Friday Night Logue: Previewing Geno Smith and Seattle’s Offense
The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to travel to Seattle this week following a 1-5 start to the season and its Week 7 bye. The Seahawks are typically a tough opponent, especially at Lumen Field, but star quarterback Russell Wilson’s finger injury in Week 5 has forced eight-year veteran Geno Smith into action.
Smith has played about as well as anyone would expect -- he’s completed 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.1 yards with a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio. On the surface, Smith has simply been a viable backup who’s done enough to keep his team in close games, but when looking at his splits under pressure, it’s a true case of Jekyll and Hyde.
Statistically speaking, Smith has performed like one of the best quarterbacks in the league when kept clean but has been dreadful when under pressure.
Smith has been pressured at the third-highest rate (40.5%) among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in large part because he ranks fourth-highest in average time to throw (2.81 seconds) per Pro Football Focus. Like his teammate Wilson, Smith tends to hold onto the ball for too long in the hope that a receiver can break open or an open scramble lane will emerge as opposed to throwing the ball away and avoiding negative plays.
When his first read is open, Smith can deliver the ball on time and on target. He’s shown the ability to consistently throw in rhythm following the last step of his drop, especially on short out-breaking routes near the sideline.
On this play against Pittsburgh in his first start of the season, Smith displayed the same fluidity on a play action pass from under center. He drives the ball into a perfect position to allow his receiver to make a play before the free safety arrives.
Seattle runs a similar play action concept on the very next play with Tyler Lockett running deep to occupy the safety as D.K. Metcalf runs a dig. Metcalf is open for the second play in a row, but Smith looks to Lockett first and is sacked before he moves to his second read. This sack certainly isn’t entirely on the quarterback, but Smith could’ve fired another ball to Metcalf after seeing the depth of the safety instead of staring down Lockett the whole way.
On this third down play against the Saints last week, Smith looks towards Metcalf running an out route from the slot. The linebacker in coverage has to sprint all the way from the left B gap to catch up to Metcalf, but Smith doesn’t feel comfortable with the amount of separation and quickly looks to his checkdown. With that option unavailable, Smith is forced out of the collapsing pocket and runs to the opposite side of the field of his receivers before throwing the ball away.
Neither of these two missed opportunities to Metcalf are easy plays to make, but it shows that the Seahawks offense no longer feels inevitable without no. 3 under center. Wilson can turn nothing into something on any given play and sacrifices some sacks with that style of play, but Smith invites similar amounts of pressure without the same explosive gains.
Even when Smith gets the ball off to his intended receiver as he evades pressure, the end results remain less fruitful. Here he does a nice job of finding Lockett open after being forced to vacate the pocket but throws an inaccurate pass on the run.
Lockett is open again later in the same game, but again Smith can’t put the ball in the right place with incoming pressure.
Smith’s first two starts of the season were against tough opponents in the Steelers and the Saints, arguably two of the best defenses in the league each armed with dominant pass rushing units. The Jaguars defense is on the other side of the spectrum, as it ranks just 24th in pressure rate and dead last in sacks this year.
Defensive coordinator Joe Cullen has shied away from aggressive blitzes in recent games after poor results to start the season, but he may want to consider sending extra rushers this week to ensure that Smith doesn’t have enough time in the pocket to be comfortable and target Metcalf and Lockett downfield against Jacksonville’s porous secondary. The Jaguars pass rush will have a major implication on the outcome of this week’s game.
Other Thoughts
- Based on projected win totals, Jacksonville was set to face the second-easiest schedule in the league before its week 7 bye but the 19th-easiest after the bye.
- The Jaguars have actually faced the 24th-easiest schedule of opponents thus far (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and are projected to face the 20th-easiest schedule for the remainder of the season.
- Philadelphia is the only team in the league that’s allowed a higher completion percentage and yards per attempt than Jacksonville on passes less than 20 yards downfield and between the numbers according to Sports Info Solutions. MIKE linebacker should be much higher on everyone’s list of 2022 team needs, especially considering Damien Wilson’s contract expires following this season.
- The Jaguar Report podcast made its much-anticipated return this week. You can check it out here.
