Friday Night Logue: Jaguars Defense is Fun Again
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranked dead last in expected points added per play allowed before its week 7 bye. Since then, it ranks eighth, and that includes Seattle’s 31-point outburst on Halloween.
In the past two weeks (both games against AFC rivals with top-10 offenses, mind you) the Jaguars have allowed -0.139 EPA per play and 4.69 yards per play -- both rates would rank second-best in the league this season.
Defensive coordinator Joe Cullen changed just one small detail: the alignment of the strong safety. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Jaguars played with one deep safety on 53% of snaps before the bye and 26% after the bye. That’s the difference between the seventh-highest and sixth-lowest rates in the league, respectively.
With the strong safety playing deep more often, Jacksonville was able to halt Buffalo’s passing attack with a bevy of Cover 2 and constant pressure. But playing that safety deep meant losing a gap in the run game, and while the Jaguars easily managed against the Bills’ feeble run game, they had a tough test in week 10 against Jonathan Taylor and the Colts.
Taylor showed that he’s a different beast on Sunday’s very first play from scrimmage. There’s a running lane the size of a school bus at the point of handoff, but instead of hitting the gas, Taylor leans towards the opening ever so slightly to make Myles Jack step in that direction. After giving his left tackle more time and a better angle to block Jack, Taylor simply evaporates the pursuit angles of both safeties.
This is what setting up your blocks looks like, and it happens to be coupled with some of the most explosive legs in the league.
The Colts ran another zone run play on its next possession, and this time Taylor immediately went pedal to the medal. Zach Pascal’s motion made Damien Wilson over pursue and by the time Josh Allen got to the hole Taylor was long gone.
On both plays, the backside defensive tackle got double-teamed and Taylor was able to take advantage of the smallest missteps by the linebackers. But those were the only such instances all day, as Taylor gained just 62 yards on his other 19 carries with none going for more than eight.
There was no additional adjustment by Cullen or dominant individual performance -- the Jaguars defensive line just came to play. From DaVon Hamilton blowing up the backfield, to Malcolm Brown splitting double teams, to Adam Gotsis penetrating gaps, to Josh Allen racking up tackles for loss, Jacksonville’s interior defense was borderline impenetrable for much of the day.
With nowhere to go, Taylor broke zero tackles and recorded his lowest average yards after contact (1.5) of the past two months. His two big runs displayed incredible traits, but they were routinely neutralized by Jacksonville’s front.
The success of the past two weeks hasn’t been a result of timely penalties or lucky bounces or poor weather. The Jaguars defense is playing legitimately good football (which seemed impossible after the past couple of years, let alone the beginning of this season), and the defensive line is leading the charge. The hiring of Joe Cullen looks better and better every passing week.
Other Thoughts
- While its defense has quietly played great since its bye, Jaguars discourse has centered around an offense that’s scored three touchdowns in the same number of games. I think the biggest problem is undoubtedly the lack of separation and general execution by receivers downfield, but if anyone is to shoulder the blame, it’s the front office for failing to surround its franchise quarterback with adequate pass-catchers. Don’t blame the beer at the party for tasting bad, blame the person who brought it for not getting better ones.
- Raheem Mostert’s knee injury earlier this season was a kind of a big deal (San Diego, San Francisco, close enough), as his perimeter speed plays a large part in Shanahan toying with opposing linebackers and the Niners offense in general. Rookie Elijah Mitchell has been able to step into Mostert’s role nicely for San Francisco, but if he can’t play due to his recent finger surgery then Damien Wilson and Myles Jack should have an easier time on Sunday. Mitchell is a game time decision and an important name to watch leading up to kickoff.
- A bet I like for Sunday: George Kittle over 62.5 receiving yards (per DraftKings). The last time Jacksonville faced an actual receiving threat at tight end was against Miami when Mike Gesicki went off for 115 yards and eight catches on nine targets. Damien Wilson and Rudy Ford are still starting, so I still have little faith in the Jaguars to be able to cover over the middle of the field against one of the league’s best tight ends and offensive schemers.
