Did the Jaguars Make the Right Choice in Prioritizing Cam Robinson Over DJ Chark?
The Jacksonville Jaguars have not had many key internal free agents hit the open market in recent years. But 2022 has been different, with the Jaguars facing two important drafted-and-developed players set to become free agents in wide receiver DJ Chark and left tackle Cam Robinson.
In most cases of departures of big-name players, the Jaguars have outright released players before their deals were up or traded them while they were still under contract. Robinson was franchise tagged last season, meaning the only significant player to become a free agent was Keelan Cole.
But entering this month, the Jaguars had two significant investments set to no longer be under their watch. Both have been long-time starters, drafted by the Jaguars in recent second rounds and developed by the organization.
For a Jaguars team that has failed to consistently keep talented players on second contracts, keeping either Robinson or Chark would represent a shift in priorities for a franchise that wants to start to keep their own.
And as of this Tuesday, the Jaguars have made their decision, franchise tagging Robinson for the second year in a row.
Robinson, a second-round pick in 2017, has started 64 games at left tackle since being drafted and has been highly regarded throughout the organization over the last several years. He first earned the franchise tag in 2021 as the Jaguars opted to not let him become a free agent following his rookie deal.
But many didn't expect the Jaguars to tag Robinson a second time. Both due to drafting Walker Little at No. 45 last April and the number of options at offensive tackle in the 2022 NFL Draft, Robinson was seen as a likely free agent to most.
But the Jaguars made their stance clear. When it came to prioritizing their two big free agents, general manager Trent Baalke and head coach Doug Pederson made it clear that Robinson took precedence over Chark, the 2018 second-rounder who had a Pro Bowl 1,000-yard season in 2019.
The Jaguars better be right. If they aren't, it will show the first serious false step in what the team hopes will be a successful leadership group.
Keeping Robinson over Chark is ultimately the first major decision Baalke and Pederson have made together, and it could go on to be a defining decision in the pair's tenure. As such, they will have to hope they went down the right path.
"Listen, I want to bring all our guys back quite honestly. Especially those two guys," Pederson said on 1010XL last week in reference to Chark and Robinson.
"We just talked about adding value and these two guys could add value, they could add depth to our roster and they are two great players. But, you know, we'll see. We got a couple weeks coming up here in free agency, we would love to have them both back."
But faced with the ability to guarantee the return of one of the two players, the Jaguars decided on Robinson as their franchise player. That still gives them until March 16 to sign Chark to a long-term deal, but it greatly increases the chances of him becoming a free agent and ultimately signing elsewhere.
By contrast, Robinson will be on a one-year, $16.66 contract. According to OverTheCap, 10 left tackles have a larger cap number in 2022 than Robinson. Essentially, Robinson will be the 11th highest-paid left tackle in 2022 as long as Terron Armstead signs a deal for a larger cap hit than Robinson's figure.
For a team flush with cap space like the Jaguars, that isn't some kind of major investment that would prevent any other moves in the future. The Jaguars also have until July 15 to sign Robinson to a long-term deal, which could decrease his 2022 cap hit. The decision to tag Robinson isn't one that will have many financial ramifications in the long run.
But the decision to tag Robinson does mean Chark will now almost certainly be a free agent. With a wide receiver market that has been ravaged by franchise tags and now will not have Davante Adams, Mike Williams or Chris Godwin, Chark figures to be one of the best players available. Chances are he is going to command a lucrative market outside of Jacksonville, and the odds of him being a Jaguar in 2022 seems slim at best.
The Jaguars could have prevented losing their best receiver and most explosive skill player by tagging him, though the $18.419 million price tag on a received franchise tag would have been more expensive than Robinson's tag.
But at tackle, the Jaguars had solid backup plans in Little, free agency, Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu at No. 1 overall, or a tackle at No. 33. Even with Robinson as a free agent, it is hard to make an argument tackle would have been a bigger need than wide receiver. Especially since there are more options to replace Robinson than to replace Chark.
Tagging Robinson does do some things for the Jaguars that tagging Chark wouldn't have. It ensures their offseason plan at left tackle doesn't have to rely on bringing in a massive free agent like Armstead or depending on Little to develop after just three starts.
It also gives the Jaguars much more flexibility at No. 1 overall. After an offseason where most assumed the Jaguars would go offensive line at No. 1 overall, the Jaguars now have much more of a reason to target an edge rusher at No. 1. This is a better allocation of resources from a value standpoint, something that tagging Chark wouldn't have allowed.
But the Jaguars will have to hope that they don't regret not keeping Chark. They need playmakers more than anything else; more touchdowns, more explosive plays, more moments where the skill players don't have to be elevated by scheme or the quarterback.
There aren't many better options than Chark in free agency. There aren't any better options than him currently on the roster. But the Jaguars have still prioritized their needs elsewhere. For Baalke and Pederson's first major decision together, they will have to be right.
