Grading Packers on Salary Cap Curve: Watson and Receivers

In the third of a series of season-ending report cards, we look at the Green Bay Packers’ receivers through the lenses of performance and the salary cap.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jan 19, 2023 5:55 PM EST
Original:
Jan 19, 2023

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers traded All-Pro Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and bet Aaron Rodgers could keep the offense humming with Sammy Watkins and three draft picks asked to pick up the slack.

It was a fool’s errand.

In Year 1 in Vegas, Adams caught 100 passes for 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns. Watkins and the rookies combined for 101 receptions for 1,324 yards and 11 touchdowns.

“I feel like obviously losing Davante was a big deal. We didn’t fill that void. Nobody can. He’s super-human. He’s phenomenal,” Rodgers said after the season-ending loss to Detroit. “There was hope in certain things that were going to fill that void. Ultimately, that just didn’t happen.

“The things we were able to do, I think, may have been taken for granted at times because we were able to create so many different things in the moment over the years and, especially the last couple of years, because not much changed other than his absence from the lineup.”

For what it’s worth, only five teams spent less money on their receivers than the Packers. Of the bottom seven spenders, only one (Baltimore) qualified for the playoffs.

Here is Part 3 of our annual series of player grades as viewed through the lens of the salary cap. All cap figures are from OverTheCap.com. Analytical stats are from Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions.

Randall Cobb ($4.15 million; 45th among receivers)

Randall Cobb finished sixth on the team with 34 receptions, which he turned into 417 yards and one touchdown. He missed four games due to a high-ankle sprain. It was, as he put it, a “very significant injury” but he’s got too much pride to stay down for long.

Cobb caught 70.8 percent of targeted throws, averaged 5.6 yards after the catch and 1.67 yards per route, and had two drops (5.6 percent). It all was about on par with the 12th-year pro’s career averages. Certainly, he was a better option in the slot than former third-round pick Amari Rodgers, who didn’t even get through his second season.

Two interesting notes. One, during the final six games, Cobb caught 10 passes for 87 yards. Not that he should have been the focal point of the offense but he needed more chances. Two, Cobb forced four missed tackles, tied for tops on the team but emblematic of a receiver corps that didn’t provide enough juice. Davante Adams forced 16 missed tackles; more than the entire Packers’ receiver corps.

Cobb, who will turn 33 during training camp, is headed to free agency. Rodgers was right to want him back for the 2021 season. He’s probably right to want him back for 2023, as well.

Grade: D-plus.

Allen Lazard ($3.98 million; 49th among receivers)

Thrust into a bigger role following the offseason trade of Davante Adams, Allen Lazard led the team with 60 receptions for 788 yards and was second with six receiving touchdowns in 15 games. An undrafted free agent in 2018 who the Packers swiped off Jacksonville’s practice squad late in his rookie season, Lazard has built himself into a legitimate player. It’s not his fault that he didn’t perform like a No. 1, the role in which Aaron Rodgers hyped him for at the start of camp.

Depending on who’s doing the counting, he had four (PFF) or five (SIS) drops. Going with PFF, of 84 receivers targeted at least 48 times, Lazard’s drop rate of 6.3 percent ranked 51st. On interceptions thrown to receivers, five of the seven were directed to Lazard. Oddly, the team went 2-4 when he scored a touchdown and 2-5 when he was targeted at least seven times.

There weren’t many explosive runs that didn’t include No. 13 doing the dirty work.

Should Lazard be a No. 1 receiver? Of course not. But there isn’t a team in the NFL who wouldn’t take the free-agent-to-be on its roster. He might not be a great receiver but he is a very good football player.

Grade: C.

Christian Watson ($1.68 million; 87th among receivers)

It was a tale of three seasons for Christian Watson, the team’s ridiculously talented second-round pick.

Slowed by an early-season hamstring injury, Watson caught 10-of-14 passes for 88 yards during the first nine games of the season. He just couldn’t get on the field and stay on the field. Then came one of the most ridiculous stretches in NFL history. After dropping two passes in Game 10 against Dallas, he rebounded and scored three touchdowns. He added two scores vs. Tennessee, one during a late rally at Philadelphia and the clinching touchdown run vs. Chicago to give him seven touchdowns in four games.

