Jaguars DVOA, EPA Update: Where Do Lawrence and the Team Rank After Week 4?
Each week throughout the rest of the 2022 season, we will keep a running track on how the Jacksonville Jaguars stack up in some of the most pivotal and stable advanced team metrics, along with how Trevor Lawrence ranks among all qualifying passers.
For reference on last week's numbers, here is where the Jaguars and Lawrence ranked after Week 3.
So, where do the Jaguars land after their 29-21 turnover-filled loss to the Eagles in Week 4? We break it down below.
Overall
In terms of overall ranking, the Jaguars are the No. 4 team in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. They were No. 2 last week, but now the Eagles are at No. 2.
The Jaguars now have the No. 12 offense (down from No. 5), No. 6 defense (down from No. 4) and No. 16 special teams (up from No. 17).
Offense
Offense
All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com
DVOA: No. 12
EPA/Play: No. 10
Success rate: No. 12
Dropback EPA: No. 7
Dropback success rate: No. 3
Rushing EPA: No. 24
Rushing success rate: No. 27
The Jaguars didn't take a big step back in terms of success rate, but it is clear the impact their five turnovers had on their overall efficiency metrics. This should balance out as the sample size increases, though the Jaguars should have potential concerns with their running game continuing the lag behind.
“Well, you would hope that if we were a little more efficient running the football, just help him get the offense going a little bit as we struggled to move the ball in the middle part of the game," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday. "That helps the quarterback kind of settle in, getting him out of the pocket a couple of times by design was good for him."
Defense
All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com
DVOA: No. 6
EPA/Play: No. 4
Success rate: No. 3
Dropback EPA: No. 4
Dropback success rate: No. 4
Rushing EPA: No. 16
Rushing success rate: No. 8
Despite allowing 29 points to the Eagles, the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. Their inability to stop the Eagles on the ground and their franchise-record four rushing touchdowns allowed did drop their rushing EPA all the way down from No. 2 to No. 16, though.
“I mean, this is the most rushing yards we gave up all year. Some of it was due to the quarterback, most of it was due to the running backs," Devin Lloyd said on Monday. "I would say we could’ve executed a little bit better in the front seven, we could’ve done better.”
"Yeah, I would say the biggest thing was the fact that Jalen (Eagles QB Jalen Hurts) was such a threat running the ball, that now we had to account for him. There was an extra guy to account for him pretty much for every play and every defensive snap. That was kind of the biggest adjustment.”
Trevor Lawrence
DYAR: No. 11
DVOA: No. 11
QBR: No. 11
Effective yards: No. 10
Completion %: No. 13
TD%: No. 6
INT%: T-No. 8
Y/A: No. 18
AY/A: No. 12
NY/A: No. 14
ANY/A: No. 11
Sack%: T-No. 9
EPA/play: No. 7
CPOE: No. 13
Success rate: No. 3
Welp. Trevor Lawrence's numbers took a complete dive across the board after the worst game of his career, a game where he was last among all passers this week in EPA/Play and CPOE. When you turn it over five times in a game that makes up 25% of the sample size, the results are going to look like this. Lawrence will need to build his numbers back up in the coming weeks to recover from how bad this week was.
