Green Bay Packers Overreactions Following 2-2 Start
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have reached the unofficial quarter pole of the 2023 NFL season, their 2-2 record befitting a team that’s been mediocre or worse in every phase of the game.
- After a hot start to the season, Jordan Love is 17th in passer rating.
- While the Packers are 13th in scoring differential (plus 1.0 per game), they are 23rd in yardage differential (minus-71.8 per game).
- They’re 19th in yards per play on offense, 13th in yards per play on defense and plus-1 in turnovers.
Coming off an ugly loss to the Detroit Lions and with a Monday night game at the Las Vegas Raiders coming up, here are three overreactions.
1. Offense Has Been Too Aggressive
The quarterback is a first-year starter. The quarterback’s passing-game targets are rookies or second-year players. The offensive line is a train wreck, highlighted by the absence of one of the game’s top blind-side pass protectors.
Yes, I get it, Aaron Jones has been hurt and defenses have been lining up to take away the running game. But Green Bay has been too aggressive on offense given its shortcomings.
Over the last three weeks, the Packers have run the ball just 34.5 percent of the time. That’s the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. In back-to-back home games, that’s down to 30.7 percent.
It’s not just the play selection, which the last two weeks was impacted by the scoreboard.
Love’s 10.31 air yards per attempt is the highest in the NFL by more than a half-yard. Midway through training camp, Love “bringing back the checkdown” was a story. Please. Green Bay’s running backs have been targeted 17 times in four games. Only two teams’ backs have been less involved in the passing game.
Of 34 qualifying passers at Pro Football Focus entering Sunday’s games, Love is 28th in percentage of passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage and 29th in passes thrown 0 to 9 yards downfield but in the top five in percentage of passes 10 to 19 yards downfield and 20-plus yards downfield.
Love needs some easy completions, not to boost his completion percentage or to give him some confidence, but to give him some easy yards so it’s easier to move the chains.
The Packers' Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur talk vs. the Lions.
Photo by Dan Powers/USA Today Sports Images
2. New Mentality Needed on Defense
The Packers have 100 first-round picks on defense or some such number. That unit isn’t the sum of its parts and hasn’t been for years.
Either general manager Brian Gutekunst is missing on too many picks, the position coaches are doing a terrible job of coaching them up or defensive coordinator Joe Barry isn’t playing to their strengths.
Maybe it’s a little of everything. But, more than that, where’s the attitude? Why is the run defense bad year after year after year? Coach Matt LaFleur said his players have the ability to stand up to the physical style employed by the Lions, but that hasn’t been the case.
To fix the chronically terrible run defense, LaFleur suggested some schematic changes could be coming, such as putting a safety into the box. That probably would be helpful. But it’s more than X’s and O’s. It’s attitude. Running plays, both offense and defense, are about re-establishing the line of scrimmage. Which unit is going to impose its will? Which unit is going to push the other unit where it doesn’t want to go?
Ron Wolf signed Reggie White. Ted Thompson signed Charles Woodson. Gutekunst needs to make that kind of move this offseason – not necessarily the Hall of Fame talent but the heart and passion and desire and charismatic leadership. And LaFleur needs to find a defensive coordinator that is less about the scheme du jour and more about instilling an ass-kicking mentality.
3. Final Record: 7-10
Before the season, I predicted a 7-10 finish. While the fans remain at least a bit more bullish, I’m sticking with that result.
Predictably, the offense has taken its lumps the last three weeks. There’s not much reason for that to change, especially without left tackle David Bakhtiari. When the Packers come out of their bye following Monday night’s game at the Raiders, maybe left guard Elgton Jenkins and right tackle Zach Tom will be past their knee injuries. That certainly would help.
Predictably, the defense has been knocked around, as well. There’s no reason why that should be the case given the on-paper talent but, until Green Bay can play winning defense on a weekly basis rather than just occasionally, there’s no reason to believe a unit that seems to have top-10 talent will actually deliver a top-10 performance.
There’s something wrong with a team that has forced 17 missed tackles – Love has a team-high four, by the way – while missing 33. That’s a 2-to-1 ratio in the wrong direction.
Maybe Rodgers really did serve as a giant Band-Aid.
Same as it’s been since the trade of Rodgers in April, this season is all about trajectory. We called this the Great Reset in March, and it holds true today.
So long as Love is trending the right way and all those young pass catchers are growing alongside him, this season will be a success. If the Packers can come out of 2023 with a firm belief that Love is the right man for the job, everything else will fall in line.
With at least some money to spend in free agency and what could be a high second-round pick coming from the Jets in the Rodgers deal, the assets will be there for this team to make a big jump forward in 2024.
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