Final Countdown: Packers, Eagles and Supercharged Offense
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay Packers coach was a rousing success. In 2018 under Mike McCarthy and Joe Philbin, they won six games. In 2019 under LaFleur, they won 13 games and reached the NFC Championship Game.
Oddly enough, though, the success had nothing to do with one of the primary reasons for which LaFleur was hired. LaFleur was hired because of his offensive acumen and his history with quarterbacks. However, the Packers were No. 15 in the NFL with 376 points last season. That’s exactly as many points as the Packers scored in 2018. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating actually got worse.
What’s happened this season is unthinkable. The Packers are 8-3 in large part because of their offense. Green Bay enters Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles with a top-ranked 349 points. If they hit their 31.7-point average, the Packers will have surpassed last year’s point total with four games to play. And they’ve done it, lest anyone forget, without a marquee addition.
In other words, if the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, this year’s offensive performance is insane because they’ve done it with a similar group of players as last season.
Here are five reasons for Green Bay’s improvement.
First down: Green Bay was No. 24 with 5.2 yards per first-down snap last season. This year, it’s No. 10 with a 5.9-yard average.
Third down: What happens when you struggle on first down? You get harder-to-navigate third downs. Last year, the Packers were 23rd with a third-down conversion rate of 35.96 percent. This year, they’re fourth at 48.46 percent. Why? They’ve gone from an average of 7.9 yards to gain on third down – the third-longest in the NFL – to a middle-of-the-pack 6.8. On those move-the-chains plays, Rodgers’ passer rating has soared from 87.5 to 114.7.
Play-action: Green Bay’s running game is largely unchanged in terms of yards per carry. Nonetheless, the play-action game has soared. Rodgers leads the NFL with a 135.9 passer rating and 15 touchdowns on play-action. Last year, he was 30th with a 91.3 rating and threw just three touchdowns.
Playing fast: Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who matched wits with Rodgers while he was the coach in Detroit, sees a quarterback in control of the offense. Last year, according to Pro Football focus, 35 quarterbacks dropped back to pass at least 200 times. Rodgers was 31st with an average time to throw of 2.74 seconds. This year, he’s 14th with an average time to throw of 2.50 seconds. Last year, as was the case in the past, Rodgers at times got greedy. This year, Rodgers is extending plays with a purpose. His passer rating on those plays 2.5 seconds or longer is up 20 points, according to PFF.
To be sure, the faster rhythm isn’t just a quarterback thing. It’s easier to throw the ball faster if there’s a receiver open faster. But that number does show just how comfortable Rodgers has become in Year 2 under LaFleur. It’s what Rodgers called a “beautiful trust” with LaFleur.
“I think he's really taken his game to another level this year,” Schwartz told reporters this week. “He's incredibly efficient. He was always good at making big plays and doing those kinds of things, but he's just so efficient. He doesn't miss a checkdown. He runs a boot and he's taking the positive yards. He still scrambles, he still makes those plays, but I think you're seeing it in his overall play. He still makes his big plays down the field, but I think he's taken his game to another level this year.”
Really, it’s Rodgers: Plenty has been written about Rodgers. He’s playing fast and his accuracy is up. He’s hitting on the deep ball at a vastly improved rate. He’s kept turnovers to a minimum. Added together, he’s playing at an MVP level and maybe he’ll be in Green Bay long beyond his 37th birthday.
“Aaron has totally bought into all the stuff that we’re doing,” offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said. “I think we’ve really made this system for this Green Bay Packer team, and it’s primarily for Aaron – all the pass concepts, the protections, every single thing that we’ve done. We’ve just tried to create this system that he can go out there and be comfortable and be able to execute. That’s what we’re here for, is to put all the guys in the best position, and it starts with the quarterback.”
Eagles’ Offensive Offense
Philadelphia is No. 25 in scoring with just 21.5 points per game. It’s simplistic to point the finger solely at quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles have been slammed by injuries. Tight end Zach Ertz has missed the last five games but will be back in the lineup on Sunday, and the offensive line has lined up with one combination after another after another.
However, of the bottom 10 teams in scoring, seven are using first-contract quarterbacks who are young and/or have underperformed. The exceptions are New England (stopgap Cam Newton replacing Tom Brady), Dallas (Dak Prescott’s on injured reserve) and Philadelphia, where Wentz has been miserable while playing under a $128 million contract extension.
Wentz has thrown a league-worst 15 interceptions. That’s four more than any quarterback in the league. Compare that to Rodgers, who has thrown only 11 interceptions over 43 games over the past three seasons.
The Eagles have scored only nine points in the first half of their last three games.
“I could probably narrow it down to maybe three things that are pretty specific,” Eagles coach Doug Pederson said in a conference call when asked what was wrong with the offense. “One, I would say the amount of injuries that we’ve had in the offensive line. It starts there. Two, the turnovers, just not taking care of the football, lack of discipline by us. And then three, just overall execution. We’ve had some young guys playing at the skill spots, and they’re really learning how to play. I’m encouraged by them, and I know they’ve all got bright futures, and we’re just kind of having some growing pains with them right now.”
