete at right tackle in 2021 No. 45 overall pick Walker Little. Neal is one of the highest-floor prospects in the class but also has a terrific ceiling while giving the Jaguars flexibility along the offensive line due to his versatility.
Neal's career got off to a quick and successful start at Alabama, starting at left guard for the Crimson Tide in 13 games as a freshman. During that time, Neal helped anchor one of the best Alabama offensive lines in recent memory, being named Freshman All-SEC in the process.
Neal was moved to right tackle as a sophomore, starting 12 games on the edge across from Alex Leatherwood. Alabama went on to win the National Championship behind one of the most productive offenses in school history, with Neal's strong play making a big impact.
Neal was moved a third time in 2021, going from right tackle to left tackle following Leatherwood's departure to the NFL. A consensus All-American and first-team All-SEC member following 15 starts at left tackle as a junior. finishing his career with 40 career starts spread across three positions.
Round 2, No. 33 overall: Penn State EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
One of my favorite edge prospects in the entire 2022 NFL Draft, I wouldn't fault a team for taking Penn State's Arnold Ebiketie as early as the top-20. He would give the Jaguars truly elite value at No. 33 overall and could instantly slot across from Josh Allen to give the Jaguars a pair of explosive, athletic and violent pass-rushers.
A Temple transfer, Ebiketie had the best year of his career in 2021 after recording 62 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. There is some projection involved, but he is an elite athlete who has a wide array of pass-rush moves.
Round 3, No. 65 overall: South Alabama WR Jalen Tolbert
The 2021 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year, Jalen Tolbert is an impressive small-school prospect who could give the Jaguars an inside/out receiver with impressive length and catch radius. The Jaguars need more downfield playmakers at wide receiver and Tolbert would give them that, even if he is just a shade above 6-foot-1.
Round 3, No. 70 overall: Georgia LB Channing Tindall
Another impressive Georgia linebacker, Channing Tindall played in 15 games last season and recorded 67 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. Tindall is raw in most aspects of playing linebacker but he has unmatched speed, explosion and range and would give the Jaguars one of the league's most athletic linebacker duos.
Scenario 4
Round 1, No. 1 overall: NC State OL Ikem Ekwonu
I think if the Jaguars were to draft an offensive lineman at No. 1 overall, this is who they would pick. Ikem Ekwonu has the movement skills and elite run blocking to immediately change the complexion of any team's zone-based running game and he would be an ideal fit on Doug Pederson's offensive line. He would slot into left guard as a rookie in this scenario too, a better spot for him than right tackle and potentially even left tackle.
After a successful freshman season, Ekwonu split time at left tackle and left guard in 2020. He started four games at guard and six at tackle, displaying versatility that could help him become a top pick once April rolls around. Thanks to a solid sophomore season, Ekwonu was named second-team All ACC honors from the Associated Press at both guard and tackle.
Round 2, No. 33 overall: Oklahoma EDGE Nik Bonitto
There is some questionable value at this pick since Oklahoma's Nik Bonitto is likely a designated pass-rusher at the next level, but few pass-rushers were as productive in college as he has been. He gets pressure at an otherworldly rate, has a terrific get-off and has the bend to win the edge against offensive tackles. He may not ever be an average run-defender, but he could be a Yannick Ngakoue-type player.
Round 3, No. 65 overall: Boise State WR Khalil Shakir
A receiver whose pro day the Jaguars sent wide receivers coach Chris Jackson to watch, Boise State's Khalil Shakir is a smart and explosive wideout who can win at all levels of the field and line up in every wide receiver spot. Just a shade under 6-foot-0, Shakir weighed 196 pounds at the combine and ran a 4.43 40-yard dash with a 34.5-inch vertical, 124-inch broad jump, 7.28-second three-cone, and 4.21-second short shuttle.
Shakir finished his Boise State career with 77 catches for 1,117 yards (14.5 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns in 2021, giving him 208 catches for 2,878 yards (13.8 yards per catch) and 20 touchdowns over four seasons.
Round 3, No. 70 overall: Montana LB Troy Andersen
A small-school surprise standout, the former All-Conference linebacker and quarterback took the combine by storm this week. He is more of a Day 3 project pick who you hope can make an early impact on special teams as he gets more mental and physical reps at linebacker, but his elite RAS makes him a player worth rolling the dice on for a team who has two third-round picks. He has good size and also posted the best 40-yard dash and fifth-best broad jump of all linebackers.
Scenario 5
Trade: Jaguars trade No. 1 to New York Giants for No. 5, No. 67, No. 112, and a 2023 fifth-rounder.
Round 1, No. 5 overall: Alabama OL Evan Neal
In this scenario, the Jaguars are able to land more picks from the Giants but ultimately miss out on Hutchinson (No. 1), Walker (No. 2), Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 3), and Ekwonu (No. 4). This is an unlikely scenario, but getting maybe the draft's best prospect at No. 5 overall while also picking up a Day 2 pick and a future fifth-rounder is a win the Jaguars could get excited about.
Round 2, No. 33 overall: USC EDGE Drake Jackson
One of the draft's most impressive pass-rushers, Drake Jackson would help the Jaguars offset losing out on the top three edge rushers in Hutchinson, Walker and Thibodeaux. He has changed his body quite a bit since he first arrived to USC's campus but the 2021 season showed he is an athletic threat off the edge for any defense.
Round 3, No. 65 overall: Cincinnati WR Alec Pierce
Bearcats wide receiver Alec Pierce is a player who would check off lot of boxes for the Jaguars. He would give them another receiver who can play both inside and out, something the staff clearly covets, while also giving them a tall, long and big-framed receiver who can line up on the outside and free up space downfield.
Pierce then played in just six games in 2020 due to separate knee and shoulder injuries. In the shortened season, he caught 17 passes for 315 yards (18.5 yards per catch) and three touchdowns. In 2021, Pierce bounced back with 14 starts and was named All-AAC Second-Team after 52 catches for 884 yards (17.0 yards per catch) and eight touchdowns.
Round 3, No. 67 overall: Penn State LB Brandon Smith
It was always clear on tape that Brandon Smith was an athletic force, and nothing he did at the combine disputed this. He came in at prototype linebacker size and with nearly 35-inch arms, looking the part in every way. He also finished with the eighth-best vertical, sixth-best broad jump and the fifth-best 40-yard dash. There are still questions to answer in regards to Smith's projection, but it is clear he is a high-level NFL athlete in waiting and would give the Jaguars some much-needed space in the middle of the defense.
Round 3, No. 70 overall: UCLA TE Greg Dulcich
Considered by many to be the top tight end in the class, UCLA's Greg Dulcich is a move tight end who has better blocking ability than most Y's. He won't be the biggest tight end (6-foot-4, 243 pounds), but where he wins is with speed, explosiveness and quickness as a pass-catcher, and he posted very good numbers in that regard with a 34-inch vertical jump, a 10'2" broad jump, a 7.05 three-cone, and a 4.7 40-yard dash (with a 1.64 10-yard split). Dulcich won't be the most physically imposing tight end, but he has the athleticism to win before and after the catch and could give the Jaguars' tight end room a much-needed jolt of speed.
