Models Update Packers’ Playoff Prospects
GREEN BAY, Wis. – Will the Green Bay Packers rebound from Monday night’s loss and qualify for the NFL playoffs?
Nothing but the players will determine that, starting on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the latest computer models give the Packers about a 50-50 chance of emerging from the giant muddled mass of mediocrity in the NFC.
The Packers’ playoff chances took a big hit with the loss to the Giants. At this time a week ago, when coach Matt LaFleur was warning everyone that his streaking team was really only a .500 team, Green Bay was about a two-thirds shot to reach the postseason.
“Every week, there’s going to be things” you’re unhappy with,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “It’s not going to be perfect you want to go out there and play your best, and I think it’s just about how we respond, how you move on to the next play, move on to the next game.
“It’s all about what we do this week, how we prepare throughout the week and obviously how we come out and play Sunday.”
Here’s what the computers say.
The Athletic: 57 percent to make the playoffs. By its modeling, only the Eagles have an easier closing schedule. Minnesota in Week 17 is the only team with a winning record, and it is playing with a revolving door of backup quarterbacks.
Pro Football Focus: 54 percent to make the playoffs, 5 percent to win the NFC North and 1 percent to win the Super Bowl. By its modeling, only the Eagles, Colts and Falcons have easier closing schedules.
Playoff Status: 51 percent to make the playoffs. Interestingly, they have a 25 percent chance to make the sixth seed and a 20 percent chance to stay at No. 7. That seems like a big deal. The No. 7 seed will play at the No. 2 seed (Dallas, at the moment) while the No. 6 seed will play at the No. 3 seed (Detroit, at the moment).
New York Times: 50 percent chance to make the playoffs. That would go up to 65 percent with a victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday but fall to 28 percent with a loss.
DraftKings Sportsbook: Green Bay’s playoff odds are +100. By implied probability, that means it has a 50 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Last week’s loss to the Giants was killer from an NFC North-championship perspective. At +3000, that’s an implied probability of 3.2 percent.
ESPN’s Power Football Index: 48.5 percent to make the playoffs. From there, they have a 14.5 percent chance of advancing to the divisional round.
NFL.com: 47 percent to make the playoffs. That would move to 62 percent with a win over the Buccaneers but plunge to 23 percent with a loss.
Power Rankings Guru: 45.7 percent to make the playoffs. They have the third-easiest closing schedule and have played the 11th-easiest schedule.
Team Rankings: 45.6 percent to make the playoffs.
Number Fire: 43.3 percent to make the playoffs. That’s the eight-best in the NFC, behind Tampa Bay and Atlanta, which are vying for NFC South supremacy, but just ahead of the Rams, who are at 42.0 percent.