On the Other Hand …
For as poorly as Philadelphia’s offense has performed, the defense has been pretty solid and should provide a high-quality test for Rodgers and Co. While the Eagles are No. 16 with 25.2 points allowed per game, some of that scoring volume is because of the turnover-prone offense.
Really, by just about every other measurement, this is a top-10 defense. In fact, that was Rodgers’ description of the unit. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense (338.9 yards allowed per game), fifth in yards per play (5.04), ninth in rushing yards per play (4.09), eighth in passing yards per attempt (6.46), third in sack percentage (10.0) and fifth on third down (36.9 percent). The only shortcomings are the lack of interceptions (31st with an interception rate of 0.84 percent despite the pass rush) and in the red zone (21st with a 63.9 percent touchdown rate).
The front line is a load with Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave in the middle and Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett on the ends. Graham, who will face right tackle Billy Turner, has a team-high seven sacks. Cox, who will mostly face banged-up right guard Lucas Patrick has 5.5 sacks, including one in each of the last four games.
“Defense has been our bright spot the last couple weeks,” Pederson said. “Against Cleveland two weeks ago, it’s a great running game, did a nice job in the run game other than one explosive run. Last week, really came out, played hard, played aggressive, kept Seattle’s offense at bay and shut them down in the red zone a couple times. Kind of kept us in these football games the last couple of weeks. They’ve been playing well, they’ve been playing fast and aggressive and they’ll obviously have their hands full this Sunday.”
The real game within the game will come on third down. Offensively, Green Bay is fourth in the league; defensively, the Eagles are fifth. Green Bay has moved the chains 48.5 percent of the time on third down. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has allowed an incredible 30.0 percent conversion rate the last six games. High-flying Seattle mustered only a 2-of-10 20 percent last week.
“Definitely not underrated by us at all,” Rodgers said. “Fletcher has been around for a long time, been an All-Pro, fantastic player, game-wrecker. Obviously, (cornerback Darius) Slay who I’ve seen a lot of times in Detroit. One of those guys you have so much respect for because not every great corner is going to do star coverage, and for years and years and years he’s traveled both sides of the field or in the slot with the best receiver on the other team. For me, that’s the ultimate respect I can give a guy is when I see a guy doing that because I love that confidence.
“Played against Jim Schwartz a number of times again in Detroit and Philly last year. He’s a really good defensive coordinator. He’s a really smart guy. They have everything up. They stress you with defenses you don’t see a whole lot, they stress you with empty pressures. They’ve turned the ball over on offense a decent amount, which has I think taken more of the headlines, but their defense is really, really solid.”
Stats That Aren’t for Losers
- The Packers are averaging a league-high 31.7 points per game. The Eagles haven’t scored 30 points in a game all season.
- When the weather turns cold, it’s time to run the football. Right? Not so fast. In 22 home starts in December, Rodgers is a ridiculous 19-3 with a passer rating of 111.9.
- According to NextGen Stats, Rodgers has thrown an NFL-leading 14 touchdown passes off play-action this season. He threw a total of 10 the last three seasons.
- Here’s an underrated reason why the Packers go to the NFC Championship Game last season: The defense gave up just 14.2 points per game in December. That was second only to Kansas City’s 10.4 points; the Chiefs, of course, won the Super Bowl. For as good as Rodgers has been this season, the Super Bowl hopes will hinge on that group become a more consistent factor.
- Green Bay is fourth on third down and third in the red zone (74.4 percent touchdowns). It is the only team in the top five in both categories.
- Green Bay has scored 44 touchdowns in its 11 games this season. Compare that to the full-season totals in 2019 (44), 2018 (41) and 2017 (40). It is on a pace of 64 touchdowns, by far its most since scoring 70 touchdowns in 2011.
- Here’s a disparity: The Eagles have given up a league-high 46 sacks. The Packers, on the other hand, have given up only a dozen sacks, tied for second-fewest in the league.
The Last Word Goes to …
Rodgers, on the intelligence of the offense: “You love playing with smart players. You can win with smart players. The best guys we’ve had around here have been the smart players and the guys you can count on to make the right adjustments in certain looks. There was a great play in the game that my buddy Dan-o [Dan Orlovsky] broke down, where I made a subtle adjustment to Robert (Tonyan) and Allen (Lazard) and they executed to perfection. It’s the little things that you hope you don’t have to talk about in the moment. You hope it’s just understood. When those things come to fruition and you see it in real time, it makes you feel really good about as a football team. We have a really good role players. I think a lot of times when the term ‘role player’ is used, it’s often with a slightly negative connotation to where you don’t have the ability to do more than you’re doing. You’re kind of a limited guy. I don’t believe that at all with our guys. I think it’s actually an empowerment when you give somebody a role. It shows a lot of character when somebody buys into that specific role. I’m really proud of those guys who bought into their specific roles and do it unselfishly and for the betterment of the team. When they do that, the entire squad is lifted up. I think that’s when you know that you’ve got a bunch of guys pulling in the same direction.”
Countdown to Kickoff
Five Days: Five Keys to the Game
Four Days: Four Views from Inside the Eagles
Three Days: Three Reasons to Worry
Must Read: Davante Adams' grade-school yearbook photo
Must Read: How many more birthdays for Rodgers?