Nobody can play to that level over a sustained stretch. During the four-game winning streak, Watson failed to reach 50 receiving yards in any of the games. During the finale against Detroit, when the Packers really needed someone to rise to the occasion, Watson caught 5-of-6 passes for 104 yards and added two carries for 12 more yards.

Whether he got the ball or not, he’s so talented than opposing defenses need to keep tabs on him on every play. He’s also a quality blocker, no surprise considering how he was used at North Dakota State.

There are two keys moving forward. One is staying healthy. Watson had knee surgery following the offseason practices and missed time with hamstring, head, ankle and hip injuries. The other is catching the ball. He was guilty of five drops. Of 84 receivers targeted at least 48 times, Watson’s drop rate of 10.9 percent ranked 80th. However, he had 19 catches and zero drops the last five games. And, of note, he caught 9-of-12 contested passes, that 75.0 percent success rate tied for second in that group of 84.

Watson’s rookie season was quite the appetizer. With that breathtaking speed exhibited on long touchdowns vs. the Cowboys, Eagles and Bears, the main course looks delectable.

Grade: B.

Sammy Watkins ($1.51 million; 93rd among receivers)

Injured players get injured. So, it was no shock that Sammy Watkins was injured. His fragile hamstrings just can’t withstand the rigors of the NFL. It’s too bad. He’s an engaging personality and team player.

Watkins’ 55-yard catch against Chicago in Week 2 helped clinch a key victory. But he spent the next four games on injured reserve and wasn’t heard from until delivering the key block on Christian Watson’s clinching touchdown run against Chicago in Week in Week 13. He was released a few days later.

He finished with 13 receptions for 206 yards, two drops and zero missed tackles.

Grade: F.

Romeo Doubs ($875,979; 156th among receivers)

With Christian Watson unable to stay in the lineup, it was the fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs who looked like the star rookie. In his first eight games, he had four-plus receptions in five games, five catches of 20-plus yards and three touchdowns.

Then came an ankle injury at Week 9 – a questionable tackle by Detroit’s Kerby Joseph – that sidetracked the rest of his season. After a four-game stint on injured reserve, Doubs caught 11-of-17 passes for 112 yards and zero touchdowns in the final four games. He dropped both opportunities in the finale vs. Detroit, though neither was an easy opportunity.

Doubs finished the season with 42 receptions for 425 yards and three scores, the catch count ranking fifth among the rookie class. Of his catches, 31 were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage – including 11 behind the line. That’s the domain of run-after-catch players. Doubs forced one missed tackle. Moreover, he ranked 71st in contested-catch situations (5-of-15; 33.3 percent) and 77th in drop rate (five drops; 10.6 percent).

It's easy to see Watson developing into a star. It takes a bit more imagination for Doubs. He’s got the skill and demeanor, though, to make it happen.

Grade: C.

Samori Toure ($724,253; 194th among receivers)

Samori Toure looked like he could be a second-half-of-the-season factor when he hauled in a 37-yard touchdown at Buffalo in Week 8 and made an acrobatic, tumbling catch during Green Bay’s frantic rally at Detroit in Week 9. But he was thrown just one pass, a 7-yard catch at Chicago, in 51 snaps the rest of the season. Not even the last-season dumping of Sammy Watkins could get the former “Capt. Casual” on the field.

Toure finished the season with five receptions (10 targets) for 82 yards and one touchdown in 112 snaps.

A big camp awaits. It is a crowded receiver room with the late-season addition of seventh-round rookie Bo Melton meaning four 2022 draft picks.

“I’m definitely happy with my progress,” Toure said late in the year. “My hard work is coming to fruition. If you have good practice habits and you’re doing everything the right way with your routine, it shows.”

Grade: D.

100 Days of Mocks

Starting Jan. 17, when there were 100 days until the start of the NFL Draft, we started our mock-worthy goal of 100 mock drafts in 100 days. Here’s the series.

100 days: First-round quarterback?

99 days: Trading for outside linebacker

98 days: Stud tight end