Go for First on Fourth-and-1 with 2:32 Left? Analytics Say Yes
GREEN BAY, Wis. – On fourth-and-1 from his own 23 with about 2:30 remaining on Sunday, Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur sent out the punt team.
No-brainer move, right?
Not so fast. In fact, EdjSports.com, the data science and analytics sports firm that owns Football Outsiders, called it the worst decision of the week and the third-worst of the season.
EdjSports weighs critical risk-management decisions with its “game-winning chance” metric. GWC is a team’s win probability at any point in the game. It is generated from EdjFootball’s simulation model, which is rooted in 20-plus years of NFL play-by-play data and popular analytics tools such as DVOA, but customizes it to each team’s strengths and weaknesses. So, going for it on fourth-and-1 against Jacksonville on Sunday might have a different result than going for it on fourth-and-1 against Indianapolis next week.
RELATED: WHAT IS EDJSPORTS.COM? WELL, IT’S BACKED BY ZEUS.
“This is a model we’ve developed for more of a decade,” EdjSports founder Frank Frigo said recently. “It’s been rigorously calibrated and tested against a lot of empirical data. We know it’s very good. At those forks in the road, how much did [a decision] affect win probability?””
On Sunday, a pair of runs to the right side by Aaron Jones set up a third-and-1, in which Jones was stuffed. The Jaguars called their first timeout with 2:32 remaining.
The fork-in-the-road decision for LaFleur: Go for it to get a first down or punt. Had the Packers gotten the first down, the Jaguars still had two timeouts and the 2-minute warning to stop the clock. So, had Green Bay converted the fourth down but failed to move the chains on its next set of downs, it would have punted on the first play after the 2-minute warning.
Of course, had the Packers failed to get the first down, the Jaguars would have been 23 yards from the go-ahead touchdown.
So, given the risk vs. reward, LaFleur made what seemed to be the logical decision and punted.
The data, however, suggests LaFleur made the wrong call. EdjSports.com data analyst Ian O’Connor detailed the logic:
Green Bay came into the game second in passing and ninth in rushing in our Edj Power Indexes (EPIs), while Jacksonville was 31st against the pass and 22nd against the run. This is a huge advantage for the Packers offense. Defensively, Green Bay was 22nd against the pass and 20th against the run, while Jacksonville was 30th in passing and 25th in rushing. The numbers for the decision are as follows:
- Go for it: Green Bay has a GWC of 90.7%.
- Punt: Green Bay has a GWC of 72.6%.
If Green Bay converts a first down with exactly 1 yard, and assuming Jacksonville uses its second timeout at 2:25, Green Bay’s win probability goes to 97.0%.
If Green Bay fails to convert, assuming they’re stopped at the line of scrimmage, Green Bay’s win probability drops to 63.5%. Since we don’t know the result of the punt prior to the play, we’ll assume a punt that is around JK Scott’s net average of 37 yards. So, with a punt to Jacksonville’s 40-yard line, Green Bay has a GWC of 68.5 percent.
Risk: 68.5% - 63.5% = 5%
Reward: 97.0% - 68.5% = +28.5%
Risk-Reward: 5 / (5 + 28.5) = 14.9% Required Success Rate
In that scenario, the required success rate is below the 70% expected conversion rate of an average NFL team on fourth-and-1. Considering the matchup between Green Bay’s offense and Jacksonville’s defense, Green Bay could realistically be expected to convert at a higher rate than this.
It’s also worth mentioning that if you “trust your defense,” then it’s worth the risk.
For the record, the Packers have converted an 18th-ranked 58.3 percent of the time on their third- and fourth-and-1 plays this season, including 1-of-3 vs. Jacksonville. The Jaguars have allowed a conversion rate of 61.5 percent.
As for LaFleur, he said going for it never crossed his mind. The defense rose to the occasion to clinch the victory.
“I did not consider it at the time. Nope,” he said. “And you know, fortunately we were right. So, that’s all I’ve got to say about that.”
