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Bettors Love Packers as 3.5-Point Favorites Over Saints

Here's a look at Packers-Saints, the Super Bowl and some player props ahead of the Week 1 showdown.
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 3.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s season-opening game at the New Orleans Saints.

Actually, because of the wrath of Hurricane Ida, the game won’t be played in New Orleans. Rather, it’s in Jacksonville, Fla. The move was a big deal in the gambling world.

New Orleans was a 2-point favorite in mid-May, when FanDuel released its initial odds and Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay was in doubt, and eventually moved to Saints by 3. When Rodgers decided to come back just before the start of training camp, the line shifted and Green Bay became a 3-point favorite. When it was announced the game would be shifted to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, all bets were voided.

The stereotypical homefield advantage is three points. So, why has the line moved only a half-point from where it was before Ida? Actually, the line started at five upon the game being relocated – a two-point swing – but sharp money has brought the line back down.

Regardless, the public is backing the Packers. As of midday Friday, the Packers have captured 78 percent of the money on the moneyline and 91 percent of the money on the spread. Three-fourths of bettors are taking the over on the 49.5-point total.

Packers-Saints is second on FanDuel’s board for highest-scoring game of Sunday. Cleveland-Kansas City is the top choice at +650. Green Bay-New Orleans is +1000. The teams combined for 67 points in Week 3 of last season, though that was with Drew Brees at quarterback for New Orleans.

In the prop bets at FanDuel, Rodgers’ passing total is 278.5 yards, Aaron Jones’ rushing total is 64.5 yards and Davante Adams’ receiving total is 87.5 yards. Adams, who led the NFL in touchdown receptions last season, is -155 to score a touchdown. Robert Tonyan, who tied Travis Kelce for the tight end lead in touchdowns last season, is +175.

For first touchdown of the game, Saints running back Alvin Kamara is +500, Jones is +550 and Adams is +600.

FanDuel’s Super Bowl market is largely unchanged since Rodgers decided to return to Green Bay for the 2021 season. The Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites at +500, followed by the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +550, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers at +1200, and Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers at +1500.

Green Bay’s over/under win total is 10.5; 83 percent of bettors have taken the over. The Packers at -165 are the overwhelming favorites to win the NFC North, well ahead of Minnesota (+280), Chicago (+550) and Detroit (+2100).

The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP at +500. The Bucs’ Tom Brady, fresh off a come-from-behind-win over Dallas on Thursday, is +850. Rodgers, the reigning MVP, is +1000, Buffalo’s Josh Allen is +1100 and Dallas’ Dak Prescott is +1500.

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Some other noteworthy player props at FanDuel:

- Rodgers is fourth on the board at +850 to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, which he did last season.

- Rodgers is eighth on the board at +1600 to lead the NFL in passing yards, something he’s never accomplished.

- Adams is third on the board at +600 to lead the NFL in receptions. On a per-game basis, he was No. 1 last year.

- Adams is the favorite at +800 to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, which he did last season.

- Adams is +1200 to lead the NFL in receiving yards. On a per-game basis, he was No. 1 last season.

- Jones is ninth on the board at +1800 to lead the NFL in rushing yards.

- Jones is eighth on the board at +1600 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, which he did in 2019.

- Za’Darius Smith is +2000 to lead the NFL in sacks, a distant 12th on that list. He has 26 sacks the past two seasons but is questionable for Sunday.

- Rodgers’ over/under passing total is 4,550.5 yards and 35.5 touchdowns. More than 80 percent of bettors have taken the over on the touchdowns.

- Adams’ over/under receiving total is 1,300.5 yards and 11.5 touchdowns.

- Jones’ over/under is 9.5 rushing touchdowns and 12.5 total touchdowns.